Will Apple Weather Forecast Storms in Beijing?
November 6, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
The stock markets in the US have been surfing on the wave skimmers owned by the “magnificent seven.” The phrase refers to the FAANG crowd plus that AI fave NVidia and everyone’s favorite auto from Tesla. Has something gone subtly amiss at Apple, the darling of the hip graphics and “I love Linux” crowd?
“My weather app said it would be warm and sunny. What happened to smart software?” says the disenchanted young person. Rain is a good thing, not a bummer. Thanks, MidJourney. This image reminds me of those weird illustrations of waifs with big eyes. Inspiration is where one finds it.
I don’t know. I would point to one faint signal contained in the online write up “Why Apple’s Weather App Is So Bad.” The article makes it clear that weather forecasting is tricky. Software is not yet up to the of delivering accurate information about rain. Rain, I suppose, is one of those natural phenomena opaque to smart people, smart software, and smart acquisitions.
The statement in the write up which caught my attention was:
Over this time, this relentless weekend-only rain has also affirmed that Apple’s weather app is pretty much useless. Personally, I’ve learned that the app cannot distinguish between “light rain” and “rain,” that the percentages it spits out feel bogus, and to never trust it when it tells you what time the rain will stop. I’m not alone. My friends and coworkers also have various stories about how the app has let them down, or how sometimes it just won’t work. Some even talk about Dark Sky, a weather-forecasting app that Apple bought in 2020, with a mournful, wistful sadness, like a lost love. Apple says Dark Sky’s most beloved features have been integrated into its app, but Dark Sky fans aren’t convinced. Things were different then, they say. Things were better.
Did you spot the knife twist? Here it is, ripped from the heart of the paragraph:
sometimes it just won’t work
No big deal. A weather app. But Apple appeared to have ripped a page from the Google’s Management Handbook. Jon Stewart departed from Apple. The reasons are mysterious, a bit like the Dark Sky falling in Cupertino. I also noticed that Apple has a certain connection to China, particularly with regard to that most magical and almost unchanged candy bar phone. Granted it revolutionized Apple’s financial position, but does the contractor who assist me required a device to thaw the hearts of Apple lovers on a ski slope. (No raid predicted, I assume.)
Net net: Rain, Mr. Stewart, and the supply chain to China. Are these signals worth monitoring? Probably not. When I need a weather forecast, this dinobaby just looks out a window, not at a mobile phone.
Stephen E Arnold, November 6, 2023
Google Giggles: Late October 2023 Edition
October 25, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
The Google Giggles is nothing more than items reported in the “real” news about the antics, foibles, and fancy dancing of the world’s most beloved online advertising system.
Googzilla gets a kick out of these antics. Thanks, MidJourney. You do nice but repetitive dinosaur illustrations.
Giggle 1: Liking sushi is not the same as sushi liking you. “The JFTC Opens an Investigation and Seeks Information from Third Parties Concerning the Suspected Violation of the Antimonopoly Act by Google LLC, Etc.” Now that’s a Googley headline from the government of Japan. Why? Many items are mentioned in the cited document; for example, mobile devices, the Google Play Store, and sharing of search advertising. Would our beloved Google exploit its position to its advantage? Japan wants to know more. Many people do because the public trial in the US is not exactly outputting public information in a comprehensive, unredacted way, is it?
Giggle 2: Just a minor change in the Internet. Google wants to protect content, respect privacy, and help out its users. Listen up, publishers, creators, and authors. “Google Chrome’s New IP Protection Will Hide Users’ IP Addresses” states:
As the traffic will be proxied through Google’s servers, it may make it difficult for security and fraud protection services to block DDoS attacks or detect invalid traffic. Furthermore, if one of Google’s proxy servers is compromised, the threat actor can see and manipulate the traffic going through it. To mitigate this, Google is considering requiring users of the feature to authenticate with the proxy, preventing proxies from linking web requests to particular accounts, and introducing rate-limiting to prevent DDoS attacks.
Hmmm. Can Google see the traffic, gather data, and make informed decisions? Would Google do that?
