What If Google Books Goes Away?
September 21, 2009
I had a talk with one of my partners this morning. The article in TechRadar “Google Books Smacked Down by US Government” was the trigger. This Web log post captures the consequences portion of our discussion. I am not sure Google, authors, or any other pundit embroiled in the dust up over Google Books will agree with these points. That’s okay. I am capturing highlights for myself. If you have forgotten this function of this Beyond Search Web log, quit reading or look at the editorial policy for this marketing / diary publication.
Let’s jump into the discussion in media res. The battle is joined and at this time, Google is on the defensive. Keep in mind that Google has been plugging away at this Google Book “project” since 2000 or 2001 when it made a key hire from Caere (now folded into Nuance) to add a turbo charge to the Books project.
Who is David? Who is Goliath?
With nine years of effort under its belt, Google will get a broken snout if the Google Books project stops. Now, let’s assume that the courts stop Google. What might happen?
First, Google could just keep on scanning. Google lawyers will do lawyer-type things. The wheels of justice will grind forward. With enough money and lawyers, Google can buy time. Let’s face it. Publishers could run out of enthusiasm or cash. If the Google keeps on scanning, discourse will deteriorate, but the acquisition of data for the Google knowledge base and for Google repurposing keeps on keeping on.
Second, Google might agree. Shut up shop and go directly to authors with an offer to buy rights to their work. I have four or five publishers right now. I would toss them overboard for a chance to publish my next monograph on the Google system, let Google monetize it any way it sees fit, and give me a percentage of the revenue. Heck, if I get a couple of hundred a month from the Google I am ahead of the game. Note this: none of my publishers are selling very many expensive studies right now. The for fee columns I write produce a pittance as well. One publisher cut my pay by 30 percent as part of a shift to a four day week and a trimmed publishing schedule. Heck, I love my publishers, but I love an outfit that pays money more. I think quite a few authors would find publishing on the Google Press most interesting. If that happens, the Google Books project has a gap, but going forward, Google has the info and the publishers and non participating authors have a different type of competitive problem.
Third, Google cuts a new deal, adjusts the terms, and keeps on scanning books. Google’s management throws enough bird feed to the flock. Google is secure in its knowledge that the future belongs to a trans-national digital information platform stuffed with digital information of various types. No publisher or group of publishers has a comparable platform. Microsoft and Yahoo were in the book game and bailed out. Perhaps their platforms can at some point in the future match Google’s. But my hunch is that the critics of Google’s book project are not looking at the value of the information to Google’s knowledge base, Google’s repurposing technologies, and Google’s next generation dataspace applications. Because these are dark corners, the bright light of protest is illuminating the dust and mice only.
One theme runs through these three possibilities. Google gets information. In this game, the publishers have lost but have not recognized it. Without a better idea and without an alternative to the irreversible erosion of libraries, Google is not the miserable little worm that so many want the company to be. Just my opinion.
Stephen Arnold, September 21, 2009
Google Gives News Corp. an F in Financial Reasoning
September 19, 2009
I have been busy making videos. As a result, I have been taking direction from a film maker and hassling the goslings for a punchy script. In a few weeks, the videos will be available without charge, and you will see me, the goslings, and a surprise nerd floundering as we try to make complicated stuff simple.
As a consequence, I have fallen behind in my reading about the dust up between Google and the publishing industry. I did read with considerable interest a write up in Maximum PC. I used to buy the magazine, but my recollection is that the last issue cost $6, maybe $7. When I worked at Ziff, I used to get PC magazines free. Well, those days are gone, so the publishers have to find new ways to earn money to pay for their Yacht Club memberships. The New York City outpost is across from the Royalton Hotel in what has become an upscale street in the last decade.
