AI Will Not Have a Negative Impact on Jobs. Knock Off the Negativity Now
September 2, 2025
No AI. Just a dinobaby working the old-fashioned way.
The word from Goldman Sachs is parental and well it should be. After all, Goldman Sachs is the big dog. PC Week’s story “Goldman Sachs: AI’s Job Hit Will Be Brief as Productivity Rises” makes this crystal clear or almost. In an era of PR and smart software, I am never sure who is creating what.
The write up says:
AI will cause significant, but ultimately temporary, disruption. The headline figure from the report is that widespread adoption of AI could displace 6-7% of the US workforce. While that number sounds alarming, the firm’s economists, Joseph Briggs and Sarah Dong, argue against the narrative of a permanent “jobpocalypse.” They remain “skeptical that AI will lead to large employment reductions over the next decade.”
Knock of the complaining already. College graduates with zero job offers. Just do the van life thing for a decade or become an influencer.
The write up explains history just like the good old days:
“Predictions that technology will reduce the need for human labor have a long history but a poor track record,” they write. The report highlights a stunning fact: Approximately 60% of US workers today are employed in occupations that didn’t even exist in 1940. This suggests that over 85% of all employment growth in the last 80 years has been fueled by the creation of new jobs driven by new technologies. From the steam engine to the internet, innovation has consistently eliminated some roles while creating entirely new industries and professions.
Technology and brilliant management like that at Goldman Sachs makes the economy hum along. And the write up proves it, and I quote:
Goldman Sachs expects AI to follow this pattern.
For those TikTok- and YouTube-type videos revealing that jobs are hard to obtain or the fathers whining about sending 200 job applications each month for six months, knock it off. The sun will come up tomorrow. The financial engines will churn and charge a service fee, of course. The flowers will bloom because that baloney about global warming is dead wrong. The birds will sing (well, maybe not in Manhattan) but elsewhere because windmills creating power are going to be shut down so the birds won’t be decapitated any more.
Everything is great. Goldman Sachs says this. In Goldman we trust or is it Goldman wants your trust… fund that is.
Stephen E Arnold, September 2, 2025
Swinging for the Data Centers: You May Strike Out, Casey
September 2, 2025
Home to a sparse population of humans, the Cowboy State is about to generate an immense amount of electricity. Tech Radar Pro reports, “A Massive Wyoming Data Center Will Soon Use 5x More Power than the State’s Human Occupants—But No One Knows Who Is Using It.” Really? We think we can guess. The Cheyenne facility is to be powered by a bespoke combination of natural gas and renewables. Writer Efosa Udinmwen writes:
“The proposed facility, a collaboration between energy company Tallgrass and data center developer Crusoe, is expected to start at 1.8 gigawatts and could scale to an immense 10 gigawatts. For context, this is over five times more electricity than what all households in Wyoming currently use.”
Who could need so much juice? Could it be OpenAI? So far, Crusoe neither confirms nor denies that suspicion. The write-up, however, notes Crusoe worked with OpenAI to build the world’s “largest data center” in Texas as part of the OpenAI-led “Stargate” initiative. (Yes, named for the portals in the 1994 movie and subsequent TV show. So clever.) Udinmwen observes:
“At the core of such AI-focused data centers lies the demand for extremely high-performance hardware. Industry experts expect it to house the fastest CPUs available, possibly in dense, rack-mounted workstation configurations optimized for deep learning and model training. These systems are power-hungry by design, with each server node capable of handling massive workloads that demand sustained cooling and uninterrupted energy. Wyoming state officials have embraced the project as a boost to local industries, particularly natural gas; however, some experts warn of broader implications. Even with a self-sufficient power model, a data center of this scale alters regional power dynamics. There are concerns that residents of Wyoming and its environs could face higher utility costs, particularly if local supply chains or pricing models are indirectly affected. Also, Wyoming’s identity as a major energy exporter could be tested if more such facilities emerge.”
The financial blind spot is explained in Futurism’s article “There’s a Stunning Financial Problem With AI Data Centers.” The main idea is that today’s investment will require future spending for upgrades, power, water, and communications. The result is that most of these “home run” swings will result in lousy batting averages and maybe become a hot dog vendor at the ball park adjacent the humming, hot structures.
Cynthia Murrell, September 2, 2025
Picking on the Zuck: Now It Is the AI Vision
September 1, 2025
No AI. Just a dinobaby working the old-fashioned way.
