Thinking about Risk: No Clip On Bow Tie
August 15, 2020
I read “Risk Bow Tie Method.” I worked through the write up, which reminded me of a reading in one of those professor-assembled Kinko’s books students HAD to purchase. The focus is a management procedure for thinking about risk. Today, there are some interesting topics which MBA study groups can consider on a thrilling Zoom call. As I examined the increasingly detailed diagrams, the procedure seemed familiar. I ratted through my files and, yes, I had a paper (maybe I snagged it at a non-Zoom conference in England in the 1990s) called “Lessons Learned from Real World Application of Bow Tie Method.” There’s version of this document available at this link.
The idea is that something happens like Covid, serial financial crashes, social unrest, private enterprise controlling information flows, etc. None of these is too serious. The idea is to make a diagram that looks like this one from the 1990s Risktec person’s write up:
If you want to be a consultant, you need a diagram without explanations. The idea is to bring discipline to a group of people who would rather check out TikTok videos, browse Facebook, or fiddle with their Robinhood account. But a job is a job, whether in person or on a Zoom call.
The advisor systematically works through the “logic” of figuring out the issues related to the minor risk an organization faces; for example, an enterprise search vendor failing to meet its financial goal for the quarter as cash burns and employees “work” from home. Yep, fill in that logical diagram.
Exercises like this are a gold mine to a consulting firm. Blue chip outfits focus on these “big picture” methods. Mid tier consulting firms and sol practitioners with a Wix Web site and Instaprint plastic stick on sign for their automobile may have trouble landing enough work to pay for working through the Bow Tie Method.
So blue chip consulting firms embrace these types of fill-in-the-blank exercises. The consultant gets to “know” the participants and can set the stage for recruiting an insider to function as a cheerleader absent pom poms. The “report” allows the consulting team to identify which options are better for the company with the data presented created by the … wait for it … the employees who participated in the Bow Tie Method process. To be fair, the consulting team has to create a PowerPoint or similar presentation. Some consulting firms just write an “Executive Memo” and move to selling follow on work.
I must admit I thought of the popular song by Stevie Wonder with these lyrics. Note: I modified the last line to match my reaction to the attempted rejuvenation of the Bow Tie Method:
His father works some days for fourteen hours
And you can bet he barely makes a dollar
His mother goes to scrub the floor for many
And you’d best believe she hardly gets a penny
Living just enough, just enough for the consulting.
Several observations:
- Is the Bow Tie Method the correct one for our interesting times? Plug in Covid, fill in the boxes, discuss options, and what do you end up with?
- Is the Bow Tie Method and other thought frameworks matched to today’s management climate? Twitter, Facebook Google, Amazon, and other FAANG outfits create risks, and I am not convinced that objective consideration of the risks to these organizations are top of mind for the top managers at this time. It seems as if the consulting frameworks have to be designed for thumbtypers and consumers of Instagram and Snap apps, not old-school frameworks from who knows where.
- The time and cost to work through a full Bow Tie Methods may increase risk for the company. Here’s how that works. The leadership of a company or country changes direction. Mixer from Microsoft. Hey, kill that dog. A Google API? No reason to provide that any more. A tweet from the White House changes the social media influencer landscape. As these here-and-now events blaze on digital devices, the time for the Bow Tie and the time for dealing with here-and-now is out of joint.
Net net: Traditional consulting methods, regardless of the fancy graphics and with-it explanations seem to be like exhibits in the British Museum. Who knew the Elgin marbles were sitting in a dark room?
Stephen E Arnold, August 15, 2020
Twitter: Another Almost Adult Moment
August 7, 2020
Indexing is useful. Twitter seems to be recognizing this fact. “Twitter to Label State-Controlled News Accounts” reports:
The company will also label the accounts of government-linked media, as well as “key government officials” from China, France, Russia, the UK and US. Russia’s RT and China’s Xinhua News will both be affected by the change. Twitter said it was acting to provide people with more context about what they see on the social network.
Long overdue, the idea of an explicit index term may allow some tweeters to get some help when trying to figure out where certain stories originate.
Twitter, a particularly corrosive social media system, has avoided adult actions. The firm’s security was characterized in a recent DarkCyber video as a clown car operation. No words were needed. The video showed a clown car.
Several questions from the DarkCyber team:
- When will Twitter verify user identities, thus eliminating sock puppet accounts? Developers of freeware manage this type of registration and verification process, not perfectly but certainly better than some other organizations’.
- When will Twitter recognize that a tiny percentage of its tweeters account for the majority of the messages and implement a Twitch-like system to generate revenue from these individuals? Pay-per-use can be implemented in many ways, so can begging for dollars. Either way, Twitter gets an identification point which may have other functions.
