IBM: Watson, What Is Happening?
May 22, 2020
I like to think about the wisdom of IBM Watson. A large company developed smart software able to beat mere humans in a TV game show. Amazing, but I asked myself after Watson “won” jeopardy, “What about that post production process?”
Now IBM’s actual production process is visible. A new Big Blue dog Arvind Krishna is controlling the pack of huskies. Such is the success of the racing sled in a time of Covid that IBM will not cut its five percent dividend, according to the “real news” service Fox Business.
IBM hedged by declining to make a forecast for 2020. IBM’s future is bright, but apparently it is not that bright.
“IBM to Cut Thousands of Jobs As Coronavirus Plays Out” reveals that some surplus employees will be reduced in force. Fox reported:
“IBM’s work in a highly competitive marketplace requires flexibility to constantly remix to high-value skills, and our workforce decisions are made in the long-term interests of our business. Recognizing the unique current conditions, IBM is offering subsidized medical coverage to all affected U.S. employees through June 2021” a company spokesman said in a statement.
If one is not terminated, what’s the people process at IBM look like? Think bare knuckles boxing maybe? “IBM Says It’s Giving Employees the Opportunity to Compete for Positions” explains:
“As part of IBM’s regular assessment of how we work, we are simplifying how we operate to position our business for high value growth opportunities and better meet client demand,” a spokesperson said. “Employees will have the opportunity to re-skill and compete for positions where roles are available.”
Unlike some Silicon Valley outfits, having employees work from home is the first step (a generally gentle one) in eliminating surplus. The office space will go and then the less productive work from homers will be invited to a Zoom meeting for a “Find Your Future” elsewhere session.
Big Blue is more direct, more gladiatorial: Get terminated or get into the octagon. Fight Ralph, the slightly overweight and near sighted OmniFind expert for a paycheck.
Wouldn’t it be more interesting to have Watson battle Facebook, Google, and Microsoft in a smart software battle to prove which company is Number One?
Watson, what do you think of my suggestion? IBM’s approach to returning to glory is interesting, but it seems old fashioned: Layoffs and internal competition. Very Darwin.
Watson, you know about Darwin, right?
Stephen E Arnold, May 22, 2020
British Wit: Carry On
May 15, 2020
Love the tone this person takes. Very person centric. If you want a sign like this, you can get it with a click. Do you have control over what’s output. Of course not.
Get your own carry on sign at this link. Heck of a guy that Olaf Falafel because he hits on many of the management characteristics of Silicon Valley companies and some governmental bureaucrats.
Stephen E Arnold, May 15, 2020
Zooming: Uber Lets Off Some Passengers
May 13, 2020
DarkCyber does not know if this story is spot on, but it is interesting. The estimable UK tabloid the Daily Mail (yes, the one with the videos one cannot turn off without five or six clicks) published “Today will be Your Last Working Day with Uber.” Other firms allegedly have used Zoom videoconferencing to inform the surplus humanoids that they can find their future elsewhere. (DarkCyber loves that phrase “Find your future elsewhere, don’t you, gentle reader?)
According to the estimable news service:
At least 3,500 Uber employees learned that they were being laid off in a three minute Zoom call last week.
The online version of the story includes the allegedly “real” video of an Uber person (still employed at the time) bid farewell to the Übermenschen.
The person nuking these individuals has a fascinating title; to wit:
Head of Uber’s customer service at Uber’s Phoenix Center of Excellence.
Zoom is in the news, but in this instance, it is not the insights of the video conferencing firm’s security advisor. The use of Zoom by a go go Silicon Valley firm makes the headline. DarkCyber wants to add that the Daily Mail’s headline is very Googley.
Stephen E Arnold, May 13, 2020
The Cost of High School Science Club and Its Management Method
May 6, 2020
I read in Forbes, the capitalist tool, “Google’s Top Quantum Scientist Explains In Detail Why He Resigned.” The write up is an interview with a a high profile expert in quantum computing. His name? Dr. John Marinis. The interview contains a number of interesting factoids plus some PR, but that’s the norm today.
DarkCyber noted this statement by the former Googler:
I think it was hard on people in the group to focus on quantum supremacy because it meant they couldn’t work on other things they wanted to do, and most importantly, we could fail. And it seems tension comes with focus.
