China Software Numbers: Suggestive If Accurate
January 28, 2020
DarkCyber spotted “China’s Leading Software Companies Report Rising Income.” The write up included some interesting, but difficult to verify, numbers:
- The companies in the sample generated US$118.5 billion of revenue from software business in 2018, 6.5 percent up from that of the top 100 companies a year ago.
- More than 30 companies saw revenue surging by more than 20 percent
- 14 of the companies in the sample had revenues above US$1.4 billion
- Aliyun, Alibaba’s cloud computing subsidiary, was number three on the list of 100 companies
- In the same period, these companies invested about US$25 billion in research and development, 12.6 percent higher than that of the top 100 companies in 2018.
And the killer number was, “Their average R&D intensity, the proportion of R&D expenditure to main business revenue, reached 10.1 percent, 2.2 percentage points higher than the average level of the software industry, the ministry’s data showed.”
Stephen E Arnold, January 28, 2020
Amazon Blockchain: How Secure?
January 27, 2020
This write up does not address Amazon’s blockchain innovations. We have a summary of our Amazon blockchain technology which points out specific systems and methods, the online bookstore has “invented” to make blockchain more secure. (Keep in mind, Amazon is the inventor of S3 buckets, which in some circumstances, are somewhat leaky.) You can get a copy of the free DarkCyber Amazon Blockchain report using the information at the end of this blog post.
The article “Trust No One. Not Even a Blockchain” suggests that one of the most hyped data management technologies may have a weakness. Technology experts are not fond of weaknesses. Technology is a solution, and solutions must not have fatal flaws like mere humans working at a giant company or in the semi isolation of a coffee shop.
The write up points out:
Similarly, just because a person claims to have uploaded all of her photographs to a blockchain—like Mila’s mother in Parker’s story—does not mean there are no other pictures from her life. Omitted data, bad data, too much data: These dynamics rob a blockchain of the claim of being a source of truth. Garbage in, garbage out. This concept in computer science means that an input consisting of flawed data will generate a flawed output. So it is with blockchain technology. We can record false claims on a blockchain. We can omit data. Suddenly, that source of truth does not appear so honest.
The essay concludes with this observation:
Distortion of reality is a growing threat. Deepfakes, synthetic videos that replace an image of one person with that of another, may soon become indistinguishable from authentic videos. Today, deepfakes may largely be used in the making of memes, face-swapping celebrities, but their proliferation will undoubtedly have major implications on everything from political campaigns to policies around pornography. What makes the threat of deepfakes so profound is that they render a medium formerly viewed as reliable—namely video—undependable. We cannot trust the very thing that we are supposed to trust. This constitutes the most substantial danger to a society’s notion of reality. If we are supposed to trust whatever is on a blockchain, then we are in trouble indeed. After all, the blockchain is only as good as the data we put on it.
Amazon’s blockchain inventions address the “control” of the information placed in the blockchain. That may give Amazon an advantage in the policeware market.
If you want a copy of the DarkCyber executive summary for our 54 page report about Amazon’s blockchain and some of the implications of these inventions, send an email to darkcyber333 at yandex dot com. No charge for the summary. The full report, however, is not free.
Stephen E Arnold, January 27, 2020
Technical Debt: Less Like Tetris, More Like Ignoring Rotting Foundations
January 21, 2020
Googlers were chattering about technical debt years ago. I can’t recall the specific service which triggered a discussion about investing, patching, ignoring, or shuttering a service due to “costs.” The online ad giant was not the first mover in MBA/bean counter thinking about the resources consumed maintaining, enhancing, and changing the oil in its massive online systems.