- When will Twitter innovate? The service is valuable because a user or sock puppet can automate content regardless of its accuracy. Twitter has been the same for a number of Internet years. Dogs do age.
Is Twitter, for whatever reason, stuck in the management mentality of a high school science club which attracts good students, just not the whiz kids who are starting companies and working for Google type outfits from their parents’ living room?
Stephen E Arnold, August 7, 2020
Spearphishing: The Pursuit of an Elusive Dorsey?
August 5, 2020
I read “Twitter Says Hack Targeted Employees Using Spearphishing.” Yep, spearphishing. That’s jargon for sending a person email and using words to obtain access. Here’s what a digital spear gun looks like:
Click away.
The write up states:
Twitter said in a security update late Thursday that the July 15 incident by bitcoin scammers stemmed from a “spear phishing” attack which deceived employees about the origin of the messages.
A bad actor, allegedly a teen, jumped in the digital ocean, carrying a mobile phone and a digital spear fishing device:
Once the target was in sight, the teen released the pointy digital stream.
The result?
The remarkable Dorsey fish appears to have been targeted by the teen.
High-tech? The write up reports:
John Dickson of the security firm Denim Group said the latest disclosure does not necessarily suggest a sophisticated attack from a nation-state. “They conned people over the phone,” Dickson said, saying it may have been possible to find targets through research on LinkedIn or Google. “This is like the original hackers from the 1980s and 1990s; they were very good at conning people and getting them to give their credentials.”
Has the Dorsey fish been beached? Did the Dorsey fish swim away? Did the Dorsey fish notice the digital attack?
No answers which satisfy DarkCyber have been forthcoming. There’s no visual evidence of the succulent Dorsey fish being steamed and served to the Twitter Board of Directors:
Looks tasty. Speared phish steamed for two minutes and then sautéed with cyber veggies.
Stephen E Arnold, August 5, 2020
When Humor and Management Theory Collide: Craziness, Maybe Worse
July 29, 2020
Two write ups made it from our news system into my “must read” file.
The first is by the Big Dog Scott Galloway. An esteemed educator, Mr. Galloway provides punditry and overtalking on the New York Magazine Pivot show. His essay “Fire & Fawning” is fascinating. The charts, the data, and the wordsmithing are noteworthy.
From DarkCyber’s point of view, Mr. Galloway is providing advice to a group of high-technology movers and shakers who are awash in lawyers, advisers, and on-the-payroll wizards.
We noted this comment:
Big tech has won before the hearing starts. Agreeing to let all four testify concurrently inhibits the committee’s ability to go deep on any one issue, and will leave the American public with a sentiment instead of a viewpoint on big tech, much less any conclusions (such as, that the Obama DOJ was asleep at the switch, and Instagram and Whatsapp should be divested). The Covid-inspired remote format dramatically lessens the likelihood of an unscripted moment that reveals something the American public didn’t previously know. Fabric softener for tough questioning is the deep pockets that keep members in power.
If the hearings are “over,” why are an additional 2,200 words required? Answer: The write up is for the elected officials who will be conducting the session. However, elected officials have lawyers, advisers, and “interns” to prepare, review, and make sense of the million plus documents available to the group doing the asking.
The key difference is the billionaire status of those responding, and the billionaire access to wizards.
Granted, political hearings are unlikely to “win” or achieve very much. Maybe some of the interns will get jobs working for the billionaires and get a chance to earn the coveted “wizard” status.
And the data in the write up? Statistical information can be shaped, discredited, and shown to be orthogonal to other data. The art is nice, however.
Net net: The write up plays to a particular audience yet maintains the overtalking tone ill-suited for a podcast and for a “business” essay designed to tell people what to do.
The second essay is “Advice for Jeff Bezos on testifying before Congress from me, the totally real Bill Gates.” The focus is narrowed to Mr. Bezos by a Silicon Valley “real” news outfit. The tone is familiar; for example, “Jeff, buddy.” The intent shares some DNA with Mr. Galloway’s overtalking. Specifically, this Silicon Valley “real” news essay reminded me something called “satirical commentary.” One of the required classes I had to endure 50 plus years ago forced me to read mocking essays and figure out what some guy who lived in Twickenham did to earn the name “the wicked wasp.” This Silicon Valley “real” news outfit’s effort struck me as tone deaf and — I need a neologism I think — snotical. Snotical is a combination of snotty and cynical. The sting? Yes, where is thy sting?
Net net: The write is likely to be ignored by Mr. Bezos’ legions of lawyer, advisers, and quite bright worker bee drone humanoids.
Stepping back from the two essays, three observations I wish to offer are:
- Public advice is Monday morning quarterbacking and about as useful
- Those far from the fray demonstrate their lack of understanding of hearing processes
- New Age hippy dippy management analyses are little more than TikTok videos in prose.