Hey, the fellow just wanted to meet girls on campus. Now his life work has become a negative. Let’s cut some slack for the Zuck. He is a thinking, caring family man. Imagine my shock when I read “Mark Zuckerberg’s Unbelievably Bleak AI Vision: We Were Promised Flying Cars. We Got Instagram Brain Rot.”
A person choosing to use a product the Zuck just bought conflates brain rot with a mass affliction. That’s outstanding reasoning.
The write up says:
In an Instagram video (of course) posted last week, Zuck explains that Meta’s goal is to develop “personal superintelligence for everyone,” accessed through devices like “glasses that can see what we see, hear what we hear, and interact with us throughout the day.” “A lot has been written about the scientific and economic advances that AI can bring,” he noted. “And I’m really optimistic about this.” But his vision is “different from others in the industry who want to direct AI at automating all of the valuable work”: “I think an even more meaningful impact in our lives is going to come from everyone having a personal superintelligence that helps you achieve your goals, create what you want to see in the world, be a better friend, and grow to become the person that you aspire to be.”
A person wearing the Zuck glasses will not be a “glasshole.” That individual will be a better human. Imagine taking the Zuck qualities and amplifying them like a high school sound system on the fritz. That’s what smart software will do.
The write up I saw is dated August 6, 2025, and it is hopelessly out of date. the Zuck has reorganized his firm’s smart software unit. He has frozen hiring except for a few quick strikes at competitors. And he is bringing more order to a quite well organized, efficiently run enterprise.
The big question is, “How can a write up dated August 6, 2025, become so mismatched with what the Zuck is currently doing? I don’t think I can rely on a write up with an assertion like this one:
I’ve seen the best digital minds of my generation wasted on Reels.
I have never seen a Reels, but it is obvious I am in the minority. That means that I am ill-equipped to understand this:
the AI systems his team is building are not meant to automate work but to provide a Meta-governed layer between individual human beings and the world outside of them.
This sounds great.
I would like to share three thoughts I had whilst reading this essay:
- Ephemeral writing becomes weirdly unrelated to the reality of the current online market in the United States
- The Zuck’s statements and his subsequent reorganization suggest that alignment at Facebook is a bit like a grade school student trying to fit puzzle pieces into the wrong puzzle
- Googles, glasses, implants — The fact that Facebook does not have a device has created a desire for a vehicle with a long hood and a big motor. Compensation comes in many forms.
Net net: One of the risks in the Silicon Valley world is that “real” is slippery. Do the outputs of “leadership” correlate with the reality of the organization?
Nope. Do this. Do that. See what works. Modern leadership. Will someone turn off those stupid flashing red and yellow alarm lights? I can see the floundering without the glasses, buzzing, and flashing.
Stephen E Arnold, September 1, 2025
More about AI and Peasants from a Xoogler Too
September 1, 2025
A former Googler predicts a rough ride ahead for workers. And would-be workers. Yahoo News shares “Ex-Google Exec’s Shocking Warning: AI Will Create 15 Years of ‘Hell’—Starting Sooner than We Think.” Only 15 years? Seems optimistic. Mo Gawdat issued his prophesy on the “Diary of a CEO” podcast. He expects “the end of white-collar work” to begin by the end of this decade. Indeed, the job losses have already begun. But the cascading effects could go well beyond high unemployment. Reporter Ariel Zilber writes:
“Without proper government oversight, AI technology will channel unprecedented wealth and influence to those who own or control these systems, while leaving millions of workers struggling to find their place in the new economy, according to Gawdat. Beyond economic concerns, Gawdat anticipates serious social consequences from this rapid transformation. Gawdat said AI will trigger significant ‘social unrest’ as people grapple with losing their livelihoods and sense of purpose — resulting in rising rates of mental health problems, increased loneliness and deepening social divisions. ‘Unless you’re in the top 0.1%, you’re a peasant,’ Gawdat said. ‘There is no middle class.’”
That is ominous. But, to hear Gawdat tell it, there is a bright future on the other side of those hellish 15 years. He believes those who survive past 2040 can look forward to a “utopian” era free from tedious, mundane tasks. This will free us up to focus on “love, community, and spiritual development.” Sure. But to get there, he warns, we must take certain steps:
“Gawdat said that it is incumbent on governments, individuals and businesses to take proactive measures such as the adoption of universal basic income to help people navigate the transition. ‘We are headed into a short-term dystopia, but we can still decide what comes after that,’ Gawdat told the podcast, emphasizing that the future remains malleable based on choices society makes today. He argued that outcomes will depend heavily on decisions regarding regulation, equitable access to technology, and what he calls the ‘moral programming’ of AI algorithms.”