DarkCyber noted “Technical Debt Is like a Tetris Game.” The write up is interesting, and the comparison in some ways is apt. However, video games are set up so that “winning” is often elusive. Dealing with technical debt in an organization is a bit different. The erosion often takes time and may be caused by wrapping the core software in more code. How often are substantive changes made to Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft services. Amazon recommends books the DarkCyber team has already read. Why not look up recommendations in the user’s list of Kindle purchases? An expense for technical debt or managerial indifference? Facebook routinely purges false accounts, but DarkCyber’s mascot has a Facebook page and posts infrequently and then via a software script. The page is still alive and kicking. Why not match user activity to an account and dump the dogs? Pun intended. Technical rot, not technical debt and who wants to lose a “user”? Google delivers irrelevant search results for many queries. Why not fix up the clever PageRank thing? Technical debt or the lack of programmers who want to plunge their hands into the terracotta tiles of the Stanford Mycenaean’s? And Microsoft? Why not make numbering work in Word or document the known dependencies in the Pharonic Fast Search & Transfer code.
These are not game scenarios. These examples are conscious choices to avoid fiddling with software developed decades ago. The premise appears to be that “good enough” is indeed the path to riches. DarkCyber believes that a failure to invest in foundations means that the structure will sag over time. If the structure collapses, the problems are not the death of colorful digital creatures. The implosion will affect humans. Not a game.
There is not money, time, and skilled personnel to remediate what’s chugging along. Decades, not weeks or months. Decades.
Stephen E Arnold, January 21, 2020
US China Deal: The Honeymoon Will Not Last Long
January 17, 2020
DarkCyber spotted a write up called “China Bracing for US Tech War with Plan to Cut Reliance on Imports of Key Components to Just 25 Per Cent.” If the information in the write up is accurate, the implications for certain countries and companies selling to China could be interesting. We noted this statement in the article:
China is aiming to increase its reliance on domestic production for key components, including chips and controlling systems, to 75 per cent by 2025, according to a former minister.
So a dollar spent by China to shore up its Great Firewall will allegedly become $0.25 in 60 months or less.
This statement seemed to more of a warning and less of an olive branch extended to the US:
The move, which includes a series of plans to improve weak links in the areas of hi-tech research and crucial component development “one by one”, is seen as part of China’s preparation for a intensifying technology war with the United States.
(“China Must Rein in SOEs to Gain Upper Hand in Tech War, Help Private Firms like Huawei to Innovate” provides some color on China’s desire to become the dominant technology player in the future.)
To support the knowledge sector, the write up reveals:
China will also increase the number of “national manufacturing innovation centers” to 40 by 2025 from 11 at the end of 2019 “to cover all major industries”. China’s first national manufacturing innovation centre was launched in 2016, focusing on making and researching electric vehicle batteries.
The concluding section of the write up states the obvious:
is increasingly clear that a technology rivalry between China and US is set to deepen…with competition in next generation communication, 5G and artificial intelligence key areas of contention.
Net net: A calm before the storm.
Stephen E Arnold, January 17, 2020
Software: Duct Tape Is the Fabric of Solutions
January 16, 2020
Polygon published “The Truth Is That Many Games Are Held Together by Duct Tape.” The write up explains that software is messy. Here’s one statement from the write up:
Time and time again, development stories of video games reveal that, because video games have so many different moving parts, from game design to sound, that things often don’t come together until the last possible second — if they come together at all.
We noted this passage as well:
Obviously, developers should care about game-breaking bugs, or anything that gets in the way of a player’s enjoyment of the experience, but as they say, perfect is the enemy of good.
DarkCyber has one issue with the article. The focus is narrow when it should be more inclusive. Microsoft Word numbering, Framemaker’s handling of color, iTunes inability to delete items, Android widget disappearance, and similar quirks have been nettlesome for years, and in some cases decades.
Good enough is the name of the game.
And to provide a light at the end of a very long tunnel: smart software and point and click programming will solve these problems. Sure enough.
Stephen E Arnold, February 16, 2020
Smart Software: Is Control Too Late Arriving?
January 4, 2020
I read “US Government Limits Exports of Artificial Intelligence Software.” The main idea is that smart software is important. The insight may be arriving after the train has left the station. The trusty Thomson Reuters’ report states:
It comes amid growing frustration from Republican and Democratic lawmakers over the slow roll-out of rules toughening up export controls, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, urging the Commerce Department to speed up the process.