Image source: http://riverdaughter.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/report-card-f-011409l.jpg
“Google CEO Spurns Murdoch’s Paid Content Plan” grabbed my attention. I like the word “spurn”, which means to me to reject with disdain; scorn; to treat with contempt; despise; and to kick or trample with the foot. I used the word with the “foot” sense in Ms. Sperling’s English class and earned her disdain. (She did not know the “trample with the foot” meaning, and I did. Snort.) Maximum PC’s story wrote:
He believes that it is highly unlikely that internet users will be willing to pay for accessing general news items on the internet given the nimiety of free news sources on the internet. “In general these models have not worked for general public consumption because there are enough free sources that the marginal value of paying is not justified based on the incremental value of quantity. So my guess is for niche and specialist markets … it will be possible to do it but I think it is unlikely that you will be able to do it for all news,”
If true, Google seems to perceive that News Corp.’s financial wizards have earned an F in financial analysis from Google’s Singularity University. Here in Harrod’s Creek, my neighbor would just say, “Ain’t got no clue.” I like the “spurn” word, however. Both Google and my neighbor would agree on one point, I believe. An F in financial analysis. Does News Corp. care? Does Google care? Nope, two ships passing in the night. One is the Titanic. One is a nuclear powered destroyer. Which is which?
Stephen Arnold, September 19, 2009
Google Publishing Paperbacks
September 17, 2009
I read on the Digital Trends Web site a story titled “Google to Reincarnate Digital Books as Paperbacks.” You should read the full story. It provides the spin that most Google watchers expect. The idea is that Google will hook up with an on demand publishing outfit and generate softbounds (paperbacks) of public domain titles.
Sounds good. Seems to be semi-useful.
Based on my research for Google: The Digital Gutenberg, Google is taking another tentative step toward its Hollywood studio approach to information. You can get more detail in my new monograph, available as part of my Google trilogy or as a stand alone report.
I find it interesting that few in the publishing industry understand that Google can go directly to an author, cut a deal, publish, sell, and otherwise make use of * original * content. What will this do to the traditional publishing industry * if * – note the “if” – Google exercises this option? Disruption is too modest a term for the effect. I document the Google effect in my first Google study. Now the publishing industry can experience the thrill of its potential.
Stephen Arnold, September 17, 2009
Pragamatic Approach to the Free Business Model
September 15, 2009
Greg Sandoval conducted an interview with Mike Masnick, founder of Techdirt. Mr. Masnick, like the addled goose, finds some of the antics of traditional publishing outfits amusing. The interview, in my opinion, is a must read. I want to quote one segment from the interview, which appeared on Cnet on September 13, 2009. The question Mr. Masnick answered was, “Are you profitable?” Mr. Masnick, according to the write up, replied:
We are profitable. The project itself has definitely been profitable. We didn’t want to set too high of expectations ourselves, we kind of wanted to see where it was going. Some of our basic assumptions we’ve learned were wrong but in a good way. We sort of naturally expected that least expensive levels would be the top sellers. That hasn’t been true. To date, the top seller has been the package called the Approaching Infinity Package, which is a book based on a series of Techdirt posts about understanding the economics and business models. We took those posts and expanded on it a little more. People are buying that package, which also comes with a T-shirt. It is our best seller so far.
I found this comment quite suggestive. The Disney approach of having collateral like T shirts and packages like a weekend package at Disneyworld strikes me as a potentially useful model to explore.
Stephen Arnold, September 15, 2009
Google Gives Traditional Media a Triumph
September 15, 2009
The Roman triumph celebrated certain military leaders. Google has appropriated the method and is showering content creators with technology, not flowers. In my opinion, the approbation is a political move to get publishers to work with Google (what I call “surfing on Google”), instead of fighting Google. I scanned a number of write ups about Fast Flip, Google’s new reading service. I found the Channel Web story — “Google Fast Flip: A Quick Browse through the News” – clear and concise. Will it work? Google is just as late in the building bridges business as the publishers are in the understanding Google business.
My view is that micropayments, AdWords type of administrative controls for a publisher’s content, and this type of reader technology were needed years ago. Both sides in this content dust up have made errors. Neither Google management nor the leaders of the publishing industry are likely to be mistaken for Mother Theresa. One example warrants a comment. As the rose petals and olive branches were being tossed, Google introduced another data management function that is going to have significant implications for those in the data and statistics business. “Liberate Your Data!” Yep, but from whom? Publishing and other commercial organizations. Google is a tactical player. It is a good idea to know what the game is, however.