We are sure government and Big Tech will get right on that. Totally doable in our current political and business climates. Meanwhile, Mo Gawdat is working on an “AI love coach.” I am not sure Mr. Gawdat is connected to the bureaucratic and management ethos of 2025. Is that why he is a Xoogler?
Cynthia Murrell, September 1, 2025
NATO Cyber Defense Document: Worth a Look
September 1, 2025
It’s so hard to find decent resources on cyber security these days without them trying to sell you on the latest, greatest service own product. One
Great resource is the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (CCDCOE), a multinational and interdisciplinary cyber defense hub. The organization’s mission is to support interdisciplinary expertise in cyber defense research, training and exercises covering the focus areas of technology, strategy, operations, and law.
While CCDCOE primarily serves NATO and member countries, its impactful research is useful for teaching all nations about the importance of cyber security. The organization began in May 2008 and since 2018 it has been responsible for teaching and training all NATO countries about cyber security. One of the organization’s biggest accomplishments is the Tallinn Manual:
“One of the most well-known and internationally recognised research accomplishments for CCDCOE has been the Tallinn Manual process, launched in 2009. The process has involved CCDCOE experts, internationally renowned legal scholars from various nations, legal advisors of nearly 50 states and other partners. Authored by nineteen international law experts, the “Tallinn Manual 2.0 on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Operations” published in 2017 expanded the first edition published in 2013 with a legal analysis of more common cyber incidents that states encounter on a day-to-day basis and that fall below the thresholds of the use of force or armed conflict. The Tallinn Manual 2.0 is the most comprehensive analysis on how existing international law applies to cyberspace.”
CCDCOE is a very influential organization. Cybersecurity and defense is more important now than ever because of the dangers of artificial intelligence. CCDCOE is a fantastic organization to start learning the fundamentals of cybersecurity.
Whitney Grace , September 1, 2025
Faux Boeuf Delivers Zero Calories Plus a Non-Human Toxin
August 29, 2025
No AI. Just a dinobaby working the old-fashioned way.
That sizzling rib AI called boeuf à la Margaux Blanchard is a treat. I learned about this recipe for creating filling, substantive, calorie laden content in “Wired and Business Insider Remove Articles by AI-Generated Freelancer.” I can visualize the meeting in which the decision was taken to hire Margaux Blanchard. I can also run in my mental VHS, the meeting when the issue was discovered. In my version, the group agreed to blame it on a contractor and the lousy job human resource professionals do these days.
What’s the “real” story? Let go to the Guardian write up:
On Thursday [August 22, 2025], Press Gazette reported that at least six publications, including Wired and Business Insider, have removed articles from their websites in recent months after it was discovered that the stories – written under the name of Margaux Blanchard – were AI-generated.
I frequently use the phrase “ordained officiant” in my dinobaby musings. Doesn’t everyone with some journalism experience?
The write u p said:
Wired’s management acknowledged the faux pas, saying: “If anyone should be able to catch an AI scammer, it’s Wired. In fact we do, all the time … Unfortunately, one got through. We made errors here: This story did not go through a proper fact-check process or get a top edit from a more senior editor … We acted quickly once we discovered the ruse, and we’ve taken steps to ensure this doesn’t happen again. In this new era, every newsroom should be prepared to do the same.”
Yeah, unfortunately and quickly. Yeah.
I liked this paragraph in the story:
This incident of false AI-generated reporting follows a May error when the Chicago Sun-Times’ Sunday paper ran a syndicated section with a fake reading list created by AI. Marco Buscaglia, a journalist who was working for King Features Syndicate, turned to AI to help generate the list, saying: “Stupidly, and 100% on me, I just kind of republished this list that [an AI program] spit out … Usually, it’s something I wouldn’t do … Even if I’m not writing something, I’m at least making sure that I correctly source it and vet it and make sure it’s all legitimate. And I definitely failed in that task.” Meanwhile, in June, the Utah court of appeals sanctioned a lawyer after he was discovered to have used ChatGPT for a filing he made in which he referenced a nonexistent court case.
Hey, that AI is great. It builds trust. It is intellectually satisfying just like some time in the kitchen with Margot Blanchard, a hot laptop, and some spicy prompts. Yum yum yum.
