Microsoft and Two Rip Tides
May 4, 2009
Jason Hiner’s “The Two Trends That Are Conspiring against Microsoft” here is a so-so title for a pretty good analysis of the rip tides sucking at Microsoft’s revenue. The two points are browser-based applications which blur the distinction between the desktop and the cloud, and mobile devices, which make the traditional desktop computer a boat anchor. The essay is hard hitting, and I think it makes some excellent points.
Stephen Arnold, May 4, 2009
Big Screen Kindle: Back Pack Snap and Crack
May 4, 2009
I have been involved in electronic books for a number of years. The form factors pose several challenges:
First, there is the issue of screen contrast. Although contrast is improving, white on black is more like light gray on dark gray. Great for young eyes. Not so hot for those in their mid 60s.
Second, there is the issue of user interface. The early devices were clunky. Today’s devices are – well – still clunky. But on a long trip, would I tote a bag of dead tree books or a Kindle? I go for the Kindle One because I like the extra capacity the secure digital storage card affords. Still early days on form factors.
Third, durability. In the late 1990s, I interacted with a development shop with a flexible screen. Very interesting. But with repeated flexing, there was some image degradation. Today’s devices require careful handling. My early Sony reader got a screen crack just passing it around. Sony’s support was impossible, so I disassembled the gizmo, kept the screws, and tossed the device.
I am on my second or third Kindle. These devices are not sufficiently study to deal amicably with airport security checks. The “holder” a sort of faux book cover seems to eject the device when a TSA inspector takes a closer look. Am I the only person to travel with one of these devices? TSA is surprised routinely by my having a device which seems to have sharp edges.
As a result, I am curious about a large format Kindle. I agree with MG Siegler in TechCrunch. The article “The Big Screen Kindle Hail Mary to Newspapers Will Fall Incomplete” here. News papers may look at the Kindle as a way to save their business. I think most of the traditional publishing companies will have to pull a rabbit from a hat.
The most interesting comment in my opinion was MG Siegler’s observation about textbooks:
In fact, I’d argue that it’s the much less sexy textbook business that could be the real key to this big Kindle. Textbooks are an absolute rip-off in print form, with many costing over $100 a book. If Amazon was able to offer textbooks on this large Kindle at a discount the same way it offers a discount on regular books on the regular Kindle, that would be worth the price of admission for just about every college student in the country right there. And a Kindle textbook reader makes sense because it would make bookmarking, taking notes and syncing all of those things up to the cloud, a snap.
I think this is a valid point. With regard to student use, I think the durability will be the key. Textbook publishers are as fragile – maybe more fragile – than newspaper publishers. If a student snags a big Kindle with an expensive textbook, how long will the Kindle last in a back pack? My instinct is that the device will have to stand up to harsh treatment. Smash a couple a semester and the student may have to take out another student loan.
Stephen Arnold, May 4, 2009
Google: Thunder, Babies, and Controlled Chaos
May 4, 2009
Short honk: My Overflight system kicked out a link to an article called “Thinking about Thunder” here. The author is Googler Matt Cutts. As I read the article, Google does not want to spit out negative electronics to neutralize others’ positive electrons. Thus, Wolfram Alpha versus Google in the news neutralization dust up was an unhappy coincidence. You may not believe me, but I believe Mr. Cutts. Google’s controlled chaos is too uncontrolled and chaotic to make probable consistent neutralization of competitors’ search efforts. Just chance. Just chance the item appeared in a personal Web log. Just chance.
Stephen Arnold, May 3, 2009
Google News in Transition
May 4, 2009
There are some gossip swirls roiling the leaves around the goose pond this afternoon (April 30, 2009). I read in The Wrap here the headline and story “Eric Schmidt on Google’s New Plan for the News”. I scanned the article, and I learned that at a Hollywood party Eric Schmidt was the “most popular guy in the room”. Heady stuff for Sun Microsystems’ former chief technology officer. Dr. Schmidt was popular at Sun for his technical acumen. I am not sure if technical acumen or power is the catnip for the Hollywood glitterati.
