All I Want for Xmas Is Crypto: Outstanding Idea GenZ
December 24, 2025
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
I wish I knew an actual GenZ person. I would love to ask, “What do you want for Christmas?” Because I am a dinobaby, I expect an answer like cash, a sweater, a new laptop, or a job. Nope, wrong.
According to the most authoritative source of real “news” to which I have access, the answer is crypto. “45% of Gen Z Wants This Present for Christmas—Here’s What Belongs on Your Gift List” explains:
[A] Visa survey found that 45% of Gen Z respondents in the United States would be excited to receive cryptocurrency as their holiday gift. (That’s way more than Americans overall, which was only 28%.)
Two geezers try to figure out what their grandchildren want for Xmas. Thanks, Qwen. Good enough.
Why? Here’s the answer from Jonathan Rose, CEO of BlockTrust IRA, a cryptocurrency-based individual retirement account (IRA) platform:
“Gen Z had a global pandemic and watched inflation eat away at the power of the dollar by around 20%. Younger people instinctively know that $100 today will buy them significantly less next Christmas. Asking for an asset that has a fixed supply, such as bitcoin, is not considered gambling to them—it is a logical decision…. We say that bull markets make you money, but bear markets get you rich. Gen Z wants to accumulate an asset that they believe will define the future of finance, at an affordable price. A crypto gift is a clear bet that the current slump is temporary while the digital economy is permanent.”
I like that line “a logical decision.”
The world of crypto is an interesting one.
The Readers Digest explains to a dinobaby how to obtain crypto. Here’s the explanation for a dinobaby like me:
One easy way to gift crypto is by using a major exchange or crypto-friendly trading app like Robinhood, Kraken or Crypto.com. Kraken’s app, for example, works almost like Venmo for digital assets. You buy a cryptocurrency—such as bitcoin—and send it to someone using a simple pay link. The recipient gets a text message, taps the link, verifies their account, and the crypto appears in their wallet. It’s a straightforward option for beginners.
What will those GenZ folks do with their funds? Gig tripping. No, I don’t know what that means.
Several observations:
- I liked getting practical gifts, and I like giving practical gifts. Crypto is not practical. It is, in my opinion, idea for money laundering, not buying sweaters.
- GenZ does have an uncertain future. Not only are those basic skill scores not making someone like me eager to spend time with “units” from this cohort, I am not sure I know how to speak to a GenZ entity. Is that why so many of these young people prefer talking to chatbots? Do dinobabies make the uncomfortable?
- When the Readers Digest explains how to buy crypto, the good old days of a homey anecdote and a summary of an article from a magazine with a reading level above the sixth grade are officially over.
Net net: I am glad I am old.
Stephen E Arnold, December 24, 2025
Telegram News: AlphaTON, About Face
December 22, 2025
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
Starting in January 2026, my team and I will be writing about Telegram’s Cocoon, the firm’s artificial intelligence push. Unlike the “borrow, buy, hype, and promise” approach of some US firms, Telegram is going a different direction. For Telegram, it is early days for smart software. The impact will be that posts in Beyond Search will decrease beginning Christmas week. The new Telegram News posts will be on a different url or service. Our preliminary tests show that a different approach won’t make much difference to the Arnold IT team. Frankly I am not sure how people will find the new service. I will post the links on Beyond Search, but with the exceptional indexing available from Bing, Google, et al, I have zero clue if these services will find our Telegram Notes.
Why am I making this shift?
Here’s one example. With a bit of fancy footwork, a publicly traded company popped into existence a couple of months ago. Telegram itself does not appear to have any connection to this outfit. However, the TON Foundation’s former president set up an outfit called the TON Strategy Co., which is listed on the US NASDAQ. Then following a similar playbook, AlphaTON popped up to provide those who believe in TONcoin a way to invest in a financial firm anchored to TONcoin. Yeah, I know that having these two public companies semi-linked to Telegram’s TON Foundation is interesting.
But even more fascinating is the news story about AlphaTON using some financial fancy dancing to link itself to Andruil. This is one of the companies familiar to those who keep track of certain Silicon Valley outfits generating revenue from Department of War contracts.
What’s the news?