Stephen E Arnold, August 29, 2025
Computer Science Grad Job Crisis: Root Cause Revealed
August 29, 2025
No AI. Just a dinobaby working the old-fashioned way.
I read a short item called “A Popular College Major Has One of The Highest Unemployment Rates.” The article contains old news, but it also reveals one of the underlying causes of the issue.
First, here’s the set up for the “no jobs for you” write up:
Computer science ranked seventh amongst undergraduate majors with the highest unemployment at 6.1 percent, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “Every kid with a laptop thinks they’re the next Zuckerberg, but most can’t debug their way out of a paper bag,” one expert told Newsweek.
Now, let’s look at the passage that points to an underlying cause:
HR consultant Bryan Driscoll told Newsweek: Computer science majors have long been sold a dream that doesn’t match reality.
And a bit of supporting input:
Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, told Newsweek: … “We created a gold rush mentality around coding right as the gold ran out. Companies are cutting engineering budgets by 40 percent while CS enrollment hits record highs. It’s basic economics. Flood the market, crater the wages.”
My take is this another example of “think it and it will become real” patterning in the US and probably elsewhere too. College and universities wanted to “sell” student loans. Computer science was nothing more than the bait on the hook of employment for life for the mark.
When one can visualize a world and make it real corresponds to how life unspools strikes me as crazy. In my career I have met a few people who said, “I knew I wanted to be an X, so I just did it.” The majority of those with whom I have interacted in my 60 plus year work career say something like this, “Yeah, I majored in X, but an opportunity arose, and I took it. Now I do Y. Go figure.”
The “think it into reality” approach seems to deliver low probability results. Situational decisions have several upsides. First, one doesn’t have a choice for some reason. Two, surprises happen. And, three, as one moves through life (the unspooling idea) perceptions, interests, and even intelligence change.
My hunch is that today (it happens to be August 21, 2025) is that we are living in a world in which “think it and it will happen” thought processes are everywhere. Is Mark Zuckerberg suddenly concerned about an AI bubble? Will Microsoft launch Excel Copilot with a warning label that says, “This will output errors”? Will you trust your child’s medical treatment to a smart robot?
I like to thing about dialing more “real” world into everyday life. Unemployment for computer science graduates won’t change too much in the “up” direction. But at least the carnival culture approach to selling a college education, an AI start up idea to a 20 something MBA “managing director”, and the “do it for 10,000 hours and become an expert” may loosen the grip on what are some pretty wacky ideas.
Stephen E Arnold, August 29, 2025
Misunderstanding the Google: A Hot Wok
August 29, 2025
No AI. Just a dinobaby working the old-fashioned way.
I am no longer certain how many people read blog posts. Bing, Google, and Yandex seem to be crawling in a more focused way; that is, comprehensiveness is not part of the game plan. I want to do my small part by recommending that you scan (preferably study) “Google Is Killing the Open Web.”
The premise of the essay is clear: Google has been working steadily and in a relatively low PR voltage mode to control the standards for the Web. I commented on this in my Google Legacy, Google Version 2.0, and other Google writings as early as 2003. How did I identify this strategic vision? Easy. A Googler told me. This individual like it when I called Google a “calculating predator.” This person made an effort (a lame one because he worked at Google) to hear my lectures about Google’s Web search.
Now 22 years later, a individual has put the pieces together and concluded rightly that Google is killing the open Web. The essay states:
Google is managing to achieve what Microsoft couldn’t: killing the open web. The efforts of tech giants to gain control of and enclose the commons for extractive purposes have been clear to anyone who has been following the history of the Internet for at least the last decade, and the adopted strategies are varied in technique as they are in success, from Embrace, Extend, Extinguish (EEE) to monopolization and lock-in.
Several observations:
- The visible efforts to monopolize have been search, ads, and the mobile plays. The lower profile technical standards are going to be more important as new technologies emerge. The accuracy of the early Googlers’ instincts were accurate. People (namely Wok) are just figuring it out. Unfortunately it is too late.
- Because online services have a tendency to become monopolies, the world of “online” has become increasingly centralized. The “myth” of decentralization is a great one but so was “Epic of Gilgamesh.” There may be some pony in there, but the reality is that it is better to centralize and then decide what to move out there.
