Shocking Paywall Information
January 28, 2010
I read “After Three Months, Only 35 Subscriptions for Newsday’s Web Site” and did a double take. If I lived in New York, I would definitely subscribe to Newsday’s Web site to keep up with the local information about the newspaper itself. My recollection is that it is a pretty exciting place with a buzz that keeps everyone on his or her toes. But I live in Kentucky, and I don’t think I will be spending money to read Newsday. I am not alone. According to the article:
So, three months later, how many people have signed up to pay $5 a week, or $260 a year, to get unfettered access to Newsday.com? The answer: 35 people. As in fewer than three dozen. As in a decent-sized elementary-school class. That astoundingly low figure was revealed in a newsroom-wide meeting last week by publisher Terry Jimenez when a reporter asked how many people had signed up for the site. Mr. Jimenez didn’t know the number off the top of his head, so he asked a deputy sitting near him. He replied 35.
Wow.
Stephen E Arnold, January 28, 2010
A freebie. Who would pay me to summarize this astounding result. I will report this sad fact to the National Institutes of Health, an outfit that understands health.
Financeoid Pushes Business News Aggregation Forward
January 27, 2010
Business information is important but difficult to index. On the surface, business information appears to be a less-than-demanding type of content. Some publishers embed ticker symbols. Others stuff in metatags. The problem, however, boils down to language. Marketing mavens are quick to invent new words, spell names in a weird way, and cook up bizarre coinages to create consulting buzz. (A good example of this appeared in the Wall Street Journal on january 25, 2010, page B7 in the article “Strategic Plans Lose Favor.” That was a buzzword fest in my opinion.)
Now there is Financeoid.com. I admit that I am not crazy about the name, but I can see that the service makes certain business information easily accessible. I have already dropped the hard copy subscription to the Financial Times, and I think my local newspaper subscription is next. If Financeoid shows some muscle, maybe I will drop the Wall Street Journal hard copy subscription. I find its information increasingly stale and feature oriented. Not what I want with my McVittie’s biscuit in the morning.
I suggest you take a look at a financial news aggregation service that pulls “financial news, tips, and advises [sic] from 15,000 financial/ business blogs.” Although still in shake down cruise mode, the service makes pretty clear that the traditional financial media may have to shift their hate gaze from Google to other online innovators. The service Financeoid.com is at http://www.financeoid.com.
The site calculates “karma” via a proprietay algorithm. The goslings and I think this is a quite interesting aggregation service. The company promises that it will offer additoinal aggregations in the future. Worth a look.
Stephen E Arnold, January 27, 2010
A free write up. I will report this to the Bureau of Labor. I am a slave to this blog. If I were younger, I could turn myself in for employee overwork.
Microsoft Fast Questioned by Ayna
January 27, 2010
A happy quack to the reader who sent me a link to a news story in Ayna. The headline was “Ayna Drops Fast Search Engine.” I have no way of knowing if the write up is balanced, but I want to capture the item so it doesn’t get away from me. According to the write up:
Ayna’s CEO, Adonis El Fakih, remarks “FAST solutions, sales, and support are not in sync with the changing tides or the available search choices out there, and wanted to keep the status quo, instead of stepping up to the plate and deliver a competitive product.” Ayna’s decision to drop FAST from its repertoire of technologies, came after months of deliberation with account managers and support services, which exposed the short comings of the platform and business attitude towards competing in the search space. Mr. El Fakih continued to say “…it is lamentable to loose an important investment in our core services, however we had no choice but to cut our loss and move on.”
Ayna is a search system serving users and customers in the Middle East. Among its services are Web indexing and mapping. You can access the Ayna service in English here. The French version is here. The main site is at http://www.ayna.com/index.ar.html.
Stephen E Arnold, January 27, 2010
Tess licked me this morning but I wrote this news item as a way to make a note for myself. I will report this bibliographic intent to the Library of Congress.
Search Market Growth Projection
January 26, 2010
Short honk: The addled goose enjoys collecting market projections. A remarkable one appeared in Silicon Republic in the story “Global Search Market Tipped to Grow 46 Percent.” The article cites the ever-reliable comScore and points out that “Bing is showing the most rapid growth”. Okay.
But the key number to me was in this passage:
The total worldwide search market boasted more than 131 billion searches conducted by people age 15 or older from home and work locations in December 2009, representing a 46-percent increase in the past year.
So, this is the 2008 to 2009 growth. The headline suggests that this is the growth for the future. I am confused about:
- What does “search” mean?
- The method of collecting the data: free or fee? Raw counts or numerical recipes?
- What will be the size at the end of 2011?
Stephen E Arnold, January 25, 2010
No one paid me to ask this question. I don’t know to whom to report questions. Perhaps I can call the USA hotline and inquire.