Giggle 3: A New Language. Google’s interpretation of privacy is very, very Googley. “When Is a Privacy Button Not a Privacy Button? When Google Runs It, Claims Lawsuit” explains via a quote from a legal document:
"Google had promised that by turning off this [saving a user’s activity] feature, users would stop Google from saving their web and app activity data, including their app-browsing histories," the fourth amended complaint [PDF] says. "Google’s promise was false."
When Google goes to court, Google seems to come out unscathed and able to continue its fine work. In this case, Google is simply creating its own language which I think could be called Googlegrok. One has to speak it to be truly Googley. Now what does “trust” mean?
Giggle 4: Inventing AI and Crawfishing from Responsibility. I read “AI Risk Must Be Treated As Seriously As Climate Crisis, Says Google DeepMind Chief.” What a hoot! The write up’s subtitle is amazing:
Demis Hassabis calls for grater regulation to quell existential fears over tech with above human levels of intelligence.
Does this Google posture suggest that the firm is not responsible for the problems it is creating and diffusing because “government” is not regulating a technology? Very clever. Perhaps a bit of self control is more appropriate? But I am no longer Googley. The characteristic goes away with age and the end of checks.
Giggle 5: A Dark Cloud. Google reported strong financial results. With online ads in Google search and YouTube.com, how could the firm fail its faithful? “Google Cloud Misses Revenue Estimates — And It’s Your Fault, Wanting Smaller Bills” reports that not all is gold in the financial results. I noted this statement:
Another concerning outcome for the Google cloud was that its $266 million operating income number was down from $395 million in the previous quarter – when revenue was $370 million lower.
Does this mean that the Google Cloud is an issue? In my lingo, “issue” means, “Is it time for the Google to do some clever market adaptation?” Google once was good at clever. Now? Hmmm.
Are you giggling? I am.
Stephen E Arnold, October 25, 2023
The Google Experience: Personnel Management and Being Fair
October 23, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
The Google has been busy explaining to those who are not Googley that it is nothing more than a simple online search engine. Heck, anyone can use another Web search system with just a click. Google is just delivering a service and doing good.
I believe this because I believe everything a big high-technology outfit says about the Internet. But there is one facet of this company I find fascinating; namely, it’s brilliant management of people or humanoids of a particular stripe.
The Backstory
Google employees staged a walkout in 2018, demanding a safer and fairer workplace for women when information about sexual discrimination and pay discrepancies leaked. Google punished the walkout organizers and other employees, but they succeed in ending the forced arbitration policy that required employees to settle disputes privately. Wired’s article digs into the details: “This Exec Is Forcing Google Into Its First Trial over Sexist Pay Discrimination.”
Google’s first pay discrimination case will be argued in New York. Google cloud unit executive Ulku Rowe alleges she was hired at a lower salary than her male co-workers. When she complained, she claims Google denied her promotions and demoted her. Rowe’s case exposed Google’s executive underbelly.
The case is also a direct result of the walkout:
“The costs and uncertainty of a trial combined with a fear of airing dirty laundry cause companies to settle most pay discrimination lawsuits, says Alex Colvin, dean of Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations. Last year, the US government outlawed forced arbitration in sexual harassment and sexual assault cases, but half of US employers still mandate it for other disputes. Rowe would not be scheduled to have her day in court if the walkout had not forced Google to end the practice. “I think that’s a good illustration of why there’s still a push to extend that law to other kinds of cases, including other kinds of gender discrimination,” Colvin says.”
The Outcome
“Google Ordered to Pay $1 Million to Female Exec Who Sued over Gender Discrimination” reported:
A New York jury on Friday decided that Google did commit gender-based discrimination, and now owes Rowe a combined $1.15 million for punitive damages and the pain and suffering it caused. Rowe had 23 years of experience when she started at Google in 2017, and the lawsuit claims she was lowballed at hiring to place her at a level that paid significantly less than what men were being offered.
Observation
It appears that the Googley methods at the Google are neither understood nor appreciated by some people.