Stephen E Arnold, July 29, 2020
Adulting: An Update
July 26, 2020
DarkCyber wants to call attention to examples of adulting. The term refers to a behavior once associated with a responsible, civic-minded firm. High technology companies embrace the principles of high school science club management. Perhaps these examples indicate that high schooling is yielding to adulting, just slowly and with baby steps.
Example 1. “Google will replace Nest thermostats affected by w5 Wi-Fi error” reports a responsible action by the GOOG.
Example 2. “Twitter says it’s looking at subscription options as ad revenue drops sharply” suggests that one of the all-teen, all-the-time darlings of the technically elite may think about an action DarkCyber considers long overdue. We will have to wait and see. Adulting is painful, a bit like giving up one’s dream of running two companies from a far off land.
Example 3. “Amazon, Google and Wish remove neo-Nazi products” reveals that three essentially manic science club operations have reached a simultaneous moment of maturing. Each will remove products identified with potentially destructive concepts. Maturity comes slowly it seems even in the zoom zoom world of high technology.
Stephen E Arnold, July 27, 2020
Facebook: Grudgingly Takes Steps Toward Adulthood
July 21, 2020
I read “FB Says Open to Be Held Accountable over Users’ Data.” The write up reports:
Admitting that it does not have all the answers when it comes to ensuring data privacy, Facebook has said there are many opportunities for businesses and regulators to embrace modern design methods and collaborate to find innovative ways to hold organizations, including itself, accountable.
Interesting. Facebook was founded in 2004. Sixteen years old and ready for a drivers license. Baby steps are good.
Stephen E Arnold, July 21, 2020
Muffing the Bunny: The Skype Animal
July 15, 2020
Sad news. One of the founding Skype engineers has died. We crossed paths at a conference in 2009. The news appeared in “Estonian Engineer Who Helped Develop Skype Passes Away at 48.”
The write up contained this summary of the trajectory of Skype:
eBay acquired Skype in 2005 for $2.6 billion…Skype became a part of Microsoft in 2012. Microsoft has said it would continue to invest in Skype that has crossed 40 million daily active users. Purchased for $8.5 billion, Skype communication tool has failed to keep up with other messaging rivals to date, while Microsoft Teams has seen a meteoric rise as millions of people work from home.
eBay had the service and accidentally ran over the Skype bunny with a riding mower. The three legged Skype was acquired by Microsoft, a company which has managed to make the interface particularly interesting. Someone like a day laborer for the Spanish Inquisition would add it to a collection in which an Iron Maiden plays a prominent part.
Now in 2020 it is teams.
Any thoughts about the trajectory of Skype and eBay’s and Microsoft’s strategic vision regarding video chat via the Internet?
How much longer will the bunny live? Beyond 15 years?
Stephen E Arnold, July 15, 2020
YouTube Deletes Raw Videos of Aged Electronics Repair
July 9, 2020
A loyal fan of DarkCyber sent me a link to a video called “Youtube DELETED Jordan Pier’s Electronics Repair Channel!” For those hip to the zippity dippity world of Silicon Valley and Googley decisions, the decision makes perfect and logical sense.
Jordan Pier and his disgusting old electronics represent the past which must be removed. I think of vintage electronics in the same terms I frame statues of people whose names I don’t know.
Imagine. Rip open a wooden box. Expose disgusting and old fashioned capacitors. Wires have fabric on them some time. Bare wires should be sealed in epoxy so an independent repair person can just watch YouTube videos, not make them.
DarkCyber understands that digital and unrepairable electronics are the future. What if your beloved smart Pixel phone goes to the digital grave yard. Throw it out. Don’t even think about repairing that device or your MacBook Air or your friend’s father’s John Deere tractor.
Take those offensive repair videos down. Snuff out information about the past. Stalin would be proud. Naked electronics require revisionist action.
Stephen E Arnold, July 8, 2020
High Schoolers: The Cafeteria Jibes Continue
July 7, 2020
I read “What’s Really Behind Tech Versus Journalism?” The write up’s goal is to explain that the Silicon Valley crowd is not happy with “real” journalists.
The article asserts:
Let me start with a brief recounting of events — and acknowledge that I played a role in some of them.
Okay, an autobiographical account of the origin of the high school cafeteria spat. The combatants are the whiz kids in Science Club. This is the organization which may have served as the inspiration for the film “Revenge of the Nerds.”
At the other table in the lunch room are the writers, the wordsmiths able to melt the hearts of English teachers and inflame the school’s administration with poems, pamphlets, and pulsing pellets of prose.
Now the two factions are grown up. The science club crowd wants to do what it wants. That’s the move fast, break stuff group informed by its interpretation of the smartest people in the room.
The pulsing pellets of prose group wants to right wrongs. That’s the we know better than you faction. Those required readings provide the tinder for burning outrage.
