eBook Sales to Grow
April 15, 2010
In a report from Goldman Sachs, analysts predicted growth in book sales. “U.S. Book Sales to Increase on E-Books, Goldman Says” included this statement: “Apple’s share of the e-book market will surge to 33 percent in 2015 from 10 percent this year.” Amazon, it seems, will see its share of e-book sales decline to 28 percent from 50 percent. Will e-books remain books, or will e-books morph into interactive media? Will authors of books be able to create products that will appeal to users of new devices like the Apple iPad? If publishers have to invest in software development, will increased costs of production put further pressure on author royalties?
Stephen E Arnold, April 15, 2010
Unsponsored post.
Google and Disruption: Will It Work Tomorrow?
April 15, 2010
Editor’s Note: The text in this article is derived from the notes prepared by Stephen E Arnold’s keynote talk on April 15, 2010. He delivered this speech as part of Slovenian Information Days in Portoroz, Slovenia.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I am most grateful for the opportunity to address this group and offer some observations about Google and its disruptive tactics.
I started tracking Google’s technical inventions in 2002. A client, now out of business, asked me to indicate if “Google really had something solid.”
My analysis showed a platform diagram and a list of markets that Google was likely to disrupt. I captured three ideas in my 2005 monograph “The Google Legacy“, which is still timely and available from Infonortics Ltd. in Tetbury, Glos.
The three ideas were:
First, Google had figured out how to add computing capacity, including storage, using mostly commodity hardware. I estimated the cost in 2002 dollars as about one-third what companies like Excite, Lycos, Microsoft, and Yahoo and were paying.
Second, Google had solved the problem of text search for content on Web pages. Google’s engineers were using that infrastructure to deliver other types of services. In 2002, there were rumors that Google was experimenting with services that ranged from email to an online community / messaging system. One person, whose name I have forgotten, pointed out that Google’s internal network MOMA was the test bed for this type of service.
Third, Google was not an invention company. Google was an applied research company. The firm’s engineers, some of whom came from Sun Microsystems and AltaVista.com, were adepts at plucking discoveries from university research computing tests and hooking them into systems that were improvements on what most companies used for their applications. The genius was focus and selection and integration.
Google is an information factory, a digital Rouge River construct. Raw materials enter at one end and higher value information products and services come out at the other end of the process.
In my second Google monograph, funded funded in part by another client, I built upon my research into technology and summarized Google’s patent activities between 2004 and mid 2007. Google Version 2.0: The Calculating Predator, also published by Infonortics Ltd., disclosed several interesting facts about the company.
Autonomy Amps Social and Rich Media
April 14, 2010
At the National Association of Broadcasters conference, Autonomy announced enhancements to the Virage MediaBin platform. The latest version of MediaBin “automatically forms a conceptual understanding of all rich media assets located in any internal or external repository, including social media, blogs, and videos.” Autonomy’s “meaning based computing” makes sense out of non text content. The firm said:
Autonomy Virage’s solution overcomes these challenges by enabling businesses to automatically understand the value of all digital assets created both inside and outside an organization, and dynamically deliver the right content to the right customer, every time. At the core of Autonomy’s Virage MediaBin platform is the Intelligent Data Operating Layer (IDOL) which allows businesses to automate the processing of all rich media assets. IDOL forms a conceptual understanding that allows marketers to automatically tag and classify any rich media asset, regardless of format or language. Virage MediaBin applies this intelligence to deliver advanced analytics, automatic categorization, summarization, concept clouds, dynamic content associations, content hyperlinking and automation of business processes and workflow.
In addition, the new release:
provides enhanced innovations to “watch and listen” to video. The product automatically converts video to text and time synchronizes with a preview of the content. Video assets can be quickly and easily found with pinpoint accuracy to the exact location within a video where a word or phrase is spoken. This is dynamically associated with other critical digital assets.
You can get more information about MediaBin at www.autonomy.com/dam.
Stephen E Arnold, April 14, 2010
Unsponsored post.
If Books Become Apps, What about Regular Reading?