I use the phrase “high school science club management method” to describe how a group of young men and women who are usually exceptional in math and science behave in a club formed and run by themselves. There may be an adviser, but that person is in my experience a former member of a high school science club.
The club is insular, operates with considerable freedom because other people are “stupid,” “don’t get it,” or are “wasting time on silly things.”
Google has become one of the foremost proponents of the HSSCMM, and the efforts of the Google CFO attest to the difficulty of reigning in the spending in a science club management environment.
Observations:
- The quote from the quantum expert underscores Google’s inability to tolerate focus.
- IBM (a content marketing fog machine) and Google found themselves squabbling about quantum supremacy.
- The HSSCMM essentially forced a focused and talented wizard to quit.
Net net: Google’s management method generates revenue but if the cost is a loss of talented specialists, what’s that say about the efficacy of the high school approach?
Stephen E Arnold, May 6, 2020
The Bulldozer and Bray: Amazon and Its People Policies in Action
May 4, 2020
I read “Bye, Amazon.” The author is Tim Bray. Some may remember him as one of the spark plugs of Open Text. He did some nifty visualization work. He did the Google thing until 2014. From 2014 until a couple of days ago he worked at Amazon, the Bezos bulldozer, the online bookstore, and all-around economic engine of Covid America.
The write up states:
I quit in dismay at Amazon firing whistleblowers who were making noise about warehouse employees frightened of Covid-19.
When Amazon terminated with prejudice the Amazonians protesting.
Mr. Bray’s reaction was
Snap!
Mr. Bray was upset, went through Amazon channels, and resigned.
He states about the warehouse worker action:
It’s not just workers who are upset. Here are Attorneys-general from 14 states speaking out. Here’s the New York State Attorney-general with more detailed complaints. Here’s Amazon losing in French courts, twice.
On the other hand, he points out:
Amazon Web Services (the “Cloud Computing” arm of the company), where I worked, is a different story. It treats its workers humanely, strives for work/life balance, struggles to move the diversity needle (and mostly fails, but so does everyone else), and is by and large an ethical organization. I genuinely admire its leadership.
In his penultimate paragraph he offers:
At the end of the day, it’s all about power balances. The warehouse workers are weak and getting weaker, what with mass unemployment and (in the US) job-linked health insurance. So they’re gonna get treated like crap, because capitalism. Any plausible solution has to start with increasing their collective strength.
Several observations:
- Mr. Bray has a moral compass. DarkCyber finds that of value.
- Amazon’s “power” has been largely unchecked since the mid 1990s, and only now are actions building like storm clouds on the horizon.
- Mr. Bray was able to continue working for the Google but he could not continue working at Amazon. That’s interesting in itself.
Net net: Will Amazon take steps to deal with what seems to be the Tim Bray situation? Do Prime customers get orders delivered on time? Not if warehouse employees put sand in the Bezos bulldozer’s differential.
Stephen E Arnold, May 4, 2020
Adulting: Will It Persist?
May 4, 2020
The lure of leasing a flashy vehicle is strong. Will start ups acquire a reputation for financial probity? DarkCyber is not confident that adulting will endure. The Financial Times (remember its Endeca-based search system?) published “Hottest Silicon Valley Start Ups Begin to Sell Themselves at a Discount.” [Note: this is a link generated by the Financial Times’ security system. You may have to do some experimenting to get the write up to render. You will know you are on the right track when the wonky flesh colored background appears.] Furthermore, the write up asserts, “Balance of power shifts back to investors as founders look to bolster balance sheets.”
The write up includes a Captain Obvious quote attributed to a partner at the upscale law firm Fenwick & West:
“It’s bold and risky to be giving a company a term sheet in this really uncertain environment, and to give that investor downside protection does not seem unfair.”
We love the “does not seem unfair.” Too bad the lawyer did not include a “but for.”
DarkCyber concluded, after pondering the write up on a screen tinted the color of some humanoids’ skin:
- Shakespeare, Merchant of Venice phrase : “pound of flesh”
- Handwaving and virtue signaling are popular
- Bros will be bros
- Lawyers win regardless of the “risk” investors face.