Mark Logic Taps Amazon
January 25, 2010
Cloud Computing “Mark Logic Leverages Amazon” reported that MarkLogic Server offers a cloud option. According to the write up said:
The move will obviously let customers use its widgetry on a pay-by-the-hour basis. A native XML database that implements the W3C-standard XML Query (XQuery) language, the server includes full-text and structured (XML) search. The AWS version consists of an Amazon Machine Image (AMI) with the MarkLogic Server pre-installed.
Mark Logic’s technology has demonstrated its versatility in a number of information-centric environments. With a client’s information within the MarkLogic Server environment, repurposing is a snap. In the last year, Mark Logic has emerged as an information infrastructure company that makes big boys like Oracle quite nervous. With the move to the cloud option, Mark Logic is poised for new services. Mark Logic’s technology exerts pressures on companies in business intelligence, enterprise publishing, and information portal services, among others.
When Larry Ellison worries, I take notice. Important step from Mark Logic.
Stephen E Arnold, January 25, 2010
Yes, I was given a free admission to the Mark Logic user conference in Washington, DC. No, I was not paid to point to this write up about the Sys-Con story. Yes, I will beg Mark Logic to throw large sums of money at me and the goslings the next time I see one of the firm’s senior managers or investors. I will report this intent to the FCC via this footnote. Wow, I feel so much better explaining that I am a shameless marketer.
The Blank Spaces in Social Media
January 25, 2010
For the last 14 months I have written a monthly column for Information World Review. I don’t recycle that information in this Web log. In fact, I try to steer clear of repeating information within and across my monthly columns and this Web log. I thought I would have a dearth of information with the writing demands these place upon me and the equally addled goslings.
I was wrong.
On February 1, 2010, we are going to create a second Web log with the very hot title of SSN. I won’t reveal what it is about. I can say that it will NOT discuss the social security numbering system. I am going to operate the information service as a test for several months. If we hit a comfortable stride, then we will shift from a public beta test to a full-scale operation.
Yes, we will accept advertising, advertorials, and other marketing tie ups. Some of the conventions of Beyond Search and the ArnoldIT.com services will be linked to the new Web log. No, we have not worked out the details, but one of the team is going to grab hold of this angle and manage this aspect of the new information service.
The broad topic area will fit between real time search (my Information World Review column), my Google write ups (the KMWorld column), and my area of expertise (large scale online search and systems). We will have the exact positioning hammered out by Wednesday of next week with the first content live online a few days later.
A Real Editor
The editor for this Monday through Friday Web log will be Jessica Bratcher, a former newspaper editor. She continues to instruct me in how “real” journalists work. I will never learn because I am a sales person with few skills and not much energy.
She has assembled a team of goslings to be who will follow the conventions of the Web log world with a heck of a lot more journalistic acumen than I bring to the write ups in this Web log.
The Content
The Web log will feature some new approaches to content germane to online information.
First, each week there will be a dialog about a particular online issue of interest to business professionals. The idea is to take a topic and look at it from different viewpoints. In Beyond Search, there is a single point of view, and we want to explore topics from different angles. The trope will be a semi-Socratic dialog involving my partners in this new, free online information service. Even though different people will be involved, you will recognize the dialog from its new icons:
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Notice that both icons represent squawking and noisy birds. The idea is to have an edge and present information a person involved in business will find somewhat useful.
Second, there will be lists. A traditional Web log forces certain content into a stack with the most recent information at the top and the older information buried at the bottom of the pile. The new Web log will put certain information—such as lists and reference information—on pages that are static. We think you will find it easier to locate some of the special content we are gathering for this new information service.
Google Teeter Tottering?
January 25, 2010
I don’t want to make a big deal of the Google financial results that produced a decrease in Google’s share price. I don’t want to mention the alleged eclipsing of Google by Facebook in traffic in December 2009. I don’t want to comment on the decision of Messrs. Brin and Page to sell off their shares, effectively giving up their toe lock on Googzilla. I don’t want to point to the dust up between Google and the nation state of China, an outfit with a field work directorate and real weapons, not algorithms. I don’t want to point to the legal hassles in the US with the cranky Viacom. I don’t want to comment on the legal issues in Italy. I don’t want to mention the quite enchanting notion of the French tax authorities dinging Google for some Euros. I don’t want to point out that Google has sprawled across most business services where computer efficiency disrupts existing business models unintentionally. That’s a lot of “don’ts”. If Google were on a teeter totter, the perch seems precarious. What if the kids just jump off?
I want to make three observations.
Last week in Europe (a country with lots of consonants in its name) there was some idle chatter about the backlash that is building against Google. Cheery logo and nifty mouse pads aside, Google is giving some of the folks with whom I spoke nightmares. One recent example is revealed in “German Media Tag-Teaming Against Google ‘Monopoly’”. Read the original for the scoop, but the headline makes the point. Big outfits have to link up to have a shot—note a single shot—at dealing with things Googley.