April 13, 2010
My view is that the era of text is drawing to a close. Words won’t go away, but the future is video and interactivity. Even InDesign CS5 allows moving stuff to be inserted into text. Text is becoming a sidebar. The real action is jiggly wiggly content. You can get a glimpse of the future in “The Amazing Media Habits Of 8-18 Year Olds.” The article is based on a study funded by the Kaiser Family Foundation and you can view the PowerPoint highlights on the Business Insider Web site. For me, the most interesting item in the Kaiser study is summarized in the screenshot below:
If books become multimedia, then book consumption may go up. The reason is that books will be more like games or TV, two popular pastimes for the sub 18 year old set. The problem facing any traditional publisher is shown in the slide below:
Looks like the sub 18 crowd is moving beyond text. Apple may be better positioned that either Amazon or Google in this sector. Which horse will win the rich media derby? A favorite or a contender off the radar at the moment?
Stephen E Arnold, April 13, 2010
Google Strengthens Visual Search Team with Plink
April 12, 2010
The fastest way to get technology and staff is to buy a company. Google, according to AFP, grabbed UK based Plink, a search system for “artwork” and pictures. You can read “Google Buys Visual Search Start-Up Plink” and get some basics. (Yahoo News links often go dead, so you may have to do some hunting for the story.) I am at an undisclosed location east of Italy and I don’t have my full Overflight service available. Some basics:
- The url for the company is / was http://www.plinkart.com
- The company offers a mobile phone app. Take a snap and the system identifies the object
- You can see the company’s news release at http://www.plinkart.com/blog/?p=77
The company will keep its mobile app, but:
we won’t be updating the app and will instead focus our development efforts on Google Goggles, so you’ll see new functionality appearing there in the future.
Google has a clutch of patent documents and technical papers that address visual search, image recognition, and video segmenting. Google is moving beyond text.
Stephen E Arnold, April 12, 2010
A freebie.
The Importance of YouTube.com
April 6, 2010
Seeking Alpha’s “YouTube Much More Important Than Gmail for Google” reminded me that I don’t place sufficient emphasis on YouTube.com, Google’s controversial rich media service. I know that Google has a number of initiatives in rich media, including its recent acquisition of Episodic. The main point of the Seeking Alpha story struck me as:
For YouTube, we estimate that revenue per 1,000 page views increased from about 40 cents in 2005 to about $2.40 in 2009. We expect YouTube’s revenue per 1,000 page views to increase to nearly $10 by the end of the Trefis forecast period.
Google will have to continue its efforts to take advantage of the YouTube.com revenue opportunity. If text ads begin to deteriorate in the face of advertisers jumping to Facebook.com, Google may have to hurry its efforts to pump up YouTube.com’s financial performance.
The Seeking Alpha charts present some tasty charts, but I wonder, “Is time running out for Google in rich media?” The problem is not the iPad, which may or may not be a factor for Google. The challenge is the many different issues that Google now faces. These range from the interesting Viacom legal matter to Google’s role as a champion of uncensored Internet results. Toss in the continued interest in Facebook and the softness in certain economic data. With many complexities interacting, the uncertainty for Google may be at its highest point in the firm’s 11 year history.
YouTube.com is important, and rich media will be the making or breaking of some companies in the online space. Google wants to be on the upside of this shift from text to video, from keyword search to social information acquisition.
Stephen E Arnold, April 5, 2010
This post talks about law and international affairs. Which entity has oversight of uncompensated write ups? I will report non payment to the manager of the Northern Regional Research Lab, south of Chicago.
Microsoft Sees Google as No Threat
April 4, 2010
I am not sure if the story “Microsoft Won’t Make Office for IPad, Says Google No Threat” is an April Fools’ joke or not. Google has a real threat in Facebook. And, April Fool or not, Microsoft has a real threat in Google. Companies that once looked unassailable are increasingly vulnerable, and that’s no joke. There is a big push for finding simple explanations for the complexities of information, organizational methods, and human motives. The reality is that if you look at a map of Venice in the 16th century, the trickiness of the street layout is evident. If you visit modern day Venice, you have the old passageways plus the wackiness of high speed boats taking you places that you have a tough time locating in your mental map. As hard as it is to believe, the complexity of the physical layout of Venice is greater today than it was in the 16th century. The old Venice looks positively streamlined compared to the modern day set up.
Source: http://historic-cities.huji.ac.il/italy/venice/maps/pinargenti_1573_venice_b.jpg
Just look at what the modern maps omit to make some type of orientation practical for the first time visitor.
And Venice is 159 square miles, which is about half the size of Chicago.
If we assume that the Bloomberg article is true, then Microsoft is engaging in the very popular sport of simplification. According to the news story, a Microsoft executive, Stephen Elop, allegedly said:
“We haven’t heard anything about Google making inroads against Office, because they’re not,” Elop said today in an interview. Office includes word-processing, spreadsheet and other business-productivity programs.
