IBM Watson and Health: Take Two Aspirin, Do Not Call Me in the Morning
March 8, 2021
IBM Watson was going to put cancer in the cupboard with AS/400 manuals. Then the billion dollar brainiac was going to deal with the Covid Rona thing. Neither worked out.
Ever since Watson blew the competition away on Jeopardy, IBM boasted that their supercomputer would enhance and/or repair industries. The biggest mountain IBM wanted Watson to scale was healthcare and MarketScreener shares: “International Business Machines: IBM’s Retreat From Watson Highlights Broader AI Struggles In Health.”
IBM speculated that AI and machine learning would revolutionize the healthcare industry, so they invested billions in Watson Health. Watson Health was a unit dedicated to developing an AI product that could diagnose and cure cancer. The unit was not profitable and IBM is now selling it.
Google’s DeepMind also invested in healthcare AI programs, but they too lost money and privacy on health data was a big concern.
The biggest roadblock, like all AI endeavors, is the lack of data and insights into the healthcare field:
“The stumbles highlight the challenges of attempting to apply AI to treating complex medical conditions, healthcare experts said. The hurdles include human, financial and technological barriers, they said. Having access to data that represents patient populations broadly has been a challenge, the experts say, as have gaps in knowledge about complex diseases whose outcomes often depend on many factors that may not be fully captured in clinical databases.
Tech companies also sometimes lack deep expertise in how healthcare works, adding to the challenge of implementing AI in patient settings, according to Thomas J. Fuchs, Mount Sinai Health System’s dean of artificial intelligence and human health.”
IBM has not given up on healthcare entirely. Watson Health did have some small successes, but in order to nab a profit IBM needs to sell its excess and concentrate on smaller initiatives.
IBM tried to make sweeping changes by casting a wide net, instead of focusing on smaller steps towards the big picture. Marketing is easier than building systems that live up to the collateral written by MBAs and art history majors it seems.
Whitney Grace, March 8, 2021
IBM Watson: Learn How to Build a Recommendation Engine with Watson NLP
February 17, 2021
I came across this IBM free lesson: “Build a Recommendation Engine with Watson Natural Language Understanding.”
The preliminary set up, according to the write up, takes about an hour. Once that hour has been invested, the IBM Watson Knowledge Studio service will allow you to whip up your own recommendation engine. Plus, with Watson, the system will understand what humans write.
What are the preliminary steps? No big deal. Get an IBM cloud account, then navigate to the IBM Cloud console. Pick a pricing plan. Just choose “free” otherwise the lesson is free, not building the recommendation solution, you silly goose.) Then follow the steps for provisioning a Watson Knowledge Studio instance. Choose “free” again.
Next you have an opportunity to work through six additio0nal steps:
- Define entity types and subtypes
- Create “Relation Types”
- Collect documents that describe your domain language
- Annotate Documents
- Generate a Machine Learning Model
- Deploy model to Natural Language Understanding service.
The system seems to enjoy documents which are no larger than 2,000 words, preferable smaller. And the documents must be in ASCII, PDF, DOC, and HTML. The IBM information says Zip files are supported, but zip files can contain non text objects and long text documents. (That’s why people zip long text files, right?) The student can also upload documents in the UIMA CAS XMI format. If you are not familiar with this file format, you can get oriented by looking at documents like this.)
Once you have worked through steps one through five (obviously without making an error), you will need you Natural Language Understanding API Key which “is located at The Natural Language Understanding API Key and URL can be found by navigating to your Watson Natural Language Understanding instance page and looking in the Credentials section.”
No problem.
But what if the customer support system relies on voice? What if the customer is asked to upload a screenshot or a file containing data displayed when a fault occurs? What if the customer has paid for “premier” support which features a Zoom session? What if the person who wants to learn about Watson recommendation engine for a small trucking company?
Good questions. You may want to set aside some time to work through steps one through five which encapsulate some specialized college courses and hands-on experience with smart software, search, indexing, etc.
Perhaps hiring an IBM partner to set up the system and walk you through its quirks and features is a more practical solution.
On the other hand, check out Amazon’s off the shelf machine learning systems.
Stephen E Arnold, February 17, 2021
IBM: Emphasizing the Big in Big Blue Quantum Computing
February 12, 2021
Did you know a small outfit in China is selling a person quantum computer. Discover Magazine reveals this in “A Desktop Quantum Computer for Just $5,000.” This means quantum computers will be crunching Excel spreadsheets for those with terminal spreadsheet fever.
