Telegram Notes: About That Money. Nyet.
January 8, 2026
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
I spotted a news item that surprised me. The GOAT (the greatest of all time in Russian technology) encountered a small banking problem. The automatic teller machine would not work. “$500M in Telegram Bonds Frozen in Russia Due to Sanctions – FT” reports or recycles a Financial Times’ news article that allegedly asserted as true:
Around $500 million worth of bonds issued by the Telegram messaging app in Russia have been frozen due to Western sanctions … The freeze highlights Telegram’s continued exposure to Russian capital despite efforts by its billionaire founder Pavel Durov to distance himself from Moscow…. Telegram has issued a series of bond offerings in recent years including a $1.7 billion issuance in May 2025.
Dead money machines? What’s going on? Thanks, Qwen. Good enough.
Why does the GOAT need some cash? The Moscow Times says:
Telegram said revenue in the first half of 2025 rose more than 65% year-on-year to $870 million. The company nevertheless posted a net loss of $222 million, compared with a net profit of $334 million in the same period a year earlier
That doesn’t answer the question, does it? How about this statement:
the loss was driven by a write-down of Telegram’s holdings of the Toncoin cryptocurrency, whose price fell amid a broader downturn in the crypto market in 2025.
Let’s think about this. The TONcoin is not controlled by Pavel Durov. He gave the TON blockchain technology, the TONcoin, and some other bits and pieces to the TON Foundation. Why? After a spat with the US Securities & Exchange Commission, Mr. Durov and his “core” team cooked up the idea of a foundation special purpose vehicle. The cause of the shortfall is simple. The TONcoin upon which some interesting financial “plays” are dependent has lost some of its value. The alleged currency of the future free of the constraints of the cursed US dollar has fallen in value. I think the TONcoin is down about 65 percent since January 5, 2025 if the data from TradingView.com are semi accurate.
This “drop” has troubled the usually halcyon waters of the pond from which the GOAT sips; for example:
- The TON Strategy Company is trying to shake free from two SEC notes about a failure to hold required shareholder votes. A NASDAQ listed outfit run by Manny Stotz has to follow those pesky US rule
- The AlphaTON Capital outfit is trying to figure out how to recover after a bit of fancy dancing related to an alleged tie up with the Anduril outfit. In contrast to AlphaTON, Anduril is doing quite well and said, “Nope, no AlphaTON deal.” In order to look like a great NASDAQ listed company, AlphaTON bid farewell to an interesting person who was the money manager for AlphaTON. Well, so much for Andrei Grachev of DWF MaaS, DWF Labs, and a former board member of the Russian RACIB outfit.
- And obviously the problem of more revenue and a notable $222 million loss.
Mr. Durov may mash the buttons on Russia’s National Settlement Depository (NSD). Those actions may not be subject to the GOAT’s considerable power. What’s the fix? Perhaps Mr. Durov will have to step in and use his own cash to cover the pitfalls on Telegram’s push to become the global financial system? Do goats bleat?
Stephen E Arnold, January 8, 2026
AlphaTON: Tactical Brilliance or Bumbling?
January 6, 2026
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
A few days ago, I published on my “Telegram Notes” page a story about some fancy dancing. I thought the insights into strategic thinking and tactical moves might be of interest to those who follow Beyond Search and its information on social media like the estimable LinkedIn.
What caught my attention? Telegram — again. Pavel Durov is headed for a trial in France. He’s facing about a baker’s dozens of charges related to admirable activities like ignoring legitimate requests for information about terrorism, a little bit of kiddie video excitement, and the more mundane allegations related to financial fancy dancing.
This means that although other nation states could send a diplomatic note to the French government, that is unlikely. Thus, some casual conversations may be held, but the wheels of French justice which rolled like tumbrils during the French revolution, are grinding forward. The outcome is difficult to predict. If you have been in France, you know how some expected things become “quelle surprise.” And fast.
Not surprisingly, the activity related to Telegram has been stepped up. Nikolai Durov has apparently come out of his cocoon to allow Pavel, his GOAT and greatest of all time brother, to say:
It happened. Our decentralized confidential compute network, Cocoon, is live. The first AI requests from users are now being processed by Cocoon with 100% confidentiality. GPU owners are already earning TON.
Then a number of interesting things happened.