Net net: The bubble is losing its heady mix of methane, sulfur dioxide, and volatile organic compounds or VOCs.
Stephen E Arnold, May 4, 2020
Looking for the story about SEO fraud? If so, click here.
Policeware and Intelware: Change Underway, Pushback Likely
April 29, 2020
Law enforcement and intelligence are tricky subjects. For decades, the work of government employees and the specialized firms supporting sensitive operations have worked to stay out of the headlines. The spotlight was for rock stars and movie icons, not for investigators, security, and intelligence professionals.
Most of the companies in what I call the policeware and intelware markets have to and prefer to work with people who have been in their foxhole. The result has been the equivalent of a stealth market sector. The clients — traditionally government agencies — like the low profile approach as well. Many of the activities of these professionals and the firms supporting their operations are in a position of considerable risk.
But that seems to be changing. Recent examples include:
Cellebrite’s Covid campaign. The idea is that specialized mobile phone analysis tools can assist with the pandemic. You can read about this in “Cellebrite Pitching iPhone Hacking Tools As a Way to Stop COVID-19.”
A lone wolf employee. You can learn that the NSO Group finds itself in the middle of another PR issue. You can read about this challenge in “NSO Employee Abused Phone Hacking Tech to Target a Love Interest.”
A little known past of a high profile innovator. The somewhat unusual company Banjo finds itself in the spotlight over the allegations made about the firm’s founder. You can read about this in “CEO of Surveillance Firm Banjo Once Helped KKK Leader Shoot Up a Synagogue.”
These examples — if accurate and verifiable — suggest that Silicon Valley attitudes have penetrated the developers of policeware and intelware.
The majority of the companies providing specialized services are probably operating in a reasonably responsible way. Today policeware and intelware have become a multi billion dollar a year market. Most people will never encounter outfits with names like Elbit, Gamma or iCarbon X, and hundreds of others.
The fact is that the behaviors of a small number of companies is causing the policeware and intelware vendors to become the stuff of the talking heads on televised news programs, the launch pad for tweets and blog posts, and a source of embarrassment for the government entities relying on these companies and their products.
What troubles DarkCyber is that an increasing number of vendors of specialized services have realized that many government functions cannot operate without their expertise, products, and engineering. Consequently, what I call “high school science club management” has pushed aside the traditional methods of generating revenue.
Now policeware and intelware vendors offer podcasts, assuming that investigators and intelligence professionals have the time and interest to listen to marketing information about the latest and greatest in graph generation, analytics, and visualization.
There are experts who want to build their own book and training businesses. In the last three days, I have received a half dozen email blandishments to attend this free webinar or download that list of OSINT tools.
What’s next?
Google online advertising to get me to license Blackdot, Qwarie, and Vesper technology?
Here’s the problem:
There are too many companies chasing available policeware and intelware dollars. Established vendors capture the significant projects; for example, Darpa awarded a hefty machine learning contract to BAE Systems, one of the go-to vendors of advanced technology to defense, law enforcement, and intelligence entities.
But every dominant vendor like BAE Systems, there are dozens, if not hundreds, of smaller firms vying to contract. These smaller firms usually work within the procedures which began taking shape in World War II, largely influenced by countries like Britain and several others.
The new companies appear to support the Facebook- and Google-type approach to business. From move fast and break things to digital misdirection, the approach to generating revenue from LE and intel related products and services is shifting. Forget the low profile, off the radar approach. Today it is big trade show booths, podcasts, videos, webinars, and increasingly Madison Avenue style marketing.
Not surprisingly, the three examples cited in this essay are quite different. Cellebrite is virtue signaling. NSO Group is struggling with a lone wolf action. Banjo is dealing with a founder’s youthful dalliance with distasteful activities.
It is indeed risky to generalize. Nevertheless, something is happening within the policeware and intelware market sector. I cannot recall a cluster of news events about LE and intel service providers which startle and surprise in a triple tap moment.
Is there a fix? I want to be positive. Other firms in this sector have an opportunity to assess what their staff are doing with products and services of a quite special nature. Like the nuclear industry, great management effort is needed on an ongoing basis to ensure that secrets remain secret.