But one must think big. I read “IBM Promises 100x Faster Quantum Computers through New Software Foundations.” The write up explains that Big Blue has gone big, quantumly speaking, of course:
IBM unveiled on Wednesday improvements to quantum computing software that it expects will increase performance of its complex machines by a factor of 100, a development that builds on Big Blue’s progress in making the advanced computing hardware. In a road map, the computing giant targeted the release of quantum computing applications over the next two years that will tackle challenges such as artificial intelligence and complex financial calculations. And it’s opening up lower level programming access that it expects will lead to a better foundation for those applications.
Imagine how much better Watson will perform with more quantum horsepower at its disposal.
But there’s more. The write up explains in a content marketing manner:
IBM is working on increasing the number of qubits in its quantum computers, from 27 in today’s “Falcon” to 1,121 in its “Condor” systems due in 2023. IBM expects in 2024 to investigate a key quantum computing technology called error correction that could make qubits much more stable and therefore capable, Jay Gambetta, IBM’s quantum computing vice president, said in a video.
And the source of this revelation? IBM, of course. The future is just two years away. Sounds good. Now how about revenue growth, explaining how the Palantir tie up will work, and when Watson will deliver on that promise of a billion in revenue from cognitive computing?
Stephen E Arnold, January 12, 2021
IBM Watsonizes Blockchain: Cash Sinkhole Grows
February 2, 2021
IBM had big plans to regain its position as the champion of the digital world wide mud wrestling competition. We know that mainframes generate revenue. We know that IBM’s cloud is at least in the game. We know that the cognitive computing marketing hoo hah Watson thing has struggled to climb in the ring. Now we know that the IBM blockchain superstar made it in the ring but tripped over a rope and plunged to the mat. Yep, dazed and confused before landing a punch.
If the information in “IBM Blockchain Is a Shell of Its Former Self After Revenue Misses, Job Cuts: Sources” is accurate, that’s the pickle on top of the IBM disaster burger. The write up asserts from unnamed sources of course:
BM has cut its blockchain team down to almost nothing, according to four people familiar with the situation. Job losses at IBM escalated as the company failed to meet its revenue targets for the once-fêted technology by 90% this year, according to one of the sources. “IBM is doing a major reorganization,” said a source at a startup that has been interviewing former IBM blockchain staffers. “There is not really going to be a blockchain team any longer. Most of the blockchain people at IBM have left.”
The write up noted:
In its recent full-year results statement, IBM as a whole reported revenue fell 6% on an annualized basis. Looking back to its 2017 financial statement, IBM called itself the “blockchain leader for business.” All mention of the technology is now absent from the company’s statements.
IBM, steeped in cognitive computing technology and confidence replied:
“IBM maintains a strong team dedicated to blockchain across the company. We have shifted some resources but remain committed to the technology, blockchain ecosystem and services. We see blockchain as a driver for our cloud business.”
Good to know. What’s Watson say?
Stephen E Arnold, February 2, 2021
IBM: Watson, What Is Going On?
January 27, 2021
I want to keep this brief. IBM is a company anchored in the past, and its management is demonstrating that agility, pivoting, buzzwords, and sci-fi technology are not working in the money department. “International Business Machines : IBM Shares Are an Anomaly in a Hot Tech Sector” like hearing Frank Sinatra’s “My Way” in a karaoke bar in Osaka.
Does this sound familiar? It seems as if Market Screener is recycling boilerplate:
The simple answer for IBM’s stock performance? It hasn’t delivered the growth expected of technology companies. Although IBM snapped a 22-quarter streak of falling sales in January 2018, briefly reviving some investors’ hopes for a successful turnaround, it has largely failed to post strong results since then, trailing behind rivals like Amazon and Microsoft in the cloud computing business.
Is it fair to compare IBM with Amazon, Google, or any other digital dervish? No. A more apt comparison should be drawn with other companies anchored in adding machines and mainframes.
If we ask Watson, what do we get?
Answer: A link to a news item about Watson winning jeopardy. Interesting but not what the stakeholders need.
Stephen E Arnold, January 27, 2021
Smart Software: Definitely More Exciting than a COBOL Accounting System
January 26, 2021
I found “A Closer Look at the AI Incident Database of Machine Learning Failures” for the jejune write up contains pointers to some useful resources: Resource which remind one that software mostly functions in ways which confound users.
The article contains an interesting statement from a smart software expert. Here’s the passage I found interesting. The “McGregor” is Sean McGregor, lead technical consultant for the IBM Watson AI XPRIZE, an individual exposed to the exceptional performance of IBM’s really smart software:
McGregor points out that the behavior of traditional software is usually well understood, but modern machine learning systems cannot be completely described or exhaustively tested. Machine learning derives its behavior from its training data, and therefore, its behavior has the capacity to change in unintended ways as the underlying data changes over time. “These factors, combined with deep learning systems capability to enter into the unstructured world we inhabit means malfunctions are more likely, more complicated, and more dangerous,” McGregor says.