Whitney Grace, October 23, 2023
Microsoft Making Changes: Management and Personnel Signals
October 17, 2023
![Vea4_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_t[2]](https://arnoldit.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Vea4_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_t2-25.gif "Vea4_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_t[2]")
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
We post headlines to the blog posts in Beyond Search to LinkedIn, “hire me” service. The traffic produced is minimal, and I find it surprising that a 1,000 people or so look at the information that catches our attention. As a dinobaby who is not interested in work, I find LinkedIn amusing. The antics of people posting little videos, pictures of employees smiling, progeny in high school athletic garb, and write ups which say, “I am really wonderful” are fascinating. Every month or so, I receive a message from a life coach. I get a kick out of telling the young person, “I am 78 and I don’t have much life left. What’s to coach?” I never hear from the individual again. What fun is that?
I wonder if the life coaches offer their services to Microsoft LinkedIn? Perhaps the organization could benefit more than I would. What justifies this statement? “LinkedIn Employees Discovered a Mysterious List of around 500 Names Over the Weekend. On Monday, Workers Said Those on the List Were Laid Off” might provide a useful group of prospects. Imagine. A group of professionals working on a job hunting site possibly terminated by Microsoft LinkedIn. That’s the group to write about life coaching and generating leads. What’s up with LinkedIn? Is LinkedIn a proxy for management efforts to reduce costs?
“Turn the ship, sir. You will run aground, leak fuel, and kill the sea bass,” shouts a consultant to the imposing vessel Titanic 3. Thanks, MidJourney, close enough for horse shoes.
Without any conscious effort other LinkedIn-centric write ups caught my eye. Each signals that change is being forced upon a vehicle for aggressive self promotion to make money. Let me highlight these other “reports” and offer a handful of observations. Keep in mind that [a] I am a dinobaby and [b] I see social media as a generally bad idea. See. I told you I was a dinobaby.
The first article I spotted in my newsfeed was “Microsoft Owned LinkedIn Lays Off Nearly 700 Employees — Read the Memo Here.” The big idea is that LinkedIn is not making as much money as it coulda, woulda, shoulda. The fix is to allow people to find their future elsewhere via role reductions. Nice verbiage. Chatty and rational, right, tech bros? Is Microsoft emulating the management brilliance of Elon Musk or the somewhat thick fingered efforts of IBM?
The article states:
LinkedIn is now ramping up hiring in India…
My hunch it is a like a combo at a burger joint: “Some X.com, please. Oh, add some IBM too.”
Also, I circled an item with the banner “20% of LinkedIn’s Recent Layoffs Were Managers.” Individuals offered some interesting comments. These could be accurate or the fabrications of a hallucinating ChatGPT-type service. Who knows? Consider these remarks:
- From Kuchenbecker: I’m at LI and my reporting chain is Sr mgr > Sr Director > VP > Sr vp > CEO. A year ago it was mgr > sr mgr > director > sr Director> vp> svp > ceo. No one in my management chain was impacted but the flattening has been happening organically as folks leave. LI has a distinctive lack of chill right now contrary to the company image, but generally things are just moving faster.
- From Greatpostman: I have a long held belief that engineering managers are mostly a scam, and are actually just overpaid scrum masters. This is from working at some top companies
- From Xorcist: Code is work, and the one thing that signals moving up the social ladder is not having to work.
- From Booleandilemma: My manager does little else besides asking what everyone is working on every day. We could automate her position with a slack bot and get the same results.
The comments suggest a well-crafted bureaucracy. No wonder security buffs find Microsoft interesting. Everyone is busy with auto scheduled meetings and getting Teams to work.
Next, I spotted was “Leaked Microsoft Pay Guidelines Reveal Salary, Hiring Bonus, and Stock Award Ranges by Level.” I underlined this assertion in the article:
In 2022, when the economy was still booming, Microsoft granted an across-the board compensation raise for levels 67 and lower through larger stock grants, in response to growing internal dissatisfaction with compensation compared to competitors, and to stop employees from leaving for better pay, especially to Amazon. As Insider previously reported, earlier this year, as the economy faltered, Microsoft froze base pay raises and cut its budget for bonuses and stock awards.
