How Americans Spend Their Time
December 18, 2010
Slurp, slurp. ”
That is the sound of “real journalists” gobbling the latest Forrester confection. I read “Forrester: Americans Spend Equal time Online and Watching TV.” Great headline, but I am not sure I know what “time” means. Also, the pairing of online and watching TV is ambiguous.
I get the point. Web activity is now as popular as watching the boob tube. Great.
But what happens to the data if a person watches TV when online?
I think I know what the mid tier outfit is trying to accomplish: make sales for its consulting business. The “data” are the bait for the canny Forrester fishermen and fisherwomen.
Here’s the main idea. People are spending as much time watching TV as the people are fiddling with their computers, which I think means devices that are computers just hauled around or tucked in a pocket.
Several observations:
- What’s the sample size? What was the sampling method? Is the n=xxx such a big deal? Omit that from the stats homework in the lousy liberal college I attended as a dull normal and the prof awarded an automatic F. Guess that doesn’t apply to mid tier consulting outfits.
- Online usage is growing. Okay, great to know since devices have been proliferating for several years. It makes sense that if there are more devices, usage would go up.
- TV sucks. Well, the write up did not document that, but the TV crowd, like the newspaper and other publishers, are in a tizzy as people use their laptops and gizmos like the Apple TV to get the programming each user wants. With control, TV sucks less. If you want only shows you love, TV does not suck at all.
- The features used by those online mirror the same Alexis-Charles-Henri Clérel de Tocqueville “average” that his travels in America documented. The only difference is that the stuff that pleases is pretty well know; for example, email, buying stuff, and socializing.
What’s not in the write up may be in the “real” study available from Forrester? Facebook. My hunch is that the demographics of a statistically-valid sample rigorously surveyed would reveal some nuances not in the article and maybe in the “real” study. Here’s a list:
- In each demographic, which activity is growing more rapidly, which is decreasing more rapidly?
- In the demographic with the heaviest TV usage, what’s the group doing? Using the TV as background, a way to feel loved, or as a primary activity?
- In the demographic with the heaviest online usage, what amount of time is spent on Facebook versus any other social system.
- Across the sample, what is the lean back versus lean forward behavior? How many in each sector use one mode as a primary and the other mode as a secondary?
- Across demographics, who does the most buying? Under what conditions?
Our work in this field suggests some surprising behavioral shifts. The multitasking characteristic is covered in a Forrester blog post. Presumably that activity is documented rigorously in the “real” report.
But what about that sample? What confidence should I have in the oh-so-precise data? Without data about the mechanics of the study, not much I fear.
Stephen E Arnold, December 18, 2010
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Quote to Note: Netflix Is Albania
December 16, 2010
I saw this quote in my hard copy of the dear old New York Times. The reference page is Section B1 (National Edition) Business page. The article with the alleged statement is “time Warner Views Netflix As a Fading Star.”
Here’s the alleged quote, attributed to Jeffrey Bewkes, Time Warner executive:
“It’s a little bit like, is the Albanian army going to take over the world. I don’t think so.”
The mystery pronoun “it” refers to the success of Netflix, the streaming video service that recently put its goodies in the hands of Amazon’s cloud system. Yep, that’s the company whose cloud service went offline recently. The “take over the world” is ambiguous, but I interpreted the phrase to mean that Netflix (Albania) would not be able to control the real media industry.
I didn’t see a reference to Apple in the story whose online system embodied in hardware, software, and iTunes has had a reasonably significant impact on the music sector.
I really admire the metaphor. Netflix as Albania. That’s one place where I found the immigration procedure quite interesting. Lovely yard care in the smaller cities’ residential neighborhood as well.
Stephen E Arnold, December 16, 2010
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Arnold Guest on Land SDS Podcast
December 9, 2010
Stephen E Arnold, ArnoldIT.com, was a guest on Dr. Tyra Oldham’s Land SDS podcast. The interview covered the contribution of computer technology to “green” initiatives. In the interview, Arnold said, “Significant gains in energy efficiency can be obtained using real time micro adjustments. Computers and smart software can dynamically adjust systems to reduce energy costs and minimize ecological impact.”