- The big tech outfits reside in a “country,” but the reality is that these are borderless. There is no traditional there there. Consequently governments struggle to regulate what these outfits do. Australia levies a fine on Google. So what? Google just keeps being Googley. Live with it.
One cannot undo decades of methodical, strategic thinking, and deft tactical moves quickly. My view is that changing Google will occur within Google. The management thinking is becoming increasingly like that of an AT&T type company. Chop it up and it will just glue itself back together.
I know the Wok is hot. Time to cool off and learn to thrive in the walled garden. Getting out is going to be more difficult than many other tasks. Google controls lots of technology, including the button that opens the gate to the walled garden.
Stephen E Arnold, August 26, 2025
More Innovative Google Management: Hit Delete for Middle Managers
August 28, 2025
This blog post is the work of an authentic dinobaby. Sorry. No smart software can help this reptilian thinker.
I remember a teacher lecturing about the Great Chain of Being. The idea was interesting. The Big Guy at the top, then not-so-important people, and at the bottom amoebae. Google, if the information in “Google Has Eliminated 35% of Managers Overseeing Small Teams in Past Year, Exec Says,” is on the money has embraced the Great Chain of Being.
The write up says:
Google has eliminated more than one-third of its managers overseeing small teams, an executive told employees last week, as the company continues its focus on efficiencies across the organization. “Right now, we have 35% fewer managers, with fewer direct reports” than at this time a year ago, said Brian Welle, vice president of people analytics and performance ….“So a lot of fast progress there.”
Yep, efficiency. Quicker decisions. No bureaucracy.
The write up includes this statement from the person at the top of the Great Chain of Being:
Google CEO Sundar Pichai weighed in at the meeting, reiterating the need for the company “to be more efficient as we scale up so we don’t solve everything with headcount.”
Will Google continue to trim out the irrelevant parts of the Great Chain of Being? Absolutely. Why not? The company has a VEP or a Voluntary Exit Program. From Googler to Xoogler in a flash and with benefits.
Several observations:
- Google continues to work hard to cope with the costs of its infrastructure
- Google has to find ways to offset the costs of that $0.47 per employee deal for US government entities
- Google must expand its ability to extract more cash from [a] advertisers and [b] users without making life too easy for competitors like Meta and lurkers waiting for a chance to tap into the online revenue from surveillance, subscriptions, and data licensing.
Logic suggests that the Great Chain of Being will evolve, chopping out layers between the Big Guy at the top and the amoebae at the bottom. What’s in the middle? AI powered systems. Management innovation speeds forward at the ageing Google.
Fear, confusion, and chaos appear to be safely firewalled with this new approach.
Stephen E Arnold, August 28, 2025
A Interesting Free Software: FreeVPN
August 28, 2025
No AI. Just a dinobaby working the old-fashioned way.
I often hear about the wonders of open source software. Even an esteemed technologist like Pavel Durov offers free and open source software. He wants to make certain aspects of Telegram transparent. “Transparent” is a popular word in some circles. China releases Qwen and it is free. The commercial variants are particularly stimulating. Download free and open source software. If you run into a problem, just fix it yourself. Alternatively you can pay for “commercial for fee” support. Choice! That’s the right stuff.
I read “Chrome VPN Extension with 100K Installs Screenshots All Sites Users Visit.” Note: By the time you read this, the Googlers may have blocked this extension or the people who rolled out this digital Trojan horse may have modified the extension’s behavior to something slightly less egregious.
Now back to the Trojan horse with a saddle blanket displaying the word “spyware.” I quote:
FreeVPN.One, a Chrome extension with over 100,000 installs and a verified badge on the Chrome Web Store, is exposed by researchers for taking screenshots of users’ screens and exfiltrating them to remote servers. A Koi Security investigation of the VPN tool reveals that it has been capturing full-page screenshots from users’ browsers, logging sensitive visual data like personal messages, financial dashboards, and private photos, and uploading it to aitd[.]one, a domain registered by the extension’s developer.
The explanation makes clear that one downloads and installs or activates a Chrome extension. Then the software sends data to the actor deploying the malware.
The developer says:
The extension’s developer claimed to Koi Security that the background screenshot functionality is part of a “security scan” intended to detect threats.
Whom does one believe? The threat detection outfit or the developer.
Can you recall a similar service? Hint: Capitalize the “r” in “Recall.”
Can the same stealth (clumsy stealth in some cases) exist in other free software? Does a jet air craft stay aloft when its engines fail?
Stephen E Arnold, August 28, 2025
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