Does this suggest some management problems, problems money cannot resolve? Other observations:
- Will Microsoft be able to manage its disparate businesses as it grows ever larger?
- Has Microsoft figured out how to scale and achieve economies that benefit its stakeholders?
- Will Microsoft’s cost cutting efforts create other “gaps” in the plumbing of the company; for example, security issues?
I am not sure, but the game giant and AI apps vendor appears to be trying to turn a flotilla, not a single aircraft carrier. The direction? Lower cost talent in India? Will the quality of Microsoft’s products and services suffer? Nope. A certain baseline of excellence exists and moving that mark gets more difficult by the day.
Stephen E Arnold, October 17, 2023
Blue Chip Consultancy Gets Cute and Caught
October 4, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
I was not going to read “PwC Caught Hiding Terms of secret Review.” However, my eye spotted the delectable name “Ziggy Switkowski” and I had to devour the write up. Imagine a blue chip outfit and a blue chip consultant named Ziggy.
The story reports about PwC (once the esteemed Price Waterhouse Coopers firm) and how it conducted a “secret internal investigation” in a “tax affair.” To me, the fuzzy words suggest tax fraud, but I am a dinobaby and a resident of Harrods Creek, Kentucky.
The Ziggy affair warranted this comment by the Klaxon, an Australian online publication:
“There’s only one reason why you’re not releasing your terms of reference,” governance expert Dr Andy Schmulow told The Klaxon last night. “And that’s because you know you’ve set up a sham inquiry”.
Imagine that! A blue chip consulting firm and a professional named Ziggy. What’s not to believe?
The article adds a rhetorical flourish; to wit:
In an interim report called “PwC: A calculated breach of trust” the inquiry found PwC was continuing to obfuscate, with its actions indicating “poor corporate culture” and a lack of “governance and accountability”. “PwC does not appear to understand proper process, nor do they see the need for transparency and accountability,” the report states. “Given the extent of the breach and subsequent cover-up now revealed on the public record, when is PwC going to come clean and begin to do the right thing?”
My hunch is that blue chip consulting firms may have a different view of what’s appropriate and what’s not. Tax irregularities. Definitely not worth the partners’ time. But Ziggy?
Stephen E Arnold, October 4, 2023
Need Free Data? Two Thousand Terabytes Are Available
October 2, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
I read “Censys Reveals Open Directories Share More Than 2,000 TB of Unprotected Data.” What’s an open directory? According to the champion of redactions the term refers to lists of direct links to files. True?
The article reports:
These open directories could leak sensitive data, intellectual property or technical data and let an attacker compromise the entire system.
Why do these “lists” exist? Laziness, lack of staff who know what to do, and forgetting how an intern configured a server years ago?
The article states:
Why don’t search engines prohibit people from seeing those open directories? Censys researchers told TechRepublic that “while this may initially sound like a reasonable approach, it’s a bandage on the underlying issue of open directories being exposed on the internet in the first place.
Are open directories a good thing? I think it depends on one’s point of view. Why are bad actors generally cheerful these days? Attack surfaces are abundant and management floats above such hard-to-grasp details about online systems and services. Hey, what time is lunch?
Stephen E Arnold, October 2, 2023
KPIs: The Perfect Tool for Slacker Managers
September 22, 2023
Many businesses have adopted key performance indicators (KPIs) in an effort to minimize subjectivity in human resource management. Cognitive researcher and Promaton CTO Ágoston Török explores the limitations of this approach in his blog post, “How to Avoid KPI Psychosos in your Organization?”
Török takes a moment to recall the human biases KPIs are meant to avoid: availability bias, recency bias, the halo/horn effects, overconfidence bias, anchoring bias, and the familiar confirmation bias. He writes:
“Enter KPIs as the objective truth. Free of subjectivity, perfect, right? Not so fast. In fact, often our data collection and measurement are also biased by us (e.g. algorithmic bias). And even if that is not the case, unfortunately, KPIs suffer from tunnel vision: they measure what is measurable, while not necessarily all aspects of the situation are. Albert Einstein put it brilliantly: ‘Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.’ This results in perverse motivation in many organizations, where people have to choose between doing their job well (broader reality) or getting promoted for meeting the KPIs (tunnel vision). And that’s exactly the KPI psychosis I described above.”