You can listen to the complete interview at www.landsds.com
Ken Toth, December 9, 2010
Microsoft Media Madness: Bing Movie Search
December 4, 2010
Will Microsoft ace the Google in movie search? After watching a teen fiddle with the a Google TV in a big box store, that’s a tough question. Meh.
“Bing updates its movie search” on Cnet touts the Microsoft search engine’s revamped cinema page with its larger list of reviews and clips and driving distance to local theaters. With more prominent graphics, it’s much prettier than Google, I’ll give it that. However, in my city I get a much larger list of local theaters, right on the movie’s main page on Google, so I don’t have to click again. I know where the cinemas are in my town, and I usually have some idea of what I want to see, so for me the Google search works a little better.
Cnet’s argument is:
Bing’s revamped movie page is now similar to the one offered by Google.Searching for a movie at Google also shows you local show times, links to reviews, and a video of the movie’s trailer all in one spot. But Bing offers a greater variety and number of reviews and a wider selection of trailers and other clips.
Not really that exciting, in my book., but Bing does have that little extra oomph with the eye candy, which I’m sure many will find appealing.
Alice Wasielewski, December 4, 2010, 2010
Cisco Tandberg Open Source Dust Up
December 4, 2010
Cisco has been pushing, quite aggressively, into different markets. The company’s financial outlook needs a helper app. I listened to the Cisco open source talk about Lucene/Solr in October 2010 at the Lucene Revolution Conference. The information was interesting and did not equip me to determine if “Tandberg Illustrates Stupidity of Software Patent Policy” is accurate or not. The write up asserts that Tandberg, a unit of Cisco, has “invented” a video processing method. An open source developers suggests that Tandberg may have embraced open source with more familiarity than some expect.
I am really not concerned with this matter. What interests me is the possibility that other alleged open source friendly outfits will try to patent open source innovations. I keep having dreams about open source becoming the walled garden of tomorrow.
Worth watching in my opinion because Cisco Tandberg may be quite clever with the help of patent regulations of course.
Stephen E Arnold, December 4, 2010
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Google, France, and a Sacred Link
December 2, 2010
Short honk: Lots of chatter about Google just deciding to pay for content deals. The original approach seems to have been less than optimal. The new method is to write checks. Most folks are chasing the Miramax thread. I found “Google Signs France Artists Deal to Cool Tensions From Copyright Battles” more indicative of the Google Plan B. Will it work? I was tracking Google’s chit chat with Catch Media, a plays-anywhere outfit with some good-as-gold rich media content deals in place. According to the “we write checks in France” insight, I found this passage from the Bloomberg story interesting:
Google, the owner of the world’s largest search engine, is trying to build stronger relationships with regulators and copyright holders in France, where it has attracted scrutiny over its mapping, book-scanning, and advertising systems. Google Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt this year pledged to build a “European cultural institute” and a research and development center in Paris after meeting with President Nicolas Sarkozy. While the YouTube deal won’t produce large amounts of cash for artists in the short term, it re-establishes “the sacred link between the fortune of the work and the fortune of the author,” Laurent Heynemann, president of the 50,000 member SACD group, said at a Paris press conference. “The Internet is not a jungle, and an economic model is possible.
Heads of state: the country of France and the country of Google. And, the best phrase, “sacred link”. I like that elevation to even higher powers than mere heads of state and heads of publicly traded US companies. I keep asking, “How’s that Google TV working out for you?” No one in my office has much of an answer.
Stephen E Arnold, December 2, 2010
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Microsoft and the Game Angle on Search
November 30, 2010
I recall that the RAND outfit used game playing by humans as a way to inform software. Instead of artificial intelligence, the system sucked down what humans did and used that. I think I learned about this method when I was a freshman at the loser university I attended.
Proving that history tends to repeat itself, Microsoft is working on a new way to search for images. “Microsoft’s ImageFlow Turns Picture Search Into a 3-D Game” details some features of this new product.