As adults, the members of these groups no longer skirmish in the close confines of an 18 minute lunch break for hyper active teenyboppers. The battle is on a bigger stage. The science club members have done bad things. The pellets of prose crowd becomes the target for the anger of the whiz kids. Confusion and chaos ensue. After 20 years of doing whatever, the science club folks want their status quo to remain, well, static.
The prose pellet pals want the wrongs of the science club fixed and fast. I can hear the taunts grinding in the background.
The write up reports:
Workers still face significant obstacles as they lobby to create more fair and equitable workplaces.
The notion of “workplaces” seems quaint, almost old-fashioned. That’s just one of the oddities in the write up. Add that pre-Covid stance to the autobiographical spin.
The administrators get involved. And who may these respected individuals be? Venture capitalists, the skin in the game crowd, the MBA torpedoes blasting their way through mere social norms:
Certainly, the worlds of tech and venture capital have complaints about journalism that go beyond hit pieces. … The exasperation is real, even if the scrutiny is a natural consequence of starting a company that aims to change the world.
Let’s step back.
I have used the phrase “high school science club management methods” to describe the approach to governance evidenced among some of the high-tech, high-performance companies. The HSSCMM — which one upscale, bug buck “real” journalist did not understand when I explained the concept — is one way to approach decisions which have unintended consequences; for example, Facebook and its dealings with those involved in the Cambridge Analytica matter. As I recall, exactly zero changed at Facebook. Also, there’s innovation starved companies like Google buying an obscure maker of semi functional Google Glass devices. I can almost hear the inner voices of Googlers whispering, “We are behind, we are behind. Buy the company, buy the company.” Will this deal be a Dodgeball II reprise.
The “real” journalists, for their part are wordsmiths. The idea the pen is mightier than the checkbook lives on.
The dispute is one more example of how one faction of high school achievers responds to another faction. The issues require more than jibes, knee jerk reactions, and “I told you” so’s.
That’s one of the consequences of allowing a particular mind set make decisions because of this rationale: “We can just do it. So there.”
Both the technology wizards from the science club and the wordsmiths from the writing club see themselves as informed individuals. Both in their view are “right,” which is a nebulous concept in a relativistic world of dynamic data.
The problem from my point of view is that these views emerged fully formed from a 15-year-old brains, were refined by conversations with fellow travelers, and encouraged by those who could make money from these young achievers.
After decades of ministrations by nurturing venture capitalists, what have we got? A food fight, but is a food fight is not what’s needed to address significant issues about governance, ethical behavior, and professional conduct.
Net net: Watch out. That angry teen just threw a Twinkie at the principal.
Stephen E Arnold, July 7, 2020
The Legacy of HP Management Expertise: Quibi
July 1, 2020
When I hear the name “quibi”, I think of Hewlett Packard in the era of Meg Whitman. My focus narrows to some interesting decisions by the Board of Directors, a somewhat high-profile acquisition, a vendetta which targets a feisty computer scientist, and a great big lawsuit. The lawsuit by the way is of the variety that is likely to be a source of income for attorneys for years to come. You know the litigation matter: Meg Whitman’s former outfit and the Cambridge engineer/scientist Mike Lynch. I will name the word: Autonomy.
I read “The Fall of Quibi: How Did a Starry $1.75bn Netflix Rival Crash So Fast.” What’s interesting about this “real” newspaper’s “real” news story is that it mostly misses the boat or, at the very list, trips over the step when boarding the tube.
The article identifies what anyone listening to chatter in the line up to buy a Starbuck’s confection knows: Short videos, free for some people, no one cares, and an oddball selection of content without programs like Cheers or Seinfeld.
What catches the attention of would be financiers is the number $1.75 billion. What catches the attention of those with Hollywood in their DNA is the name Jeffrey Katzenberg. What catches the attention of the DarkCyber research team is the co Big Dog Meg Whitman.
The “real” news story cares little about Ms. Whitman and her management “successes.” I assume that those researching the story were unaware that some individuals with first hand information about her management expertise were just too difficult to reach. What’s the distance? Maybe a mile, maybe less.
The write up states:
Notionally, Quibi endeavored to industrialize a new frontier of television: short-form narratives – that is, episodes of 15 minutes or less – at its shortest and most expansive.
Okay.
Here’s a promising factoid, courtesy of a Murdoch-owned “real” news outfit:
Meanwhile, several unflattering reports have depicted internal strife behind the scenes. The Wall Street Journal detailed longstanding friction between Katzenberg and Whitman’s working relationship.
DarkCyber believes that there is a ton of useful information floating around about Quibi. There’s a gold mine of information about Ms. Whitman and her approach to guiding a business. There’s even information available to put some meat on the bones of the launch during the pandemic.
What do we get? “Real” news.
Stephen E Arnold, July 1, 2020
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