And the reason (presented via a quote from an expert) seems to be “rival powers like China.”
I took a quick spin through other items in my newsfeed this morning, Saturday, January 3, 2020. Here’s a selection of five items. Remember. It’s Saturday and a day when many Silicon Valley types get ready for some football.
- A.I. Is Learning to Read Mammograms. Will Google keep this technology from other countries? Google is a stakeholder in One Medical. Publicly traded companies have to generate revenue. Will Google and One Medical ignore revenue opportunities?
- A free book “Dive into Deep Learning”. Will this information be limited in its distribution? What about code on GitHub?
- “This Startup Is Raising $7 Million for a Technology That “Can Authenticate People Based on Their Typing Style”. A non US company, now based in Brooklyn, uses AI to identify individuals. What if the technology returns to the land of its birthplace and seeks customers to the East?
- “Mirriad’s AI Slips Ads into Empty Spaces in Online Videos”. Will this Five Eyes’ participant prevent an advertising company from deploying its smart software into other solutions in other countries?
- “Build, Train, and Deploy a Machine Learning Model” Will Amazon limit access to its machine learning how-to content online, at conferences, and in college classrooms?
Not far from where I am writing this, more than 100 exchange students are working in teams to master a range of technologies, including smart software. One group is Chinese; another is German. Will the smart software encountered by these students be constrained in some way? What if the good stuff has been internalized, summarized, and emailed to fellow travelers in another country?
DarkCyber has a question, “Is it perhaps a little late in the game to change the rules?”
Stephen E Arnold, January 4, 2020
Trouble Ahead for Deep Fakes and Fancy Technology?
January 3, 2020
At a New Year’s get together, a person mentioned a review of the film “Cats.” I don’t go to movies, but the person’s comments intrigued me. I returned home and tracked down “How Cats Became a Box Office Catastrophe.”
I noted one sentence in the write which was:
We probably don’t need to remind you of the backlash the internet unleashed upon Cats the moment the Cats trailer dropped. Viewers gasped in horror as Universal’s vision of adding cat fur and features to the proportions of a human body was finally revealed. It was uncomfortable to look at, a clear example of the uncanny valley, where viewers are unsettled by artificially constructed beings that are just shy of realism.
The write then added:
Beyond subjective opinions, critics highlighted several issues including glitchy and unpolished CGI that could have been a result of its rushed production, that took place within a single year. In contrast, this year’s photo-realistic Lion King movie began work in 2016.
Two points: Backlash for the context and the “unpolished CGI.”
What happens when the rough hewn nature of other fantastical technology, swathed in investor hype and marketers’ misrepresentations, is understood?
Exciting for some in 2020.
Stephen E Arnold, January 3, 2020
Riding the Hypemobile for Quantum Computing
January 1, 2020
I am convinced that quantum computing will become a useful approach to solving certain types of problems. Google has already claimed the crown of big time quantum computerism. But IBM, by golly, is going to get to the top of the mountain. Too bad the mountain these outfits are confident flies their corporate flags are in China’s AI province. Yeah, China. Bummer.
But there’s hope for countries without big mountains like those like Amne Machin. No, Machin is not a corruption of machine.
Navigate to “Scientists At Lancaster University Use Legos In Quantum Computing Research.” The write up explains, albeit breathlessly:
Scientists at Lancaster University in England conducted an experiment in which they froze several Lego blocks to the lowest possible temperature, and what they discovered could be useful in the development of quantum computing.
Why?
Lego blocks could be used as thermal insulators. Note that some universities have quiet rooms, animals for students to pet, and counseling services available 24×7. Lego blocks, therefore, are likely to be abundant in some university facilities.
How did the experiment go? The write up reports without much enthusiasm:
“While it’s unlikely that Lego blocks per se will be used as a part of a quantum computer, we’ve found the right direction for creating cheap thermal insulators: 3D printing,” Zmeev [a quantum wizard] said. “Lego is made from ABS plastic and one can also create ABS structures simply by 3D printing them. We are currently studying the properties of such 3D printed structures at ultralow temperatures close to absolute zero.”