Second, the abrogation of control makes clear that the Google has morphed beyond the original vision of organizing the world’s information. What has become clear is that non-logical factors are looming ever larger. The abrogation of control is a hint that the “logic” of the original Google may not be enough. The prudent punt I suppose. This decision is important because it means that in a few years, Google will operate like the “old” GM or General Electric, and we know how that model works.
Third, the disruption caused by Google is gaining momentum. A pull out of Google or even the dissolution of Google itself cannot bring back the pre-Google world. I argued this point in The Google Legacy in 2004 (published in 2005). I remember one Harvard grad pointing out that a six year old company doesn’t have a legacy. I pointed out that I may live in Harrod’s Creek, but I did not just fall off the turnip truck. His failure to understand what Google’s technical shaping of the DEC AltaVista insight and the injections of cleverness from research computing would mean. I think that fellow is now a Wal*Mart greeter. Investment banking and blue chip consulting jobs are not what they once were I understand.
Add up these three factors, and we have a road map for what’s ahead in the next three to five years:
- Geo-political actions as a result of technology. Forget cyber warfare. That’s just the visible stuff.
- Massive disruptions of existing business methods and models. The fate of the traditional publishing sector is just the beginning of even more significant dislocations.
- The emergence of those weird distributions where a handful of entities control 90 percent or more of the resources.
Google will remain a player, but it will be further marginalized in some important sectors. To find out which sectors, you will have to wait until I complete my next Google monograph. Exciting stuff.
Stephen E Arnold, January 24, 2010
A freebie. I suppose this is a write up that promotes my new Google study. It won’t be a “Sergey and Larry eat pizza” type monograph. I may even give it away free. I will report this to one of my five publishers if any remain in business by the time I complete the writing.
Autonomy and Precise Team Up
January 24, 2010
Autonomy continues to sniff trends and move before other players in the enterprise search and content processing space. I saw a short announcement on Sharecast (a service with more weird pop ups than most Web sites I visit) that said:
Search software firm Autonomy is teaming up with UK-based media intelligence outfit Precise to develop and market next-generation media intelligence services to the public relations and communications sectors.
Autonomy is well known to readers of this Web log. Precise may not be. Here’s a quick run down on that outfit:
- The company is in the “media intelligence” business. This is somewhat similar to the old style Bacon’s clipping service put on steroids.
- The company has more than 5,000 customers and a big chunk of them are in the financial services and information sector. The idea is that media monitoring provides open source information that Precise converts into intelligence about what a company will or may do. This is the enterprise version of government intelligence agency operations.
- The chief information officer comes from the real time information side of the business. (This suggests to me that Autonomy is deep into the real time content processing spaghetti.)
- The company’s description of its services sounds almost Googley: “Our Media Portal allows our clients to view and evaluate the impact of coverage from every media source – print, broadcast, online. In addition they can access forward planning data at the touch of a button.”
My take on this is that Autonomy will be nosing into other real time information sectors as well. Some of the incumbents may find that Autonomy’s marketing and its corporate clout will push them out of their comfortable positions. Who will be affected by Autonomy if it moves in this direction? That’s a good question.
Stephen E Arnold, January 24, 2010
A freebie. No one paid me to write about this tie up. I suppose I shall report this sad fact to MARAD, an outfit that knows about brown water tie ups.
Will Online Revenue Return the NYT to Wall Street Glory?
January 24, 2010
In my opinion, the NYT’s online charging plan may not return the NYT to Wall Street glory? My instincts were confirmed when I read the interesting article by Erick Schonfeld. The story “The New York Times’ Online Meter Will Hardly Move The Needle” works through some assumptions about online revenue for the NYT. The net net for the analysis is that the NYT may not make much headway in traffic or online revenue. I agree. But the addled goose has several observations to make about any online revenue projection. I am not disagreeing Mr. Schonfeld. I want to add some color to the challenge of generating revenue online.
Will the NYT’s plan for online fees create a triumphal moment for the company? Source: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_gcgZo60Vlvo/RtmLbS2ttmI/AAAAAAAAAPY/nnlQN2aQSG0/s400/Arc_De_Triumph_Flag.jpg
The Need for Big Money
First, the NYT has to generate more money from online than Mr. Schonfeld’s analysis outlines. The reason is that increasing costs in the NYT’s other businesses forces new revenue streams have to outperform expectations. If not, the NYT will continue to suffer revenue pressure. In my model of online pricing, I include such factors as the increase in G&A costs, rising costs for consumables, and increased sales and marketing costs. If online performs at a level consistent with Mr. Schonfeld’s analysis, the NYT will have no choice but find other revenue or just get much smaller. Drastic steps may be need to get the NYT back on the investors’ must-buy list. Will the 2011 target and the revenue from online make this happen? No in my opinion. Cost control will be the killer.