First, there was joy of Telegram true believers who wondered by the GOAT and his two Ph.D. toting brother were acting like Tim Apple and its non-AI initiative. Telegram was doing AI as a distributed service. Yep, AI mining along with other types of digital mining. Instead of buying scare and expensive hardware, Nikolai ideated a method that would use other people’s GPUs. Do some work for Telegram and get paid in TONcoin. Yep, that the currency completely and totally under the control of the independent TON Foundation. Yep, completely separate.
Second, there was some executive shuffling at the TON Foundation. You know that this outfit is totally, 100 percent separate from Telegram and now has responsibility for the so called TON blockchain technology and the marketing of all things Telegram. Manual (Manny) Stotz, a German financial wizard, left his job at the TON Foundation and became the president of TON Strategy Company. I think he convinced a person with a very low profile named Veronika Kapustina to help manage the new public company. TON Strategy has a tie up with Manny’s own Kingsway Capital and possibly with Manny’s other outfit Koenigsweg Holding. (Did you know that Koenigsweg means Kingsway in German?)
Is it possible for a pop up company to offer open market visitors an deal on hot TONcoins? I don’t know. I do know that Qwen did a good enough job on this illustration, however.
Third, was the beep beep Road Runner acceleration of AlphaTON Capital. Like TON Strategy Company (which rose like a phoenix from the smoking shell of VERB Technology), AlphaTON popped into existence about four months ago. Like TON Strategy, it sported a NASDAQ listing under the ticker symbol ATON. Some Russians might remember the famous or infamous ATON Bank affair. (I wonder if someone was genuinely clueless about the ATON ticker symbol’s metaphorical association or just having a bit of fun on the clueless, tightly leashed “senior managers” of AlphaTON. I thought I heard a hooray when AlphaTON was linked to the very interesting high frequency trading outfit DWF MaaS. No CFO or controller was needed when the company appeared like a pop up store in the Mall of America. A person with an interesting background would be in charge of AlphaTON’s money. For those eager to input one type of currency and trade it for another, the DWF MaaS outfit and its compatriots in Switzerland could do the job.
But what happened to these beep beep Road Runner moves?
Answer: TONcoin value went down. TON Strategy Company share price went down. AlphaTON share price cratered. On January 2, one AlphaTON share was about US$0.77. That is just a 85 percent drop since the pop distributed mining company came into existence by morphing from a cancer fighting company to an AI mining outfit.
In the midst of these financial flameouts, Manny had to do some fast dancing for the US SEC because he did not do the required shareholder vote process before making some money moves. Then, a couple of weeks later, the skilled senior managers of AlphaTON announced a deal with the high flying private company Anduril. But there was one small problem. Anduril came out and said, “AlphaTON is not telling the truth.” The blue chip thinkers at AlphaTON had to issue a statement to the effect that it was acting like an AI system and hallucinating. There was no deal with Anduril.
Then the big news was AlphaTON’s cutting ties with DWF MaaS, distancing itself from the innovative owner of DWF Maas, and paying DWF MaaS an alleged US$15 million to just go away pronto.
Where is AlphaTON now?
That’s a good question. I think 2026 will allow AlphaTON to demonstrate its business acumen. Personally I hope that information becomes available to answer these questions:
- Was AlphaTON’s capitalization at US$420.69 million a joke like ATON as the ticker symbol?
- What’s the linkage among RSV Capital (Canada) and sources of money in Russia and Telegram’s TONcoin (which is totally under the control of the completely separate TON Foundation)?
- What does Enzo Villani know about mining artificial intelligence?
- What does Britany Kaiser know about mining artificial intelligence?
- What does Logan Ryan Golema, an egamer, know about building out AI data centers?
- How does AlphaTON plan to link financial services, cancer fighting, and AI mining into a profitable business in 2026?
If you want to read the post in Telegram Notes, click here.
Stephen E Arnold, January 6, 2026
Telegram Notes: Is ATON an Inside Joke?
January 2, 2026
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Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
On New Year’s Day, I continued to sift through my handwritten notecards. (I am a dinobaby. No Obsidian for me!) I came across a couple of items that I thought were funny or at the least “inside jokes” related to the beep beep Road Runner spin of a company involved (allegedly) in pharma research into a distributed AI mining company. Yeah, I am not sure what that means either. I did notice a link to an outfit with a confusing deal to manage the company named AlphaTON, captained by a former Cambridge Analytica professional, and featuring a semi-famous person in Moscow named Yuri Mitin of the Red Shark Ventures outfit.
