Google, Mobile, and Money: Can We Discern a Pattern, Connect Some Dots
May 31, 2011
I woke up early this morning mostly because the crows decided to have a Post Memorial Day celebration here in the hollow near Harrod’s Creek. Beautiful birds. Often their discourse reminds me of data about the success of Android, the lack of success at RIM, and the slow start Microsoft Phone 7 Windows Mobile edition has had. And Apple? Well, even the crows have iPhones in Kentucky.
What I found interesting was more data about the success/failure of Android and Apple in the mobile game. “Nielsen: Android’s Lead Over iOS May Have Stopped Growing” reports that Android is popular “but no more than it was in March [2011].” You can work through the numbers which are based on Nielsen’s survey results. Note that Nielsen is hedging its bets on its results. My experience is that the results are often driven by the needs of marketing and sales and not so much what I want to know.
I want to connect the dots, but I am not sure what’s happening. Source: http://corknuts.tumblr.com/
Here’s the passage I noted on my trusty iPad:
The Android Revenue Rocket and Gravity
May 30, 2011
The Android blast off has been spectacular. In the span of 24 months, Android is everywhere. Poor Apple. Although the company is rolling in dough, its mobile market share has been kicked to the curb by Googzilla. Everything Apple did as an innovator has migrated to the Googleplex. With mobile search accounting for a significant amount of Web traffic, Google is the winner.
Well, that’s what it looks like to some former Web masters, art history major who have become consultants, and poobahs focused on poopahing.
Then there is “Why It’s Harder to Make Money on Android than on Apple’s iOS.” I don’t put much effort into tracking the musings of Time Warner, but I did find this article interesting.
The data in the story came from an outfit called Distimo. I have a healthy skepticism for most sampled data related to anything Webby. You can read the original write up to get the numbers and specific numbers each appears to be.
Here’s the key point in my opinion:
Roughly Drafted’s Dilger, an Apple partisan who clearly has a stick in this fire, suggests that the rapid ascendance of the Android Market is an illusion. Android may be gaining in sheer volume, he says, but not in quality. He quotes the app guidelines Apple issued last September:
“We have over 250,000 apps in the App Store. We don’t need any more Fart apps. If your app doesn’t do something useful or provide some form of lasting entertainment, it may not be accepted.”
Google has no such policy, Dilger writes. “All one has to do is pay a fee and shovel junk into its online listings. Suddenly it’s obvious why Google is ‘beating’ Apple in free titles: 134,342 to 121,845 according to Distimo: they’re only comparing Fart Apps, ringtones and wallpapers. Of course Google is winning in that regard.”
The bottom line on the write up is that Android developers are not exactly rolling in cash–yet. Other observations:
- “Controlled chaos” has to demonstrate that it works better than Apple’s control method
- Android needs to produce some vocal, developers who are rolling in dough before the developers look for more lucrative things to do
- Fragmentation and the telecommunications industry’s penchant for doing proprietary things to benefit themselves reduces Google’s span of control.
Stephen E Arnold, May 30, 2011
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, the resource for enterprise search information
Can Clever Can Backfire in the Google, PayPal Affair?
May 28, 2011
I read “PayPal-Google Lawsuit Reveals More About How Android Market Deal Went Awry.” The article did a good job of summarizing how one giant company did what appears to be standard Silicon Valley recruitment and another big outfit’s letting legal eagles do their flapping and screaming.
Job hopping in America is as much a part of the American way as the Indy 500 where a team can pay to get a driver in the race or donate to Mother Teresa to make her focus her attentions on some other target. (Keep in mind that Ryan Hunter-Reay failed to quality, but we will be in the race because of the “replacement rule”, Mario Andretti, and, of course, his “pull”.)
Is the Google PayPal dust up just a case of Mother Teresa’s approach being applied in a Silicon Valley context? My view: An unfortunate misunderstanding with no relation to the hiring matter of Kai Fu Lee in 2005. See http://goo.gl/YKSh1
In most cases, I would ignore the issue. Google is an online ad outfit which, after 12 or 13 years, is somewhat clumsily trying to diversify its revenue base. After so many fits and starts, I check out the GOOG every two or three days, leaving the day-to-day roll outs (Scribe) and product terminations (Google Translate API) to the writers who contribute stories to Beyond Search and Inteltrax and my other Web logs.
And PayPal? My efforts to make sure PayPal has one version of my name which variously appears as Steve, Stephen, or the fascinating Stephene has driven me from the service. Navigation of PayPal out Facebooks Facebook is weird access methods. I have permanently blocked anything with the string paypal due to my ISP’s inability to cope with the stream of spam sent by whoever likes PayPal more than I.
I must make an exception this morning, however. In the “Awry” article, I noted this passage:
What we had heard prior to the lawsuit from sources connected to the deal is that Google had wanted to white-label Paypal inside Android Market — a condition which would have been absurd for Paypal to accept. There was also internal tension over which group, Tilenius’ commerce team or Andy Rubin’s Android team, would have control over any payments solution inside the app store.
If accurate, this is a cake-and-eat-it-too tactic, and it is very clever. Learn stuff, get the juices flowing, and then consider the question, “Heck, why don’t we just build out own”?