No wonder Google seems to be rethinking its approach to in house, full time, Googlers who want to bring “ethics” to an engineering problem. Maybe ethics and smart software go beyond the non digital world of dudes like Immanuel Kant. I would hypothesize that Kant probably could land a job in Google’s Berlin office.
Stephen E Arnold, January 26, 2021
Computing: Things Go Better with Light
January 22, 2021
Electricity is too slow at matrix math for IBM. Now, announces ZDNet, “IBM Is Using Light, Instead of Electricity, to Create Ultra-Fast Computing.” The shift could be especially important to the future of self-driving automobiles, where ultra-fast processing is needed to avoid collisions at high travel speeds. Reporter Daphne Leprince-Ringuet writes:
“Although the device has only been tested at a small scale, the report suggests that as the processor develops, it could achieve one thousand trillion multiply-accumulate (MAC) operations per second and per square-millimeter – according to the scientists, that is two to three orders more than ‘state-of-the-art AI processors’ that rely on electrical signals.”
IBM researchers have been working toward this goal for some time. Last year, the company demonstrated the tech’s potential through in-memory computing with devices that performed computational tasks using light. Now they have created what they call a photonic tensor core they say is particularly suited for deep-learning applications. The article continues:
“The most significant advantage that light-based circuits have over their electronic counterparts is never-before-seen speed. Leveraging optical physics, the technology developed by IBM can run complex operations in parallel in a single core, using different optical wavelengths for each calculation. Combined with in-memory computing, IBM’s scientists achieved ultra-low latency that is yet to be matched by electrical circuits. For applications that require very low latency, therefore, the speed of photonic processing could make a big difference. … With its ability to perform several operations simultaneously, the light-based processor developed by IBM also requires much less compute density.”
That is another consideration for self-driving vehicles—the smaller the hardware the better. But this technology is far from ready for the road. IBM still must evaluate how it can be integrated for end-to-end performance. The potential to trade electricity for light is an interesting development; we are curious to see how this unfolds.
Cynthia Murrell, January 22, 2021
A Vaccine Passport: Digital or Old Fashioned Rubber Stamp?
January 20, 2021
Vaccination papers, commonly a yellow immunization card, are required for entry into many foreign countries. The World Health Organization created the International Certificate of Inoculation and Vaccination (aka ICV, carte jaune, or yellow card) in 1935.
The COVID-19 may require all international travelers to carry a vaccination passport along with their usual paper, except it might be digital. IBM’s Watson is developing these passports says AFAR in the article, “How Vaccine Passports Will Actually Work.”
Currently, a COVID-19 consists of a piece of paper from the CDC with an individual’s personal information, date of first vaccine, who administrated it, and room for the next dose. Since the COVID-19 vaccination record is only a piece of paper it could be lost and it does not help when most paperwork is digital.
IBM is working on a platform called the IBM Digital Health Pass, where pharmacy and healthcare workers can upload vaccination information that the government will verify. It will take time to deploy the IBM platform, but individuals can be proactive by downloading an approved health app and uploading their information. There are problems with rolling out the platform, especially those who do not have access to smartphones:
“When it comes to digital health passes, ‘How do we make sure that we head in that direction in the most transparent way, and in a way that also provides the greatest amount of access that doesn’t shut people out?’ says Michele Goodwin, director for the Center for Biotechnology and Global Health Policy at the University of California in Irvine, School of Law.
She adds,
‘Not everybody has access to sophisticated smartphones. These are very expensive phones. Or if they have a phone, they may not have the data plan. What you don’t want to do is to deny individuals things that are looking to become a societal privilege or right simply based on their socioeconomic status.’”
Fierce Biotech explains that IBM is working with Salesforce to rollout its IBM Digital Health Pass: “IBM Links With Salesforce To Offer Digital COVID-19 Vaccine Passports.”
The IBM Digital Health Pass is part of the IBM Watson Health endeavor. By teaming with Salesforce, IBM plans to help organizations expand the availability of COVID-19 vaccination verifications.
Salesforce will assist organizations by adding IBM’s technology to its Work.com platform:
“ ‘Our partnership with IBM will give organizations a single platform designed to provide safe and continuous operations, deepen trust with customers and employees and do everything possible to support their health and wellbeing,’ said Bill Patterson, executive vice president and general manager of customer relationship management applications at Salesforce.”
IBM is a technology company, so their resources are limited when it comes to distributing a health platform internationally. By combining its technology with Salesforce’s CRM platform, IBM can focus on perfecting its health system will Salesforce work on the distribution.