Several financial wizards, eager to tap into US financial markets, toss around names for the NASDAQ’s official ticker symbol. Thanks, Venice.ai. Good enough.
What’s the joke? I am not sure you will laugh outload, but I know of a couple people who would slap their knee and chortle.
Joke 1: The ticker symbol for the beep beep outfit is ATON. That is the “name” of a famous or infamous Russian bank. Naming a company listed on the US NASDAQ as ATON is a bit like using the letters CIA or NSA on a company listed on the MOEX.
Joke 2: The name “Red Shark” suggests an intelligence operation; for example, there was an Israeli start up called “Sixgill.” That’s a shark reference too. Quite a knee slapper because the “old” Red Shark Ventures is now RSV Capital, and it has a semi luminary in Moscow’s financial world as its chief business development officer. Yuri Mitin. Do you have tears in your eyes yet?
Joke 3: AlphaTON’s SEC S-3/F-3 shelf registration for this dollar amount: US$420.69 million. If you are into the cannabis world, “420” means either partaking of cannabis at 4:20 pm each afternoon or holding a protest on April 20th each year. Don’t feel bad. I did not get this either, but Perplexity as able to explain this in great detail. And the “69” is supposed to be a signal to crypto bros that this stock is going to be a roller coaster. I think “69” has another slang reference, but I don’t recall that. You may, however.
Joke 4: The name Alpha may be a favorite of the financial wizard Enzo Villani involved with AlphaTON, but one of my long time clients (a former CIA operations officers) told me that “A” was an easy way to refer to those entertaining people in the Russian Spetsgruppa "A", the FSB’s elite counter-terrorism unit.
Whether these are making you laugh, I don’t know. I wonder if these references are a coincidence. Probably not. AlphaTON, supporting the Telegram TON Foundation’s AI initiative, is just a coincidence. I would hazard a guess that a fellow name Andrei Grachev understands the attempts at humor. The wet blanket is the stock price and the potential for some turbulence.
Financial wizards engaged in crypto centric activities do have a sense of humor — until they lose money. Those two empty chairs in the cartoon suggest people have left the meeting.
PS. The Telegram Notes information service is beginning to take shape. If you want more information about our Telegram, TON Foundation, TON Strategy Company, and AlphaTON, just write kentmaxwell at proton dot me.
Stephen E Arnold, January 2, 2025
Yep, Making the AI Hype Real Will Be Expensive. Hundreds of Billions, Probably More, Says Microsoft
December 26, 2025
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
I really don’t want to write another “if you think it, it will become real.” But here goes. I read “Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman Says It Will Cost Hundreds of Billions to Keep Up with Frontier AI in the Next Decade.”
What’s the pitch? The write up says:
Artificial general intelligence, or AGI, refers to AI systems that can match human intelligence across most tasks. Superintelligence goes a step further — systems that surpass human abilities.
So what’s the cost? Allegedly Mr. AI at Microsoft (aka Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman) asserts:
it’s going to cost “hundreds of billions of dollars” to compete at the frontier of AI over the next five to 10 years….Not to mention the prices that we’re paying for individual researchers or members of technical staff.
Microsoft seems to have some “we must win” DNA. The company appears to be willing to ignore users requests for less of that Copilot goodness.
The vice president of AI finance seems shocked by an AI wizard’s request for additional funds… right now. Thanks, Qwen. Good enough.
Several observations:
- The assumption is that more money will produce results. When? Who knows?
- The mental orientation is that outfits like Microsoft are smart enough to convert dreams into reality. That is a certain type of confidence. A failure is a stepping stone, a learning experience. No big deal.
- The hype has triggered some non-AI consequences. The lack of entry level jobs that AI will do is likely to derail careers. Remember the baloney that online learning was better than sitting in a classroom. Real world engagement is work. Short circuiting that work in my opinion is a problem not easily corrected.
Let’s step back. What’s Microsoft doing? First, the company caught Google by surprise in 2022. Now Google is allegedly as good or better than OpenAI’s technology. Microsoft, therefore, is the follower instead of the pace setter. The result is mild concern with a chance of fear tomorrow. the company’s “leadership” is not stabilizing the company, its messages, and its technology offerings. Wobble wobble. Not good.