The nuclear industry may not be perfect. But at this moment in time, policeware and intelware vendors may want to examine the hiring, management, and institutional approaches in use for decades.
Regulation may be useful, but policeware and intelware is a global activity. Self-control, ethical behavior, and tight management controls are necessary. Easy to say but tough to do because of the revenue pressure many of these vendors face. Plus, outsourcing means that government agencies often cannot do their work without third party support. There is a weird symbiosis visible today: Funding sources, technologists, enforcement officers, procurement professionals, and managers with an MBA.
Bad actors love these revelations. Each item of information that reveals capabilities, weaknesses, and methodologies helps those who would undertake criminal or deleterious activities.
Unless the vendors themselves button up, the unmentionables will be exposed and flap in the wind.
Stephen E Arnold, April 29, 2020
Google and Its Cost Cutting: More Than Meets the Eye
April 24, 2020
DarkCyber is pleased that CNBC continues to write interesting news stories. In fact, this write up only mentions Covid twice, a new record for news associated with talking head video. “Google to Cut Marketing Budgets by As Much as Half, Directors Warned of Hiring Freezes” reports:
Google is slashing its marketing budgets by as much as half for the second half of the year, according to internal materials viewed by CNBC. One email about the cuts went out to marketing employees this week, noting the budget cuts and a new hiring freeze for full-time and contract employees.
The now standard unnamed sources and no picture of the “documents” the canny CNBC news sleuths were able to read.
Let’s assume that everything in the write is accurate. Let’s ask some questions which are not addressed in the scoop:
- What’s the connection between Google’s giving away free product listings in Google Shopping and this new austerity?
- What is the increase in data center and bandwidth in the last three years? Why has Google’s CFO been unable to trim or stabilize these costs?
- What will Google do to hold back or flatten the ad losses to Amazon and Facebook?
- What are the direct costs associated with Google’s new found sense of responsibility for problematic content in ads and in YouTube videos?
DarkCyber’s analyses suggest that Google is now suffering from more than two decades of mismanagement. My research team calls this style of running a company the high school science club management method of HSSCMM. The idea is that decisions made without context or sufficient wisdom have created a machine that devours available cash.
On the surface, Google is Googley. But beneath the surface are indications of stress. There are employee pushbacks. There is interesting management behavior in the legal department. There is a palpable sense of vulnerability to Amazon and Facebook.
Googzilla is starting to shiver because there are more innovative, aggressive predators sniffing around the happy campus in Mountain View.
The reaction? Innovation, happy employees, bug free services, relevant search results, easy to use products like Google Maps?
Nope.
Fire people in marketing. Once the lawyers were housed in trailers “off campus.” Now another non engineering group is sacrificed to feed the maw of tough to control technology costs. Sacrifice the marketers.
Stephen E Arnold, April 24, 2020
Google: The Laser That Threatened James Bond Creeps Closer to the Private Parts of the GOOG
April 23, 2020
Update: I omitted the link to the actual Googler blog post. Too excited thinking about “integrity.” My bad.
Goldfinger was an interesting film. In 1965, lasers were advanced. Some thought they were death rays. The Hollywood people, sunning around the pool with Technicolor drinks, thought the laser was the ideal way to burn James Bond’s private parts. Goldfinger was the bad actor. Now Google’s integrity weapon may be threatening Alphabet’s private parts. Odd job indeed.
The laser posed a risk to the fictional James Bond’s private parts. The Google integrity verification is a similar risk with one difference: Googlers are steering the destructive beam of actual data toward Alphabet’s secret places.
Flash forward to 2020, “Google to Require All Advertisers to Pass Identity Verification Process.” The word “all” is probably not warranted, but it sounds good. Talking heads enjoy glittering generalities and categorical affirmatives.
Nevertheless, the news story, if accurate, reveals some interesting quasi-factoids. Here’s one example:
Google began requiring political advertisers wanting to run election ads on its platform to verify their identity back in 2018. Now, that program is being extended to all advertisers, the company wrote in a blog post this morning from John Canfield, its director of product management for ads integrity. The change will allow consumers to see who’s running an ad and which country they’re located in when they click “Why this ad?” on a placement.