The news, according to The Wrap, is that Mr. Schmidt is “aware of the newsprint meltdown.” Here is what The Wrap said:
But Google does have plans for a solution. In about six months, the company will roll out a system that will bring high-quality news content to users without them actively looking for it. Under this latest iteration of advanced search, users will be automatically served the kind of news that interests them just by calling up Google’s page. The latest algorithms apply ever more sophisticated filtering – based on search words, user choices, purchases, a whole host of cues – to determine what the reader is looking for without knowing they’re looking for it. And on this basis, Google believes it will be able to sell premium ads against premium content. The first two news organizations to get this treatment, Schmidt said, will be the New York Times and the Washington Post.
I find this quite interesting, if it is indeed true. My research suggested that the Google was going to allow partners to use the Google platform to generate revenue. You can see where I obtained this idea by reading US2008/0275763.
Maybe the GOOG will do several things simultaneous a method with which the company is quite familiar.
Stephen Arnold, May 1, 2009
Encarta: The Price Curve of Death
May 4, 2009
I found Randall Stross’s “Encyclopedic Knowledge, Then vs. Now” in the New York Times here interesting. The article provides a useful supplement to my comments about online pricing in my “Mysteries of Online” series here. What struck me as I read the essay was the need for what I call “the curve of death”. The idea is that researchers probe the “market”, determine a price range, and then over the life of the product adjust the prices to covert the idea into a gusher of cash. As Mr. Stross pointed out, Encarta was unable to make headway, first, against the $129 Compton’s Interactive Encyclopedia and, second, against the Wikipedia. The numbers he provided, when converted to a simple line chart, provide a textbook example of what I call the “curve of death”. In today’s online marketplace, one “can’t make up the investment on volume when the price is forced ever lower.” Here’s what the curve looked like when I toyed with Mr. Stross’s data:
Once the curve starts to nosedive, in this particular instance, Microsoft killed the product a quarter century after Encarta started through its lifecycle. What I concluded was that once a product fails to generate traction, further price cuts do not mean the product will become successful. I recall a lecture by an ivory tower type who explained economies of scale and the wisdom of cutting prices as the manufacturer moved “up the experience curve”. Didn’t seem to work for Encarta. My experience suggests that the ongoing cost of information products is a killer. Automation offers one way out of the box. Shifting production to volunteers may be another. The traditional approach and the traditional wisdom, in the case of Encarta, did not work even with the marketing muscle of Microsoft behind the product. Persistence is often an excellent characteristic. I wonder if the curve suggested an earlier exit from the Encarta business?
Stephen Arnold, May 3, 2009
Container Vessel Vertical Search
May 3, 2009
Short honk: MarketWatch here reported here that a free vertical search system for ocean going container vessels has been launched. The story “Linescape Launches a Free and Independent Ocean Container Schedule Search Engine” pointed to http://www.linescape.com. For me the most interesting comment in the description of this vertical search engine was:
Linescape has introduced several advanced features unique to its search engine, including an innovative “Route Planner” that presents users with a matrix of all the possible port combinations between two geographical areas and which carriers serve those routes. This very powerful and easy to use feature will simplify one of the most difficult tasks of a user — trying to choose the best possible origin and destination ports. A unique aspect of the website is the visibility of the number of transhipments in a journey, allowing a user to balance journey times with numbers of tranships to keep risks of delay to a minimum. Another advanced feature is the innovative “Multiple Lines” feature, whereby users are able to automatically build routes via transhipments, even between two unrelated shipping lines.
Linescape is a leading online provider of comprehensive ocean container shipping schedules for shippers and freight forwarders worldwide. Headquartered in Burlingame, California, Linescape was created in 2008 by a team of professionals who have spent many years in industries that require the shipping of goods to customers all over the world.
Merck Elsevier Confused about Information
May 3, 2009
At a Derby party yesterday, a number of still working journalists asked me about the “integrity” of a Web log. The idea was that working for a big publishing company conferred some seal of approval. There are Web log writers who purport to bring a standard of excellence to Web logs. My view is that any information regardless of publisher or medium has to be viewed with a “trust but verify” mind set. Sure. That requires work on the part of the reader, but in today’s world, trickery is not just easy, an indifferent reader makes discovery unlikely. At the party, I explained that the Web log you are reading is a marketing effort. I don’t charge. I have a policy of recycling information that is either old or not in my for fee work. I write columns for money and those get more of my attention than a Web log post commenting about a wacky explanation abut enterprise search by a business intelligence professional or a SharePoint certified professional.