Second, Microsoft has demonstrated its “certain blindness” to two corporate activities. The first is the amount of money Microsoft has spent and apparently will continue to spend. With inputs from the financially adept Mr. Suleyman, the bean counters don’t have a change. Sure, Microsoft can back out of some data center deals and it can turn some knobs and dials to keep the company’s finances sparkling in the sun… for a while. How long? Who knows?
Third, even Microsoft fan boys are criticizing the idea of shifting from software that a users uses for a purpose to an intelligent operating system that users its users. My hunch is that this bulldozing of user requests, preferences, and needs may be what some folks call a “moment.” Google’s Waymo killed a cat in the Mission District. Microsoft may be running over its customers. Is this risky? Who knows.
Fourth, can Microsoft deliver AI that is not like AI from other services; namely, the open source solutions that are available and the customer-facing apps built on Qwen, for example. AI is a utility and not without errors. Some reports suggest that smart software is wrong two thirds of the time. It doesn’t matter what the “real” percentage is. People now associate smart software with mistakes, not a rock solid tool like a digital tire pressure gauge.
Net net: Mr. Suleyman will have an opportunity to deliver. For how long? Who knows?
Stephen E Arnold, December 26, 2025
Forget AI AI AI. Think Enron Enron Enron
December 25, 2025
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
Happy holidays AI industry. The Financial Times seems to be suggesting that lignite coal may be in your imitative socks hanging on your mantels. In the nightmare before Christmas edition of the orange newspaper, the story “Tech Groups Shift $120bn of AI Data Centre Debt Off Balance Sheets” says:
Creative financing helps insulate Big Tech while binding Wall Street to a future boom or bust.
What’s this mean? The short answer in my opinion is, “Enron Enron Enron.” That was the online oil information short cake that was inedible, choking a big accounting firm and lots of normal employees and investors. Some died. Houston and Wall Street had a problem. for years after the event, the smell of burning credibility could be detected by those with sensitive noses.
Thanks, Venice.ai. Good enough.
The FT, however, is not into Enron Enron Enron. The FT is into AI AI AI.
The write up says:
Financial institutions including Pimco, BlackRock, Apollo, Blue Owl Capital and US banks such as JPMorgan have supplied at least $120bn in debt and equity for these tech groups’ computing infrastructure, according to a Financial Times analysis.
So what? The FT says:
That money is channeled through special purpose holding companies known as SPVs. The rush of financings, which do not show up on the tech companies’ balance sheets, may be obscuring the risks that these groups are running — and who will be on the hook if AI demand disappoints. SPV structures also increase the danger that financial stress for AI operators in the future could cascade across Wall Street in unpredictable ways.
These sentence struck me as a little to limp. First, everyone knows what happens if AI works and creates the Big Rock Candy Mountain the tech bros will own. That’s okay. Lots of money. No worries. Second, the more likely outcome is [a] rain pours over the sweet treat and it melts gradually or [b] a huge thundercloud perches over the fragile peak and it goes away in a short time. One day a mountain and the next a sticky mess.
How is this possible? The FT states:
Data center construction has become largely reliant on deep-pocketed private credit markets, a rapidly inflating $1.7tn industry that has itself prompted concerns due to steep rises in asset valuations, illiquidity and concentration of borrowers.
The FT does not mention the fact that there may be insufficient power, water, and people to pull off the data center boom. But that’s okay, the FT wants to make clear that “risky lending” seems to be the go-approach for some of the hopefuls in the AI AI AI hoped-for boom.
What can make the use of financial engineering to do Enron Enron Enron maneuvers more tricky? How about this play:
A number of tech bankers said they had even seen securitization deals on AI debt in recent months, where lenders pool loans and sell slices of them, known as asset-backed securities, to investors. Two bankers estimated these deals currently numbered in the single-digit billions of dollars. These deals spread the risk of the data center loans to a much wider pool of investors, including asset managers and pension funds.
When playing Enron Enron Enron games, the ideas for “special purpose vehicles” or SPVs reduce financial risk. Just create a separate legal entity with its own balance sheet. If the SPV burns up (salute to Enron), the parent company’s assets are in theory protected. Enron’s money people cooked up some chrome trim for their SPVs; for example, just fund the SPVs with Enron stock. What could go wrong? Nothing unless, the stock tanked. It did. Bingo, another big flame out. Great idea as long as the rain clouds did not park over Big Rock Candy Mountain. But the rains came and stayed.