What was left out of the write up was a reference to the Google Yahoo (Overture) dust up prior to Google’s initial public offering. My recollection is that Google settled an allegation of improperly obtaining inspiration from the Overture (formerly GoTo.com) online ad system. The number $1.0 billion is zooming across my radar. Suffice it to say, if I remember an antecedent to the PayPal allegation, it went away after the application of that American folk medicine, money.
With online advertising going up again, if ClickZ is right in its assertion that “Internet Ad Revenues Soar 23 Percent in Q1”, the Google has plenty of cash to hire anyone it wishes to hire, pay almost any amount to make an allegation take a vacation in Capetown, South Africa, and move forward with the Google revenue diversification efforts.
My question: “Why after about 12 years of effort, has Google NOT been able to diversify its revenue base?”
And a related questions: “Why get snarled in another messy, high profile matter where ‘clever’ wanders toward to the line separating Mother Teresa and Arkadi Gaydamak?”
What marks will these probably unfounded allegations against Google leave on the company’s flawless skin? See http://goo.gl/dlrDM
I had a Calvert Course teacher in Brazil in the 1950s who told me, “I would prefer as friend a good man ignorant than one more clever who is evil too.” This sounds like a statement from a drug crazed poet or malaria stricken American earning pinga money by tutoring.
Clever, though. That’s why I prefer old fashioned methods such as a physical wallet and cash money in my pocket.
Stephen E Arnold, May 28, 2011
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, the resource for enterprise search information and current news about data fusion
Azure Chip Outfit Snags Apple Jargon
May 25, 2011
We were amused when we read “The “Post-PC” Era: It’s Real, But It Doesn’t Mean What You Think It Does.” We echo leaders and authors with relentless undergraduate enthusiasm. However, when there is a catch phrase from Fortune Magazine’s poster boy for the successful company leader, we toss in more than a casual reference. We wallow, grovel, and whine. Hey, we want the work that flows from our sycophancy.
An azure chip consulting firm (there may be no blue chips any longer) inked a write up describing a post-personal computer era that has desk tops in the horse-and-buggy section of my local horse farm.
We learned that Apple now claims they get a “majority of their revenue from “post-PC devices,” including the iPod, iPhone, and iPad. This is a milestone for a company that was originally named “Apple Computer.”
What does this mean?
The consultant explains that PC’s aren’t dead, computer technology is simply shifting from:
stationary to ubiquitous” (computing at your desk vs. done anywhere, anytime); “formal to casual” (on/ off contrasted to always on); “arms-length to intimate” (from your desk to anywhere you go); “abstracted to physical” (mouse/ keyboard vs. voice sensors, camera recognition, etc). These technological innovations fuel social change, and vice versa. As people conduct more of their lives online—shopping, banking, entertainment—we require more computing in more places. The rise of social networking requires real-time connectivity to manage our relationships. And eroding work-life boundaries means that consumers demand devices that can do double-duty in their work and personal lives.”
We live in Blade Runner or 2001, folks. We can’t run and we can’t hide. We await the post pc wave report. Here in Harrod’s Creek we need professional guidance about the life raft, a snorkel, and—most important—our check book?
And search? Nary a word. Irrelevant.
Stephen E Arnold, May 25, 2011
Freebie unlike reports from most consultancies
AtHoc Enhancements
May 20, 2011
IWCE’s Urgent Communications reveals another angle on findability in “AtHoc Introduces New Emergency-Notification Applications.” A purveyor of “network-centric emergency mass notification systems,” AtHoc is adding new mobile apps to its notification platform. These resources make the most of today’s mobile devices as well as broadband wireless networks. The write up said:
What we’ve done over the last several months is develop an extension to our technology that uses the data channels of mobile devices, like smartphones, to communicate and integrate into our system,’ [AtHoc CEO and President Guy] Miasnik said. ‘It provides a much more prominent notification to the end user, including certain alarming sounds and vibrations … that were not feasible up to now as a standalone application. In addition, the new IWSAlerts applications enable location tracking of users and allow them to respond to the message, confirming receipt, Miasnik said.
What a welcome tool!
It’s also an intriguing development to us here at Beyond Search. Search is often too slow; in fact, one has to know something before searching. This is push on steroids, where the information materializes to the people who need it.
What happens to the search vendors reinventing themselves as customer support solution providers? They should look at AtHoc-type methods as a possible complement. In my opinion, key words just don’t work when time is short. Bing, Google, you listenin’. Just askin’.
Cynthia Murrell, May 20, 2011
Freebie
Is the Microsoft Internet Business Flailing in the Information Flood?
May 12, 2011
Microsoft took a long shot. The company bet $8.5 billion that Skype, a voice over Internet protocol leader, that Microsoft will be a big player in the next generation Web.