What I lacked yesterday was a recent, concrete example of big companies getting cute with information. I now have a good example. I don’t know if it is true, and I don’t have an easy way to determine if Merck and Elsevier were confused or dabbling in disinformation. You can read the item and draw your own conclusion.
The story “Merck Makes Phony Peer-Review Journal” in the Bioethics.net Web log here reported:
The Scientist has reported that, yes, it’s true, Merck cooked up a phony, but real sounding, peer reviewed journal and published favorably looking data for its products in them. Merck paid Elsevier to publish such a tome, which neither appears in MEDLINE or has a Web site, according to The Scientist. What’s wrong with this is so obvious it doesn’t have to be argued for.
A big publishing company took money from a big drug company. Now what about the integrity of a Web log? My thought it that one cannot trust information from any source. Reader beware.
Stephen Arnold, May 5, 2009
Real Time Conversations: The Next Big Big Thing
May 3, 2009
Short honk: real time conversation is the next big thing. You will want to read Marshall Kirkpatrick’s “The Man Who Made Gmail Says Real Time Conversation Is What’s Next” here. The source is the person who coded up Gmail in one day and then knocked off AdSense. (My hunch is that he had help from other Googlers.) Now Paul Buchheit is a Xoogler, working at FriendFeed. For me, the most interesting comment in the article was:
The father of the best web email program on the planet believes that a real-time streaming interface for simplified aggregation of conversation and content from all around the web is going to join the handful of tools we use regularly, like email, IM and blogging.
After reading the article, I had three questions. First, why hasn’t Google been more aggressive in this market space? Maybe Mr. Buchheit was a voice unheard? Second, will services such as FriendFeed leapfrog Google the way Google hopped over Yahoo a decade ago? Finally, maybe Google knows something about the fragility of real time conversation systems that elude lesser minds?
Stephen Arnold, May 3, 2009
LexisNexis, Its Data and Fraud
May 3, 2009
Robert McMillan’s “LexisNexis Says Its Data Was Used by Fraudsters” here caught my attention. The story reported that “LexisNexis acknowledged Friday [May 1, 2009] that criminals used its information retrieval service for more tan three years to gather data that was used to commit credit card fraud.” Mr. McMillan added that “LexisNexis has tightened up the way it verifies customers.” The article noted that LexisNexis “was involved in other data breaches in 2005 and 2006.” Interesting. So 2005, 2006, 2009. Perhaps the third time will be the charm?
Stephen Arnold, May 2, 2009
Unusual Customers for Microsoft Hotmail
May 3, 2009
Short honk: The Washington Post reported an interesting use and even more intriguing users found Hotmail email reliable and reasonably secure. You must read “Al-Qaida Used Hotmail, Simple Codes in Planning” by Pamela Hess here. The notion of monitoring email appeals to me, and it is clear that a lack of monitoring seems to have come to light. It is also possible that monitoring was in place and did not work.
Ms. Hess wrote:
Al-Marri sent e-mails to Khalid Sheik Mohammed’s hotmail account _ HOR70@hotmail.com _ addressed to “Muk” and signed “Abdo.” The details of that code were included in an address book found in an al-Qaida safehouse in Pakistan.
Ms. Hess reported that the Hotmail users tried to get Yahoo to work but were not able to achieve the desired function:
Al-Marri initially tried to use a Yahoo e-mail account to contact Mohammed, but it failed to go through. So he switched to Hotmail as well. When al-Marri arrived in the United States, he created five new e-mail accounts to communicate with Mohammed, using the 10-code to send him his cell phone number in Peoria.
The Post included a photo of one of the individuals who used Hotmail for “secret” messages. Interesting. I am thinking about what Ms. Hess reported. The idea that Microsoft worked is fascinating as is the issue with Yahoo Mail.
Stephen Arnold, May 2, 2009
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