The result is that the use of these financial fancy dance moves suggests that some AI AI AI outfits are learning the steps to the Enron Enron Enron boogie.
Several observations:
- The “think it and it will work” folks in the AI AI AI business have some doubters among their troops
- The push back about AI leads to wild and crazy policies like those promulgated by Einstein’s old school. See ETH’s AI Policies. These indicate no one is exactly what to do with AI.
- Companies like Microsoft are experiencing what might be called post-AI AI AI digital Covid. If the disease spreads, trouble looms until herd immunity kicks in. Time costs money. Sick AI AI AI could be fatal.
Net net: The FT has sent an interesting holiday greeting to the AI AI AI financial engineers. 2026 will be exciting and perhaps a bit stressful for some in my opinion. AI AI AI.
Stephen E Arnold, December 25, 2025
Telegram Notes: Manny, Snoop, and Millions in Minutes
December 24, 2025
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
In the mass of information my team and I gathered for my new study “The Telegram Labyrinth,” we saw several references to what may be an interesting intersection of Manuel (Manny) Stotz, a hookah company in the Middle East, Snoop Dog (the musical luminary), and Telegram.
At some point in Mr. Stotz’ financial career, he acquired an interest in a company doing business as Advanced Inhalation Rituals or AIR. This firm owned or had an interest in a hookah manufacturer doing business as Al Fakher. By chance, Mr. Stotz interacted with Mr. Snoop Dog. As the two professionals discussed modern business, Mr. Stotz suggested that Mr. Snoop Dog check out Telegram.
Thanks, Venice.ai. I needed smoke coming out of the passenger side window, but smoke existing through the roof is about right for smart software.
Telegram allowed Messenger users to create non fungible tokens. Mr. Snoop Dog thought this was a very interesting idea. In July 2025, Mr. Snoop Dogg
I found the anecdotal Manny Stotz information in social media and crypto centric online services suggestive but not particularly convincing and rarely verifiable.
One assertion did catch my attention. The Snoop Dogg NFT allegedly generated US$12 million in 30 minutes. Is the number in “Snoop Dogg Rakes in $12M in 30 Minutes with Telegram NFT Drop” on the money? I have zero clue. I don’t even know if the release of the NFT or drop took place. Let’s go to the write up:
Snoop Dogg is back in the web3 spotlight, this time partnering with Telegram to launch the messaging app’s first celebrity digital collectibles drop. According to Telegram CEO Pavel Durov, the launch generated $12 million in sales, with nearly 1 million items sold out in just 30 minutes. While the items aren’t minted yet, users purchased the collectibles internally on Telegram, with minting on The Open Network (TON) scheduled to go live later this month [July 2025].
Is this important? It depends on one’s point of view. As an 81 year old dinobaby, I find the comments online about this alleged NFT for a popular musician not too surprising. I have several other dinobaby observations to offer, of course:
- Mr. Stotz allegedly owns shares in a company (possibly more than 50 percent or more of the outfit) that does business in the UAE and other countries where hookahs are popular. That’s AIR.
- Mr. Stotz worked for a short time a a senior manager at the TON Foundation. That’s an organization allegedly 100 percent separate from Telegram. That’s the totally independent, Swiss registered TON Foundation, not to be confused with the other TON Foundation in Abu Dhabi. (I wonder why there are two Telegram linked foundations. Maybe someone will look into that? Perhaps these are legal conventions or something akin to Trojan horses? This dinobaby does not know.
- By happenstance, Mr. Snoop Dogg learned about Telegram NFTs and at the same time Mr. Stotz was immersed in activities related to the Foundation and its new NASDAQ listed property TON Strategy Company, the NFT spun up and then moved forward allegedly.
- Does a regulatory entity monitor and levy tax on the sale of NFTs within Telegram? I mean Mr. Snoop Dogg resides in America. Mr. Stotz resides allegedly in London. The TON Foundation which “runs” the TON blockchain is in United Arab Emirates, and Mr. Pavel Durov is an AirBnB type of entrepreneur — this question of paying taxes is probably above my pay grade which is US$0.00.
One simple question I have is, “Does Mr. Snoop Dogg have an Al Faker hookah?
This is an example of one semi interesting activity involving Mr. Stotz, his companies (Koenigsweg Holdings Ltd Holdings Ltd and its limited liability unit Kingsway Capital) and the Telegram / TON Foundation interactions cross borders, business types, and cultural boundaries. Crypto seems to be a magnetic agent.