IBM and health. A match made in a synthetic biology lab located near Armonk.
Lucky Armonk.
Whitney Grace, January 20, 2021
KPMG: Ignoring the HR Block Case Example or That Will Not Happen at the Exceptional KPMG
January 19, 2021
Here’s a fact of life at allegedly blue chip consulting and service firms. Miss those billability goal, and you are invited to find your future elsewhere.
I read “KPMG’s Marisa Ferrara Boston embraces Auditing Disruption with Watson.” My immediate reaction was id the capable, dutiful Marisa Ferrara Boston overlook this article in Beyond Search: “Watson and Block: Tax Preparation and Watson.” Probably. Business analysis from rural Kentucky is not on the KPMG list of suggested readings.
The point of my write up was in early 2017:
The idea is that H&R Block paid cash money to IBM to integrate Watson into the H&R Block proprietary tax preparation system.
The problem, based on information available to me, the Block Watson service added complexity to the tax workflow.
Oh, oh.
Here’s what KPMG has in mind:
KPMG has partnered with IBM to integrate Watson Discovery and Watson Machine Learning into the auditing workflow. KPMG uses Watson as a backbone to a question-answering pipeline for auditors and risk analysts, enabling KPMG audit professionals to better review, classify, and search across documents to extract important attribute values.
Interesting idea. Replace billable humans with super smart, reliable, fast IBM software.
What could go wrong?
If the Block IBM deal went nowhere, the resistance came from the tax professionals the system was supposed to help. Block and IBM parted company.
At KPMG, the litmus test will be billability. Unless the smart software generates more billable hours (regardless of how the bean counters fiddle the calculations), the KPMG IBM deal is likely to be found wanting. Nothing creates more waves in a blue chip professional services firm than a partner responsible for a number who misses his/her bonus. Nothing.
This quote from the IBM blog misses the point for a big time consulting firm. IBM writes:
“I feel really lucky to be able to be in a position where I’m still in the fight to be able to help push these things along,” says Marisa. But deployment is only half the battle. When it comes to maintaining innovation in automation over time, “it’s never over,” she says. “These AIs are living. They need to be nurtured in an appropriate environment. They’re not just something that you create and consider the job to be done. If so, you have failed, and probably in a very expensive way.”
Notice that employee revenue is not mentioned. Cost control is not mentioned. The partner bonuses are not mentioned. The ire of an unhappy KPMG client who is “surprised” is not mentioned. What about the managing partner who learns that a baby Enron or Autonomy has been birthed by the energetic Watson? Exciting? Yep. Very.
Perhaps some KPMG wizards who will find themselves working at HR Block will be able to ask their new colleagues, “What did you think of that IBM Watson integration?”
Stephen E Arnold, January 19, 2021
Tape for Back Ups: What about Restore and a Few Other Trivial Questions?
December 31, 2020
I read “Fujifilm Created a Magnetic Tape That Can Restore 580 Terabytes.” Amazing. Remarkable. Incredible. Tape!
The write up reports:
The breakthrough, developed jointly with IBM Research, uses a new magnetic particle called Strontium Ferrite (SrFe), commonly used as a raw material for making motor magnets. Fujifilm has been investigating Strontium Ferrite as a possible successor to Barium Ferrite (BaFe), which is the leading material today.
Yep, strontium. Definitely a favorite among some laboring at LANL, Oak Ridge, and Argonne as well as among home experimenters with highly chemical reactive substances. Plus, there’s IBM in the mix. Yep, the Watson folk. Greetings, Blue folk.
I learned:
To put 580 terabytes in perspective, it’s roughly the equivalent of 120,000 DVDs or 786,977 CDs — IBM notes that stacking that many CDs would result in a tower 3,097 feet (944m) tall, or taller than Burj Kalifa, the world’s tallest building. All that data can now fit in a tape cartridge in the palm of your hand.
And how long will this wonder persist as usable media? 30 years.
I do have a couple of questions:
- Write speed?
- Read speed?
- Actual restore speed for 500 terabytes (there is overhead on these puppies, right?)?
- Mechanism to locate the specific blocks required for the restore?
- In use error rate?
- Storage environment required? (Faraday room, cavern in Kansas, in a pile on a metal rack in the junk closet?)
- What’s the cost in fully loaded dollars for the software, device, and staff time for write and restore?
- What’s the tensile strength of the medium in 29 years?
Ah, but there are no answers in the write up.
There you go. Let’s ask Watson or someone who has reported to a client, “Your tape backups are unreadable.” Ever heard that before? I sure have.
Stephen E Arnold, December 31, 2020
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