Advertisers have to “prove” something other than having a mechanism to put funds into a Google advertising account. Second, Google has a job description which includes these words: “Management” and “integrity.” Plus, the information will not help Google. Nope, the winners in knowing who allegedly buys ads is “consumers.”
Google’s integrity person allegedly said:
“This change will make it easier for people to understand who the advertiser is behind the ads they see from Google and help them make more informed decisions when using our advertising Controls,” John Canfield, Google’s director of product management for ads integrity, said in the post. “It will also help support the health of the digital advertising ecosystem by detecting bad actors and limiting their attempts to misrepresent themselves.”
How does one become verified by Google’s integrity people?
Organizations are required to submit personal legal information (like a W9 or IRS document showing the organization’s name, address and employer identification number). An individual from the organization also needs to provide legal identification on the organization’s behalf. Individuals have to show government-issued photo ID like a passport or ID card. Google said it previously had collected basic information about the advertiser but didn’t require documentation to verify.
How effective are Google’s efforts to filter, screen, and verify? We know that human traffickers and others in this line of business have infiltrated videos on YouTube. We know that one can run a query for “Photoshop crakz”:
Apparently Google’s system cannot block listings for stolen commercial software. In fact, the listing for this illegal offering was updated three days ago. DarkCyber knows that some legitimate sites’ content has not been updated for longer periods of time. Notice how Google’s smart autocorrect changed “crakz” into “cracked.” Helpful smart software. Why does Google display the result? Why doesn’t Adobe email Google’s search wizards to have these links with illegal intent filtered? One reason may be that Adobe has emailed Google customer support and is, like many others with questions for the Google, waiting for a response from an informed Googler?
When Corporate and Personal Goals Collide: Efficiency over the Individual
April 23, 2020
I read “Covid-19 and the Welcome Collapse of Professionalism.” The write up has a defeatist quality. Consider this passage:
Over the last few weeks, I’ve navigated my own emotional response to the pandemic while attempting to model the leadership I believe is important in times like these: empathetic, decisive, present.
Empathy, decisiveness, and presentness? Does this sound like a young adult trying to explain what he or she wants to do as a parent. There is a sense of loss and longing in the statement quoted above. “Emotional” comes up short. How about the word “psychological”?
The context of the write up is, of course, the crisis of the Great Pandemic. The assumptions in the essay are that the Organization Man’s definition of professionalism is not right for our times. Interesting, just not professional based on my work experience.
What is professional?
Consider Amazon. “Public Plea to AWS: Give Free Credits to Startups Around the World” explains that a successful online bookseller should have “mom” characteristics; that is, empathy, decisiveness, and presentness—just tailored to the needs of the emotional little people.
The article implores:
I am asking AWS to offer us all additional credits based on the last 12 month’s spend. Help us … based on how much business we do with you. Reward your loyal customers. Offering us all, say, the equivalent of one quarter’s standard usage based on the last 12 months of consumption would be a spectacular way you can help us through this difficult time.
These two write ups are interesting. Both are emotional. Both reveal a keen desire to have a parental intervention make everything all better.
The first wants everyone to redefine professionalism, presumably to make work kinder, friendlier, and chock full of goodness. Maybe like a pre-school daycare with really kind staff, milk, and cookies.
The second wants the world’s richest man to give stuff away for free. The argument is that “everybody wins.”
Reality check:
- Work is generally not like day care. People in groups have a tendency to demonstrate human qualities. These include behaviors not in line with empathy, decisiveness, and presentness. Concepts like “I don’t care if your kid is having a birthday party, the report is due tomorrow.” and “I am not sure what to do. You and your team figure it out.” and “I have a plane to catch. Deal with it.”
- The really rich people like to charge people, get money, and increase their cash reserve as a way to keep score. Giving stuff away free is okay if it hooks the person into spending more and forever.
Several observations:
These pleas for change at a time of pandemic are interesting.
Most of the bleats will be white noise.
Change is likely to arrive, but it may not be what those looking for emotional comfort or a benign corporate Santa will deliver.
Net net: Corona pleading may be a new form of Silicon Valley inspired writing. Worth monitoring but with appropriate empathy, decisiveness, and presentness, of course.
Stephen E Arnold, April 23, 2020
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