As Mr. Snoop Dogg sang in 1994:
“With so much drama in the LBC, it’s kinda hard being Snoop D-O-double-G.” (“Gin and Juice, 1994)
For those familiar with NFT but not LBC, the “LBC” refers to Long Beach, California. There is much mystery surrounding many words and actions in Telegram-related activities.
PS. My team and I are starting an information service called “Telegram Notes.” We have a url, some of the items will be posted to LinkedIn and the cyber crime groups which allowed me to join. We are not sure what other outlets will accept these Telegram-related essays. It’s kinda hard being a double DINO-B-A-BEEE.
Stephen E Arnold, December 24, 2025
All I Want for Xmas Is Crypto: Outstanding Idea GenZ
December 24, 2025
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
I wish I knew an actual GenZ person. I would love to ask, “What do you want for Christmas?” Because I am a dinobaby, I expect an answer like cash, a sweater, a new laptop, or a job. Nope, wrong.
According to the most authoritative source of real “news” to which I have access, the answer is crypto. “45% of Gen Z Wants This Present for Christmas—Here’s What Belongs on Your Gift List” explains:
[A] Visa survey found that 45% of Gen Z respondents in the United States would be excited to receive cryptocurrency as their holiday gift. (That’s way more than Americans overall, which was only 28%.)
Two geezers try to figure out what their grandchildren want for Xmas. Thanks, Qwen. Good enough.
Why? Here’s the answer from Jonathan Rose, CEO of BlockTrust IRA, a cryptocurrency-based individual retirement account (IRA) platform:
“Gen Z had a global pandemic and watched inflation eat away at the power of the dollar by around 20%. Younger people instinctively know that $100 today will buy them significantly less next Christmas. Asking for an asset that has a fixed supply, such as bitcoin, is not considered gambling to them—it is a logical decision…. We say that bull markets make you money, but bear markets get you rich. Gen Z wants to accumulate an asset that they believe will define the future of finance, at an affordable price. A crypto gift is a clear bet that the current slump is temporary while the digital economy is permanent.”
I like that line “a logical decision.”
The world of crypto is an interesting one.
The Readers Digest explains to a dinobaby how to obtain crypto. Here’s the explanation for a dinobaby like me:
One easy way to gift crypto is by using a major exchange or crypto-friendly trading app like Robinhood, Kraken or Crypto.com. Kraken’s app, for example, works almost like Venmo for digital assets. You buy a cryptocurrency—such as bitcoin—and send it to someone using a simple pay link. The recipient gets a text message, taps the link, verifies their account, and the crypto appears in their wallet. It’s a straightforward option for beginners.
What will those GenZ folks do with their funds? Gig tripping. No, I don’t know what that means.
Several observations:
- I liked getting practical gifts, and I like giving practical gifts. Crypto is not practical. It is, in my opinion, idea for money laundering, not buying sweaters.
- GenZ does have an uncertain future. Not only are those basic skill scores not making someone like me eager to spend time with “units” from this cohort, I am not sure I know how to speak to a GenZ entity. Is that why so many of these young people prefer talking to chatbots? Do dinobabies make the uncomfortable?
- When the Readers Digest explains how to buy crypto, the good old days of a homey anecdote and a summary of an article from a magazine with a reading level above the sixth grade are officially over.
Net net: I am glad I am old.
Stephen E Arnold, December 24, 2025
Telegram News: AlphaTON, About Face
December 22, 2025
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
Starting in January 2026, my team and I will be writing about Telegram’s Cocoon, the firm’s artificial intelligence push. Unlike the “borrow, buy, hype, and promise” approach of some US firms, Telegram is going a different direction. For Telegram, it is early days for smart software. The impact will be that posts in Beyond Search will decrease beginning Christmas week. The new Telegram News posts will be on a different url or service. Our preliminary tests show that a different approach won’t make much difference to the Arnold IT team. Frankly I am not sure how people will find the new service. I will post the links on Beyond Search, but with the exceptional indexing available from Bing, Google, et al, I have zero clue if these services will find our Telegram Notes.
Why am I making this shift?