As appears to always be the case, numbers don’t lie but executives do. Microsoft’s online services division claimed growth in an earnings release recently but… as explained in Microsoft’s Internet Business Continues to Hemorrhage ,”Microsoft lost $726 million in the Online Services Division for the quarter. It was actually their worst quarter in two years in that regard. And it was their second worst ever, as Business Insider points out in their nifty chart perfect for showing such bloodbaths. And despite the year over year revenue growth, the income was actually down year over year. As in, they managed to lose more money despite bringing in more… And how’s this for a kick in the pants: if Microsoft had just scrapped their Online Services Division for the quarter, they likely would have beaten Apple in terms of profits once again. Instead, they’re over $700 million behind — behind, mind you, for the first time in a couple decades.
Of course, Microsoft can’t afford to scrap the Online Services Division (well, figuratively afford it, at least). Like every technology company, they know this is the key to the future. And that’s precisely why they’re dumping so much money into it.”
It isn’t all bad for Microsoft, though, as their Windows and Office businesses appear to be holding their own. But for how long? The competition is stiff and if Microsoft doesn’t make some changes, it won’t be pretty. Our expert Michael Onghai believes Microsoft is a value stock but it remains to be seen if there’s any saving grace outside of Office and any other bright spot they might claim. Have the glory day of MSFT passed ? It remains to be seen. And what about search? This core function seems to have slipped low in the priorities stack. What’s $1.2 billion for Fast Search & Transfer when compared to $8.5 billion for Skype?
Alice Wasielewski, May 12, 2011
Freebie
Protected: SharePoint and Mobile
May 10, 2011
Facebook to Skype Google
May 5, 2011
If true, Facebook is going to Skype the GOOG. Annoying? Not to me. To Google? On the surface, nah. Inside the Google cubicles? You bet. You can read “Facebook Buying Out Skype? $4 Billion Deal Being Talked About” and decide for yourself if the story is on the money. The story asserts:
By the way, if you are looking at going into what the $4 billion ‘possible’ takeover would bring to Skype, let us also take you to a situation where Skype had been mulling over an IPO. If you would remember, the Skype IPO was recently delayed by its new CEO until the second half of 2011. And that public offer would have brought to the Skype coffers only around $1 billion. Considering such a scene, the Facebook move, if at all that bears fruit, could mean a lot to Skype. We also hear Google too is looking at a venture with Skype. More details are awaited.
I will “await”. But with display ads humming along, lots of stateful users who spend hours being social, and now the Skype phone and video conference plus message thing. Wow. If the deal goes down, Google has to do some fancy dancing at this ice cream social.
Stephen E Arnold, May 5, 2011
Freebie
Fwix Positions Itself Carefully in Location Information Market
May 4, 2011
“Fwix Launches Read/Write Business Listings API,” announced ProgrammableWeb.com. Fwix’s aim is to incorporate businesses’ real-world location data into their application programming interface (API). By doing so, and doing so thoughtfully, Fwix hopes to claim the position of standard underlying geodata platform. The story said:
Fwix is committed to concentrating its efforts on three key aspects of its product. Having valuable content to offer based on location and a well-organized database of places are two of them. The third is a built-in monetization opportunity through an integrated location-based ad network. Shirazi says the major growth opportunities for Fwix are in the platform itself, so having a way to translate that growth into profitability is key. Rather than creating a barrier to adoption by charging for access in order to make money, Fwix is actually offering developers a share in revenue that its location network makes possible.
Smart, but Fwix isn’t the only company on this trail. Competitors such as CityGrid are pursuing similar tactics. Helping Fwix in its endeavor is database builder Factual, who is already building what they call “the definitive database of local businesses and points of interest from around the world.”
Is the future of local virtual consolidation of information and technical services? Perhaps the importance of the Fwix initiative is a Petri dish for achieving depth and breadth using multiple tie ups? One benefit we perceived is a sharp reduction in operational and other costs.
Cynthia Murrell, May 4, 2011
Freebie
The Definition of Open Moves Toward Closed
May 4, 2011
With a broken leg and ankle, I am not chasing around the mobile velodrome. I am kicking back and thinking about the use of language in the high-technology world. The question I pondered this morning (May 3, 2011) was, “What is the definition of open?” The thought was sparked when I read “Google Plays Ball with Carriers to Kill Tethering Apps, Violates Spirit of the ‘Open Access’ It Bid $4.6B to Protect.” The story does a good and gentle job of explaining that Google is working to some degree with telecommunications companies to limit certain mobile access functions. The particular function is irrelevant. The two big points, in my opinion, are:
- Open means closed. Okay, that’s normal Orwellian activity.
- Google, if the story is spot on, is beginning to look like a traditional Fortune 100 company, not a spunky start up.
I did like this passage in the Play Ball article:
Allow me to leave you with a quote from Android boss Andy Rubin that he made nearly two years ago while vehemently denying that there was any Market rejection of a Skype app: “We also look forward to the day when consumers can access any application,including VoIP apps, from any device, on any network.” I couldn’t agree more, Andy.
So what’s next? I like the idea of renting equipment, not owning it. I also find intriguing the vertical integration of the original AT&T and just about everything. How different is Google since the management shift? Well, if you cannot control costs, you have to take steps to protect revenue. Changing the meaning of a word like “open” is small potatoes. Next up? Rapprochement with China, perhaps?
Stephen E Arnold, May 4, 2011
Freebie unlike some mobile carriers’ services.
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