That does defeat the purpose. Not surprisingly, the solution is to augment KPI software with human judgment.
“KPIs should be used in combination with human intuition to enable optimal decision-making. So not just intuition or data, but a constant back and forth of making (i.e. intuition) and testing (i.e. data) hypotheses. … So you work on reaching your objective and while doing so you constantly check both what your KPI shows and also how much you can rely on it.”
That sounds like a lot of work. Can’t we just offload personnel decisions to AI and be done with it? Not yet, dear executives, not yet.
Cynthia Murrell, September 22, 2023
Kill Off the Dinobabies and Get Younger, Bean Counter-Pleasing Workers. Sound Familiar?
September 21, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
I read “Google, Meta, Amazon Hiring low-Paid H1B Workers after US Layoffs: Report.” Is it accurate? Who knows? In the midst of a writers’ strike in Hollywood, I thought immediately about endless sequels to films like “Batman 3: Deleting Robin” and Halloween 8: The Night of the Dinobaby Purge.”
The write up reports a management method similar to those implemented when the high school science club was told that a school field trip to the morgue was turned down. The school’s boiler suffered a mysterious malfunction and school was dismissed for a day. Heh heh heh.
I noted this passage:
Even as global tech giants are carrying out mass layoffs, several top Silicon Valley companies are reportedly looking to hire lower-paid tech workers from foreign countries. Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Zoom, Salesforce and Palantir have applied for thousands of H1B worker visas this year…
I heard a rumor that IBM used a similar technique. Would Big Blue replace older, highly paid employees with GenX professionals not born in the US? Of course not! The term “dinobabies” was a product of spontaneous innovation, not from a personnel professional located in a suburb of New York City. Happy bean counters indeed. Saving money with good enough work. I love the phrase “minimal viable product” for “minimally viable” work environments.
There are so many ways to allow people to find their futures elsewhere. Shelf stockers are in short supply I hear.
Stephen E Arnold, September 21, 2023
Bankrupting a City: Big Software, Complexity, and Human Shortcomings Does the Trick
September 15, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
I have noticed failures in a number of systems. I have no empirical data, just anecdotal observations. In the last few weeks, I have noticed glitches in a local hospital’s computer systems. There have been some fascinating cruise ship problems. And the airlines are flying the flag for system ineptitudes. I would be remiss if I did not mention news reports about “near misses” at airports. A popular food chain has suffered six recalls in a four or five weeks.
Most of these can be traced to software issues. Others are a hot mess combination of inexperienced staff and fouled up enterprise resource planning workflows. None of the issues were a result of smart software. To correct that oversight, let me mention the propensity of driverless automobiles to mis-identify emergency vehicles or possessing some indifference to side street traffic at major intersections.
“The information technology manager looks at the collapsing data center and asks, “Who is responsible for this issue?” No one answers. Those with any sense have adopted the van life, set up stalls to sell crafts at local art fairs, or accepted another job. Thanks, MidJourney. I guarantee your sliding down the gradient descent is accelerating.
What’s up?
My person view is that some people do not know how complex software works but depend on it despite that cloud of unknowing. Other people just trust the marketing people and buy what seems better, faster, and cheaper than an existing system which requires lots of money to keep chugging along.
Now we have an interesting case example that incorporates a number of management and technical issues. Birmingham, England is now bankrupt. The reason? The cost of a new system sucked up the cash. My hunch is that King Charles or some other kind soul will keep the city solvent. But the idea of city going broke because it could not manage a software project is illustrative of the future in my opinion.
“Largest Local Government Body in Europe Goes Under amid Oracle Disaster” reports:
Birmingham City Council, the largest local authority in Europe, has declared itself in financial distress after troubled Oracle project costs ballooned from £20 million to around £100 million ($125.5 million).
An extra £80 million would make little difference to an Apple, Google, or Microsoft. To a city in the UK, the cost is a bit of a problem.