Here’s one example. With a bit of fancy footwork, a publicly traded company popped into existence a couple of months ago. Telegram itself does not appear to have any connection to this outfit. However, the TON Foundation’s former president set up an outfit called the TON Strategy Co., which is listed on the US NASDAQ. Then following a similar playbook, AlphaTON popped up to provide those who believe in TONcoin a way to invest in a financial firm anchored to TONcoin. Yeah, I know that having these two public companies semi-linked to Telegram’s TON Foundation is interesting.
But even more fascinating is the news story about AlphaTON using some financial fancy dancing to link itself to Andruil. This is one of the companies familiar to those who keep track of certain Silicon Valley outfits generating revenue from Department of War contracts.
What’s the news?
The deal is off. According to “AlphaTON Capital Corp Issues Clarification on Anduril Industries Investment Program.” The word clarification is not one I would have chosen. The deal has vaporized. The write up says:
It has now come to the Company’s attention that the Anduril Industries common stock underlying the economic exposure that was contractually offered to our Company is subject to transfer restrictions and that Anduril will not consent to any such transfer. Due to these material limitations and risk on ownership and transferability, AlphaTON has made the decision to cancel the Anduril tokenized investment program and will not be proceeding with the transaction. The Company remains committed to strategic investments and the tokenization of desirable assets that provide clear ownership rights and align with shareholder value creation objectives.
I interpret this passage to mean, “Fire, Aim, Ready Maybe.”
With the stock of AlphaTON Capital as of December 18, 2025, at about $0.70 at 11 30 am US Eastern, this fancy dancing may end this set with a snappy rendition of Mozart’s Requiem.
That’s why Telegram Notes will be an interesting organization to follow. We think Pavel Durov’s trial in France, the two or maybe one surviving public company, two “foundations” linked to Telegram, and the new Cocoon AI play are going to be more interesting. If Mr. Durov goes to jail, the public company plays fail, and the Cocoon thing dies before it becomes a digital butterfly, I may flow more stories to Beyond Search.
Stay tuned.
Stephen E Arnold, December 22, 2025
First, Virtual AI Compute and Now a Virtual Supercomputation Complex
December 19, 2025
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
Do you remember the good old days at AT&T? No Judge Green. No Baby Bells. Just the Ma Bell. Devices were boxes or plastic gizmos. Western Electric paid people to throw handsets out of a multi story building to make sure the stuff was tough. That was the old Ma Bell. Today one has virtual switches, virtual exchanges, and virtual systems. Software has replaced quite a bit of the fungible.
A few days ago, Pavel Durov rolled out his Cocoon. This is a virtual AI complex or VAIC. Skip that build out of data centers. Telegram is using software to provide an AI compute service to anyone with a mobile device. I learned today (December 6, 2025) that Stephen Wolfram has rolled out “instant supercompute.”
When those business plans don’t work out, the buggy whip boys decide to rent out their factory and machines. Too bad about those new fangled horseless carriages. Will the AI data center business work out? Stephen Wolfram and Pavel Durov seem to think that excess capacity is a business opportunity. Thanks, Venice.ai. Good enough.
A Mathematica user wants to run a computation at scale. According to “Instant Supercompute: Launching Wolfram Compute Services”:
Well, today we’ve released an extremely streamlined way to do that. Just wrap the scaled up computation in RemoteBatchSubmit and off it’ll go to our new Wolfram Compute Services system. Then—in a minute, an hour, a day, or whatever—it’ll let you know it’s finished, and you can get its results. For decades I’ve often needed to do big, crunchy calculations (usually for science). With large volumes of data, millions of cases, rampant computational irreducibility, etc. I probably have more compute lying around my house than most people—these days about 200 cores worth. But many nights I’ll leave all of that compute running, all night—and I still want much more. Well, as of today, there’s an easy solution—for everyone: just seamlessly send your computation off to Wolfram Compute Services to be done, at basically any scale.
And the payoff to those using Mathematica for big jobs:
One of the great strengths of Wolfram Compute Services is that it makes it easy to use large-scale parallelism. You want to run your computation in parallel on hundreds of cores? Well, just use Wolfram Compute Services!
One major point in the announcement is:
Wolfram Compute Services is going to be very useful to many people. But actually it’s just part of a much larger constellation of capabilities aimed at broadening the ways Wolfram Language can be used…. An important direction is the forthcoming Wolfram HPCKit—for organizations with their own large-scale compute facilities to set up their own back ends to RemoteBatchSubmit, etc. RemoteBatchSubmit is built in a very general way, that allows different “batch computation providers” to be plugged in.