Ah, 2020 will usher in many insights into quantum computing which is, of course, just around the corner and may already be powering Google’s advertising machine.
Technology marches forward.
Stephen E Arnold, January 1, 2020
Emergent Neuron Network
December 31, 2019
I want to keep this item short. The information in “Brain-Like Functions Emerging in a Metallic Nanowire Network” may be off base. However, if true, the emergent behavior in a nanowire network is suggestive. We noted this statement:
The joint research team recently built a complex brain-like network by integrating numerous silver (Ag) nanowires coated with a polymer (PVP) insulating layer approximately 1 nanometer in thickness. A junction between two nanowires forms a variable resistive element (i.e., a synaptic element) that behaves like a neuronal synapse. This nanowire network, which contains a large number of intricately interacting synaptic elements, forms a “neuromorphic network”. When a voltage was applied to the neuromorphic network, it appeared to “struggle” to find optimal current pathways (i.e., the most electrically efficient pathways). The research team measured the processes of current pathway formation, retention and deactivation while electric current was flowing through the network and found that these processes always fluctuate as they progress, similar to the human brain’s memorization, learning, and forgetting processes. The observed temporal fluctuations also resemble the processes by which the brain becomes alert or returns to calm. Brain-like functions simulated by the neuromorphic network were found to occur as the huge number of synaptic elements in the network collectively work to optimize current transport, in the other words, as a result of self-organized and emerging dynamic processes.
What can the emergent nanowire structure do? The write up states:
Using this network, the team was able to generate electrical characteristics similar to those associated with higher order brain functions unique to humans, such as memorization, learning, forgetting, becoming alert and returning to calm. The team then clarified the mechanisms that induced these electrical characteristics.
DarkCyber finds the emergent behavior interesting and suggestive. Worth monitoring because there may be one individual working at Google who will embrace a nanowire implant. A singular person indeed.
Stephen E Arnold, December 31, 2019
Did You Know This Barn Burned 20 Years Ago?
December 30, 2019
Now let’s be positive. One can play games any time, any place. One can broadcast one’s thoughts any time, any place. One can find objective information any time, any place. What’s not to like?
Quite a bit, according to a newspaper which has tried for years to embrace zeros and ones. No, not embrace, love those zeros and ones. Navigate to “We’ve Spent the Decade Letting Our Tech Define Us. It’s Out of Control” and relive the old news: Barn burned. Horses killed or rustled. Amazon warehouse built on the site.
Yep, old news.
The write up states:
What this decade’s critiques miss is that over the past 10 years, our tech has grown from some devices and platforms we use to an entire environment in which we function. We don’t “go online” by turning on a computer and dialing up through a modem; we live online 24/7, creating data as we move through our lives, accessible to everyone and everything.
Obviously the newspaper continues to write about what happened quite a while ago. The history of online was set when online databases crushed traditional print indexes. Online outfits like Dialog, SDC, and even Dialcom for goodness sakes changed research and journal publishing. Did anyone notice? Sure, those disintermediated. But the nature of online information was evident by 1980. Let’s see, wasn’t that about 40 years ago.
But now we have a decade to consider.
The newspaper notes, almost with a little surprise:
We’ve spent the last 10 years as participants in a feedback loop between surveillance technology, predictive algorithms, behavioral manipulation and human activity. And it has spun out of anyone’s control.
The datasphere surprises, it seems. The basic law of online is that a monopoly structure is the basic protein structure of the digital world. It’s a surprise that once data flow through a system, those data must be logged. Logged data have to be analyzed. More data begets additional data. And there are other “laws” of online.
The venerable newspaper, with its begging for dollars please rendered in #ffff00 is reporting the news.
One problem: The news is really old. The new year is almost upon us. Maybe old news is just safer, easier, and more clickworthy than what is actually scrolling and swiping to the future.
Keep in mind that that Amazon delivery will arrive today.
Stephen E Arnold, December 30, 2019
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