The article then points out that Microsoft will not make a version of its popular, feature rich program, Office, for the Apple iPad.
My take is that if the story is true, Microsoft is simplifying the action of two competitors who themselves are working quite hard to avoid marginalization. I know that the idea of Apple and Google finding themselves on the periphery of today’s booming markets is silly, but I think that the fragility makes these co9mpanies vulnerable.
Google has not mounted a response to Facebook and the shift from search to just asking members of a community a question. The other aspects of the social media boom that Facebook to some degree represents is foreign to the math club.
Apple has its own problems looming. First, the company has to find a way to maintain its proprietary ecosystem in the expanding open movement. At some point, the Apple value may run into mass market realities for commoditization. Commodities require low cost, and if a closed system costs more, the commoditizers may start slow but gain momentum. Elite is good, but it may not scale. And Apple may find that it triggers as much fear and loathing as Google in the rich content game. Apple has the upper hand right now, but a revolt is certainly possible. If Apple experiences a change in leadership, some real dislocation can take place and fast.
In the midst of this, Microsoft is keeping its message simple. Google is trying to put cats back in the bag, but I don’t think the steamed red herring with vegetables will do the job. Apple is the master of PR but a backlash is something about which one might want to think.
To sum up, simplify if you want. But the complexities within, among, and across these companies is a characteristic of human interaction. Human behavior has been simplified to self interest but, like the passageways in Venice, it is easy to get lost. Simple, right?
Stephen E Arnold, April 4, 2010
Storage Report Predictions
April 3, 2010
Lots of “expects” and “estimates” in a report published by Coughlin Associates.I scanned a summary of some of the findings reported in “2010 Digital Storage for Media and Entertainment Report Released”. You can fill out a somewhat tedious form and get a copy of the full document by pointing your browser here. I found these three “factoids” interesting:
- Total revenue for storage media will increase about 4X from 2009 through 2015 ($415 M to $1,642 M)
- About 93% of the total storage capacity will be used for content archiving and preservation in 2009. (Good news for search I think.)
- Digital storage requirements are exploding due to use of higher resolution and stereoscopic content in the media and entertainment industry. (Maybe, maybe not).
Stephen E Arnold, April 3, 2010
No one paid me to write this.
Google Beyond Text Video Available
March 26, 2010
Stephen E Arnold’s fourth Google monograph Google Beyond Text will be available in May 2010. ArnoldIT.com released a three minute video highlighting the themes of the groundbreaking study. Google Beyond Text focuses on firm’s technical innovations in the field of rich media. One of the findings from the research conducted by the ArnoldIT.com team is that Google may have the systems and methods in place to allow motion picture and television production companies to reinvent themselves. You can access the video on YouTube.com. A free, sample chapter draft from the forthcoming study is available via Seed2020. The first three monographs are available from Infonortics Ltd. in Tetbury, Glos. The fourth study will be published by the Intellas Press.
Stuart Schram IV, March 26, 2010
This is a promotional message paid for by Stephen E Arnold.
Google Beyond Text Sample Chapter
March 23, 2010
Stephen E Arnold’s new monograph about Google technology is just about complete. The study will be available in May 2010 from Intellas Press. The monograph focuses on Google non-text technical disclosures. Like Mr. Arnold’s previous three Google studies, the focus is on Google’s technical capabilities. Mr. Arnold’s 2009 study, Google: The Digital Gutenberg examined the company’s infrastructure as a digital River Rouge; that is, information goes in one end and complete content objects come out the other. Google Beyond Text tackles rich media, including images, audio, and video. The research has consumed more than one year and relies upon Google’s open source disclosures in technical papers, financial filings, and patent documents. You can get a sense of the type of information in this important new study by requesting a sample chapter from the monograph. The chapter that is available in draft form and without charge discusses the gap in Google’s non-text capabilities. Among the companies discussed are Catch Media, La La Media, and DoubleTwist. The book is intended from technically inclined individuals, investors, Google competitors, and those interested in a book that skips the “Sergey and Larry eat pizza” approach to Google’s technical systems and methods. You can request the sample chapter by navigating to http://www.theseed2020.com/gbt/. A PDF will be sent to you without charge. The hope is that you will either provide some constructive criticism and maybe order a copy of the monograph when it becomes available.
Ken Toth, March 23, 2010
This was a sponsored post supported by ArnoldIT.com. This is a marketing article.
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