ImageFlow is a game-centric search that places users in a star field of search results. Using their mouse or keyboard, users navigate further into the star field to drill down in the results. Traveling up or down in the star field shows results along the color-to-black-and-white scale. Traveling left to right brings results for related search queries; for example showing images of Janet Jackson with the results for the original search query of Michael Jackson.
This idea, if we understand the source article, has some warts.
Who’s to say that when I search for pictures of Michael Jackson, the next thing I want to search for are images of Janet?
Google is already making strides in improving image searches, and Microsoft is itching to catch up. Possibly their next effort will be a reimagining of something else that we’ve already seen.
Stephen E Arnold and Laura Amos, November 30, 2010
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The Price of Catch Up in La La Land
November 29, 2010
The Math Club may be ready to break open its piggybank. The cash may be what’s needed to get into the Los Angeles “business”. The lawyers can do fancy math. Not Google style math, of course. The Hollywood math can make other moguls cry and drive tissue paper personalities to their shrinks in droves.
Navigate to “Hollywood’s Big Hope: Google Shows Up With Suitcase Full of Money. It Could Happen!” Here’s the passage that caught my attention:
You can see why Hollywood would be pushing for a deep-pocketed suitor to show up. And you can see why Google has been resistant to that idea: If it starts writing checks to Hollywood, then every content player, everywhere, will expect the same thing. And Google has always insisted that it’s not in the content business, period.
Money works in La La Land. The problem is that as America’s youth become increasingly challenged when asked to read third grade level content, lean back entertainment is the new calculus. So what happens when Hollywood lawyers meet the Math Club? Access is going to cost a lot. Oh, the Hollywood way involves servitude, obeisance, and often a 20 minute work out on the casting couch.
The Google may have some challenges ahead. After letting some interesting acquisitions slip away, time may be running out. Amazon is in the movie business. Apple’s big Jobs is the new Walt Disney. And Netflix? Well, it may be easier for Netflix to do Google stuff than for Google to do Netflix type deals.
Search is yesterday. Oh, that song is on iTunes now.
Stephen E Arnold, November 29, 2010
Google TV: Are Pundits Over Reacting?
November 28, 2010
I fiddled with a Google TV. Worked okay. Not for my 89 year old father, but for the most part, Google has implemented some of the ideas expressed in the firm’s voluminous patent applications issued since 2005. True, the commercial content is not there, but you can access YouTube, which is according to some attention deficit disorder researchers is the largest repository of video content available.
I read “Google TV Already In Trouble? Sony Offering 25% Off Blu-ray Google TV Units” and noted this passage:
Price cuts never speak well to a product’s success and so Google TV may be in some serious trouble here. I already stated along with most every other reviewer that the feature set is half-baked, the units are overpriced, and now this lower price seems to say that consumers aren’t biting even though there’s a commercial for the Sony units nearly every 20 minutes during prime time TV. Sigh. If Google can’t disrupt big media, who can?
My view is that Google is the Microsoft for the 21st century. I expect the service to be much better around Version 3 or so. Google may be taking out its check book because nothing produces content like money for media moguls. This group of managers may think Python is a snake, not a programming language. But money is money, even to media moguls. And the over reacting? Nah, just trying to cope with Google Instant and the new normal in objective search results.
Patience, grasshopper. Patience.
Stephen E Arnold, November 28, 2010
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New York Times States Obvious about Google TV
November 24, 2010
Short honk: I am a subscriber to the gray lady in print too. Over the years, I have chuckled at the pontifications. I even argued with a former famous New York Times writer—former as in no longer there—about the vapidity of the write ups about Google. I noted a rubber spatula daub in “How To Watch The Daily Show on Google TV.”
That [Viacom’s and other TV outfits’ blocking of Google TV] represents an interesting dilemma for Google TV: The platform needs a critical mass of users to have an impact on viewership numbers for sites like Comedycentral.com — but it may have a hard time getting to that level if most of the TV content available on the web today is blocked.
Quite an insight. Be still my heart.
Stephen E Arnold, November 24, 2010
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