Does this suggest that Supercompute is walking down the same innovation path as Pavel and Nikolai Durov? I seem some similarities, but there are important differences. Telegram’s reputation is enhanced with some features of considerable value to a certain demographic. Wolfram Computer Services is closely associated with heavy duty math. Pavel Durov awaits trial in France on more than a dozen charges of untoward online activities. Stephen Wolfram collects awards and gives enthusiastic if often incomprehensible talks on esoteric subjects.
But the technology path is similar in my opinion. Both of these organizations want to use available compute resources; they are not too keen on buying GPUs, building data centers, and spending time in meetings about real estate.
The cost of running a job on the Supercompute system depends on a number of factors. A user buys “credits” and pays for a job with those. No specific pricing details are available to me at this time: 0800 US Eastern on December 6, 2025.
Net net: Two very intelligent people — Stephen Wolfram and Pavel Durov — seem to think that the folks with giant data centers will want to earn some money. Messrs. Wolfram and Durov are resellers of excess computing capacity. Will Amazon, Google, Microsoft, et al be signing up if the AI demand does not meet the somewhat robust expectations of big AI tech companies?
Stephen E Arnold, December 19, 2025
AI and Management: Look for Lists and Save Time
December 18, 2025
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
How does a company figure out whom to terminate? [a] Ask around. [b] Consult “objective” performance reviews. [c] Examine a sales professionals booked deal? [d] Look for a petition signed by employees unhappy with company policies? The answer is at the end of this short post.
A human resources professional has figured out which employees are at the top of the reduction in force task. Thanks Venice.ai. How many graphic artists did you annoy today?
I read “More Than 1,000 Amazon Employees Sign Open Letter Warning the Company’s AI Will Do Staggering Damage to Democracy, Our Jobs, and the Earth .”* The write up states:
The letter was published last week with signatures from over 1,000 unnamed Amazon employees, from Whole Foods cashiers to IT support technicians. It’s a fraction of Amazon’s workforce, which amounts to about 1.53 million, according to the company’s third-quarter earnings release. In it, employees claim the company is “casting aside its climate goals to build AI,” forcing them to use the tech while working toward cutting its workforce in favor of AI investments, and helping to build “a more militarized surveillance state with fewer protections for ordinary people.”
Okay, grousing employees. Signatures. Amazon AI. Hmm. I wonder if some of that old time cross correlation will highlight these individuals and their “close” connections in the company. Who are the managers of these individuals? Are the signers and their close connections linked by other factors; for example a manager? What if a manager has a disproportionate number of grousers? These are made up questions in a purely hypothetical scenario. But they crossed my mind
Do you think someone in Amazon leadership might think along similar lines?
The write up says:
Amazon announced in October it would cut around 14,000 corporate jobs, about 4% of its 350,000-person corporate workforce, as part of a broader AI-driven restructuring. Total corporate cuts could reach up to 30,000 jobs, which would be the company’s single biggest reduction ever, Reuters reported a day prior to Amazon’s announcement.
My reaction was, “Just 1,000 employees signed the grousing letter?” The rule of thumb in a company with pretty good in-person customer support had a truism, “One complaint means 100 people are annoyed just too lazy to call us.” I wonder if this rule of thumb would apply to an estimable firm like Amazon. It only took me 30 minutes to get a refund for the prone to burn or explode mobile phone battery. Pretty swift, but not exactly the type of customer services that company at which I worked responded.
The write up concludes with a quote from a person in carpetland at Amazon:
“What we need to remember is that the world is changing quickly. This generation of AI is the most transformative technology we’ve seen since the Internet, and it’s enabling companies to innovate much faster than ever before,” Beth Galetti, Amazon’s senior vice president of people and experience, wrote in the memo.
I like the royal “we” or the parental “we.” I don’t think it is the in the trenches we, but that is my personal opinion. I like the emphasis on faster and innovation. That move fast and break things is just an outstanding approach to dealing with complex problems.
Ah, Amazon, why does my Kindle iPad app no longer work when I don’t have an Internet connection? You are definitely innovating.
And the correct answer to the multiple choice test? [d] Names on a list. Just sayin’.
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* This is one of those wonky Yahoo news urls. If it doesn’t work, don’t hassle me. Speak with that well managed outfit Yahoo, not someone who is 81 and not well managed.
Stephen E Arnold, December 18, 2025
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