Several observations:
- Large project management expertise does not deliver functional solutions. How is that air traffic control or IRS system enhancement going?
- Vendors rely on marketing to close deals, and then expect engineers to just make the system work. If something is incomplete or not yet coded, the failure rate may be anticipated, right? Nope, what’s anticipated in a scope change and billing more money.
- Government agencies are not known for smooth, efficient technical capabilities. Agencies are good at statements of work which require many interesting and often impossible features. The procurement attorneys cannot spot these issues, but those folks ride herd on the legal lingo. Result? Slips betwixt cup and lip.
Are the names of the companies involved important? Nope. The same situation exists when any enterprise software vendor wins a contract based on a wild and wooly statement of work, managed by individuals who are not particularly adept at keeping complex technical work on time and on target, and when big outfits let outfits sell via PowerPoints and demonstrations, not engineering realities.
Net net: More of these types of cases will be coming down the pike.
Stephen E Arnold, September 15, 2023
New Wave Management or Is It Leaderment?
September 12, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
Here’s one of my biases, and I am rather proud of it. I like to word “manager.” According to my linguistics professor Lev Soudek, the word “manage” used to mean trickery and deceit. When I was working at a blue chip consulting firm, the word meant using tactics to achieve a goal. I think of management as applied trickery. The people whom one pays will go along with the program, but not 24×7. In a company which expects 60 hours of work a week the minimum for survival of a Spanish inquisition inspired personnel approach, mental effort had to be expended.
I read “I’m a Senior Leader at Amazon and Have Seen Many Bad Managers. Here Are 3 Reasons Why There Are So Few Great Ones.” The intense, clear-eyed young person explains that he has worked at some outfits which are not among my list of the Top 10 high-technology outfits. His résumé includes eBay (a digital yard sale), a game retailer, and the somewhat capricious Amazon (are we a retail outfit, are we a cloud outfit, are we a government services company, are we a data broker, are we a streaming company, etc.).
A modern practitioner of leaderment is having trouble getting the employees to fall in, throw their shoulders back, and mark in step to the cadence of Am-a-zon, Am-a-zon like a squad of French Foreign Legion troops on Bastille Day. Thanks, MidJourney. The illustration did not warrant a red alert, but it is also disappointing.
I assume that these credentials are sufficient to qualify for a management guru. Here are the three reasons managers are less than outstanding.
First, managers just sort of happen. Few people decide to be a manager. Ah, serendipity or just luck.
Second, managers don’t lead. (Huh, the word is “management”, not “leaderment.”)
Third, pressure for results means some managers are “sacrificing employee growth.” (I am not sure what this statement means. If one does not achieve results, then that individual and maybe his direct reports, the staff he leaderments, and his boss will be given an opportunity to find their future elsewhere. Translation for the GenZ reader: You are fired.
Let’s step back and think about these insights. My initial reaction is that a significant re-languaging has taken place in the write up. A good manager does not have to be a leader. In fact, when I was a guest lecturer at the Kansai Institute of Technology, I met a number of respected Japanese managers. I suppose some were leaders, but a number made it clear that results were number one or ichiban.
In my work career, confusing to manage with to lead would create some confusion. I recall when I was working in the US Congress with a retired admiral who was elected to represent an upscale LA district, the way life worked was simple: The retired admiral issued orders. Lesser entities like myself figured out how to execute, tapped appropriate resources, and got the job done. There was not much leadership required of me. I organized; I paid people money; and I hassled everyone until the retired admiral grunted in a happy way. There was no leaderment for me. The retired admiral said, “I want this in two days.” There was not much time for leaderment.
I listened to a podcast called GeekWire. The September 2, 2023, program made it clear that the current big dog at Amazon wants people to work in the office. If not, these folks are going to go away. What makes this interesting is that the GeekWire pundits pointed out that the Big Dog had changed his story, guidelines, and procedures for this work from home and work from office approach multiple times.
Therefore, I am not sure if there is management or leaderment at the world’s largest digital mall. I do know that modern leaderment is not for me. The old-fashioned meaning of manage seems okay to me.
Stephen E Arnold, September 12, 2023
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