Stephen Arnold, September 14, 2009
Google Opens Up Its Digital Books
September 14, 2009
I read an interesting news item on a Web site with which I have no familiarity. The site is Khabrein.info. The story was “Google Opens Up Its 10 Million Books Archive for Booksellers.” I knew Google was doing some soft shoe in an attempt to win over a hostile crowd for its book scanning slam dancing over the last five years. I did not know what the Khabrein Web site reported:
Google said in a statement that it believes strongly in an open and competitive market for digital books. “We will let any book retailer sell access to these books. Google will host the digital books online, and retailers such as Amazon, Barnes & Noble or your local bookstore will be able to sell access to users on any Internet-connected device they choose…”
The story concluded with a strong statement: “Critics said that the proposal still left Google in near-complete control of the digital files.”
Stephen Arnold, September 14, 2009
ZDNet Education Writer Wants Google Get a Break for Books
September 14, 2009
Wow. I wonder if cheerleading and supporting Google is going to be the new black. “Give Google a Break!” argues:
This book scanning thing is getting completely out of hand. I want Google to make money. I want them to make lots of it because that means that all of the services I use for free will remain free. It also means that they will have the capital to keep moving forward with bringing millions of books into the digital (and public) domain and advance the technology that will help electronic texts go mainstream.
I heard a similar sentiment on a recent Adam Carolla podcast. Mr. Carolla pointed to the profit motive as the reason for progress by pharmaceutical companies. I think Mr. Carolla is an entertainer and television / movie star. Is the method of argument the same in show business and the ZDNet Education online publication the same? Just slightly congruent? Anyone have a view point? I am undecided on this matter, but I think this is a step toward what I called the Pogue Opportunity in my essay “The Pogue Problem, Maybe the Future Opportunity?”
Stephen Arnold, September 14, 2009
Australian Publisher in Bid to Get His Own Chapter in Bartlett’s Quotations
September 13, 2009
What outstanding phraseology. Amazing quotes. You can read a summary in “Publisher: Time to pay up, Google”. Let me give you two examples, but, please, buy a hard copy of the Daily Telegraph Australia. I cannot do justice to this wonderful material.
Quote 1 allegedly crafted by APN News & Media chief executive Brendan Hopkins:
“We don’t need to be reborn, we just need to be paid properly for what we do,” Mr Hopkins told the Pacific Area Newspaper Publishers’ Association (PANPA) conference.
And quote 2, same fellow:
To use an analogy, I see search engines as breaking into our homes, itemizing the contents, walking out and listing everything for everyone to see. And they get money out of that process,” he said.
Great word smithing. I should have remained in publishing. I need to perfect my analytical skills and my writing. Maybe I can nab an internship.
Stephen Arnold, September 13, 2009
Google Book Download
September 12, 2009
Short honk: I search Google Books every once in a while. I find most of the page image services clunky. When possible, I try to visit a library and check out the real McCoy. If you are not the book pawing kind, you may be interested in the Google Book Downloader. You can obtain the software by navigating to http://googlebookdownloader.codeplex.com/. Its features include:
Download any book from Google Books marked as ‘Full view’
Partially download any book from Google Books marked as ‘Limited preview’
Access to any book available only for US citizens (instructions)
Searching for hidden pages (not indexed by Google Books)
I have not downloaded the software so I can’t offer a goose honk or quack. Enjoy.
Stephen Arnold, September 12, 2009
Sony Is Looking for Revenue in Interesting Places
September 12, 2009
I don’t know if this story in Kotaku is accurate. I found it odd and somewhat disturbing. I don’t care much about Sony after buying one of their cameras that used a proprietary driver to create a mini CD. Never worked. Good bye, Sony. But Google has a bit of a crush on Sony, so I am using my Overflight service to watch the former Japanese superstar in the intramural leagues. What did I spy? “Adult Films Push For Presence on Gaming Consoles.” The most interesting comment in the write up was:
“Our point is pretty simple,” Hirsch [X rated content executive] told Kotaku. “As long as age verification is in place that (Sony) feels comfortable with we see no reason why adults shouldn’t be allowed to access adult movies on the Playstation 3.”
I do not want to think about the implications for books on Sony’s new line of eBook readers. I don’t know much about the PSP, but it sounds like something kids would use. I suppose desperation leads to a certain ingenuity.
Stephen Arnold, September 12, 2009
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