Second, an online product is different from a print product. The audience or customer typically reacts in a way unique to online. The result is that different products and services are needed. In my experience, the domain expertise of print and traditional audio or video programming cannot be quickly or economically repurposed. More that technology is a challenge. The “deep knowing” is different for print and online.The people right for print or traditional media may not be the ones for online. A core competency, it is producing content using a scheduled, serial method. Online and the new audio and video distribution channels require different methods and different “deep knowings”.
Third, the NYT’s online product– like that of the WSJ and the FT for that matter– is going to get some oomph or an “X” factor. Today I reviewed for a client the now defunct or at least non responsive FT Newssift.com (you may get a 404). The FT has not been able to leverage its global brand with its successive “reinventions” of its online service. Newssift.com was to be a new approach using nStein, Endeca, and Lexalytics. I don’t think it worked. The WSJ as well as the FT and NYT present news and information is a way shaped by their print siblings. Putting print online works to a degree but more is needed to make online generate the type of revenue the NYT needs. The NYT, like other newspapers containing more general interest information, my not be be “must have” content for a big chunk of Web users. The problems are the users and the Web medium. Where’s the hot service that makes NYT content the cat’s pajamas.
Here are some items from my notes about traditional publishing and online:
ITEM. Thomson Reuters jumped into for fee online by buying Dialog Information Services. Thomson Reuters jumped out of online by selling at a hefty discount the Dialog for fee online service to a unit of Cambridge Scientific Abstracts. Thomson Reuters is a canny outfit. Net net: online is a tough sector for experts like the Thomson Reuters’ management team which saw problems in traditional publishing a long time ago, tried online and did serious reengineering, and now is moving in new directions such as value added software and services plus information. Will the NYT follow in Thomson Reuters’ footsteps?
ITEM. Newsstands, book stores, and NBC face difficult market hurdles. Without a viable traditional distribution mechanism, the traditional business models don’t work very well. As a result, the traditional producers of content must raise prices, cut staff, and find new products to sell. The result is that both the buyers and the distribution channels for traditional products are constricting. In short, market realities are going to increase the financial pressure on traditional publishers, not reduce it.
ITEM. Individuals who used to work at traditional publishing companies now have to find a way to make money. The result is that there are some skilled journalists who write blogs, create content for outfits like Demand Media, or who go to work for a company and write white papers. The challenge is that as the volume of digital information goes up, algorithms not human editors can make sense of this information. With more humans writing and algorithms making decisions, what’s the money making niche for the traditional publisher?
Why do Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo focus on online advertising, fees, and other charging methods? My hunch is that these three companies focus on getting revenue, not applying traditional publishing business models to their information businesses.
Stephen E Arnold, January 23, 2010
Yep, another freebie. I was on the phone from Europe with a client on another continent. I was paid to talk, but not about traditional publishing. I will report this failure to bill for this write up to the closest US embassy.
IBM Mainframe PR at Odds with Reality
January 23, 2010
I am on record as loving mainframes. However, smart outfits find other ways to crunch petabytes of data quickly without the costs, hassles, and peculiarities of mainframes. Even today, when I hear or read the word “mainframe” I think of disc crashes that could send chunks of metal into cabinet sides, JCL, and moving wires to achieve performance boosts. I know that IBM’s PR group wants me to think Series z, Linux, and more fun than a day at Frye’s in Palo Alto. Won’t happen.
I read “IBM Mainframe Woes Continue with Big Q4 Drop” and said to myself, “The addled goose is not flying blind with regard to mainframes.” The story said:
System z mainframe revenue dropped 27% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period in the prior year. The Q4 results followed declines of 26% in the third quarter, 39% in the second quarter and 19% in the first quarter. IBM doesn’t provide revenue dollar amounts for individual server product lines, but the mainframe suffered the biggest decline within the company’s systems and technology group, which reported fourth quarter revenue of $5.2 billion, 4% lower than the previous year. The systems and technology group also includes storage, x86 servers and Power servers.
Google and even Facebook seem to be happy with their approach to petascale computing, and I don’t think mainframes figure in either company’s plans. Here are the reasons:
- Architecture. Still anchored in the late 1960s.
- Configuration. Really tedious.
- Performance. Expensive when compared to commodity set ups.
And search? You can still buy a STAIRS variant. Wow. IBM is mostly a consulting and services outfit. My hunch is that SAP and Microsoft will be following in IBM’s footsteps. Times are indeed shifting gears.
Stephen E Arnold, January 23, 2010
A freebie. No one has paid me a single penny to write about my affection for mainframes. I will report this to the House of Representatives who may not share my feelings for these gizmos from another era.
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