Crowdsourcing Intelligence Forecasts
November 5, 2012
It seems that spies, too, can jump upon the crowdsourcing bandwagon. Will they do so with a Bond-like flourish?
The BBC reports that “Intelligence Agencies Turn to Crowdsourcing.” The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (Iarpa) is searching for ways to tap into the much-lauded “wisdom of the crowds” to boost agencies’ ability to predict the future. Toward that end, they have helped research firm Applied Research Associates launch a Web site on which anyone can submit their predictions. The site aims to make the process fun, by awarding “reputation” points to those whose predictions come true, allowing them to advance through “missions.” Just what we need– a reason to root for that violent event we perceive simmering on the horizon! Wait. . . is this really such a good idea? I suppose I should just be glad it isn’t in the form of a video game. Yet.
Reporter Sharon Weinberger writes:
“The intelligence community has often been blasted for its failure to forecast critical world events, from the fall of the Soviet Union to the Arab Spring that swept across North Africa and the Middle East. It was also heavily criticized for its National Intelligence Estimate in 2002, which supported claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.
“Those failures raised larger questions about how the intelligence agencies come up with forecasts, which is usually a deliberative process involving a large number of analysts. The Iarpa project, known officially as Aggregative Contingent Estimation, is looking at whether crowdsourcing can result in more accurate forecasts about future events than those traditional forms of intelligence estimation.”
Well, I suppose it couldn’t hurt. Right?
See the article for more details, like the controls against skewed results and efforts to identify the most effective forecasters. I, like Weinberger, think the site’s disclaimer is worth noting: “Forecast topics are not related to actual intelligence operations.” Sure, we believe that.
Cynthia Murrell, November 05, 2012
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, developer of Augmentext
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