The deal is off. According to “AlphaTON Capital Corp Issues Clarification on Anduril Industries Investment Program.” The word clarification is not one I would have chosen. The deal has vaporized. The write up says:
It has now come to the Company’s attention that the Anduril Industries common stock underlying the economic exposure that was contractually offered to our Company is subject to transfer restrictions and that Anduril will not consent to any such transfer. Due to these material limitations and risk on ownership and transferability, AlphaTON has made the decision to cancel the Anduril tokenized investment program and will not be proceeding with the transaction. The Company remains committed to strategic investments and the tokenization of desirable assets that provide clear ownership rights and align with shareholder value creation objectives.
I interpret this passage to mean, “Fire, Aim, Ready Maybe.”
With the stock of AlphaTON Capital as of December 18, 2025, at about $0.70 at 11 30 am US Eastern, this fancy dancing may end this set with a snappy rendition of Mozart’s Requiem.
That’s why Telegram Notes will be an interesting organization to follow. We think Pavel Durov’s trial in France, the two or maybe one surviving public company, two “foundations” linked to Telegram, and the new Cocoon AI play are going to be more interesting. If Mr. Durov goes to jail, the public company plays fail, and the Cocoon thing dies before it becomes a digital butterfly, I may flow more stories to Beyond Search.
Stay tuned.
Stephen E Arnold, December 22, 2025
First, Virtual AI Compute and Now a Virtual Supercomputation Complex
December 19, 2025
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
Do you remember the good old days at AT&T? No Judge Green. No Baby Bells. Just the Ma Bell. Devices were boxes or plastic gizmos. Western Electric paid people to throw handsets out of a multi story building to make sure the stuff was tough. That was the old Ma Bell. Today one has virtual switches, virtual exchanges, and virtual systems. Software has replaced quite a bit of the fungible.
A few days ago, Pavel Durov rolled out his Cocoon. This is a virtual AI complex or VAIC. Skip that build out of data centers. Telegram is using software to provide an AI compute service to anyone with a mobile device. I learned today (December 6, 2025) that Stephen Wolfram has rolled out “instant supercompute.”
When those business plans don’t work out, the buggy whip boys decide to rent out their factory and machines. Too bad about those new fangled horseless carriages. Will the AI data center business work out? Stephen Wolfram and Pavel Durov seem to think that excess capacity is a business opportunity. Thanks, Venice.ai. Good enough.
A Mathematica user wants to run a computation at scale. According to “Instant Supercompute: Launching Wolfram Compute Services”:
Well, today we’ve released an extremely streamlined way to do that. Just wrap the scaled up computation in RemoteBatchSubmit and off it’ll go to our new Wolfram Compute Services system. Then—in a minute, an hour, a day, or whatever—it’ll let you know it’s finished, and you can get its results. For decades I’ve often needed to do big, crunchy calculations (usually for science). With large volumes of data, millions of cases, rampant computational irreducibility, etc. I probably have more compute lying around my house than most people—these days about 200 cores worth. But many nights I’ll leave all of that compute running, all night—and I still want much more. Well, as of today, there’s an easy solution—for everyone: just seamlessly send your computation off to Wolfram Compute Services to be done, at basically any scale.
And the payoff to those using Mathematica for big jobs:
One of the great strengths of Wolfram Compute Services is that it makes it easy to use large-scale parallelism. You want to run your computation in parallel on hundreds of cores? Well, just use Wolfram Compute Services!
One major point in the announcement is:
Wolfram Compute Services is going to be very useful to many people. But actually it’s just part of a much larger constellation of capabilities aimed at broadening the ways Wolfram Language can be used…. An important direction is the forthcoming Wolfram HPCKit—for organizations with their own large-scale compute facilities to set up their own back ends to RemoteBatchSubmit, etc. RemoteBatchSubmit is built in a very general way, that allows different “batch computation providers” to be plugged in.
Does this suggest that Supercompute is walking down the same innovation path as Pavel and Nikolai Durov? I seem some similarities, but there are important differences. Telegram’s reputation is enhanced with some features of considerable value to a certain demographic. Wolfram Computer Services is closely associated with heavy duty math. Pavel Durov awaits trial in France on more than a dozen charges of untoward online activities. Stephen Wolfram collects awards and gives enthusiastic if often incomprehensible talks on esoteric subjects.
But the technology path is similar in my opinion. Both of these organizations want to use available compute resources; they are not too keen on buying GPUs, building data centers, and spending time in meetings about real estate.
The cost of running a job on the Supercompute system depends on a number of factors. A user buys “credits” and pays for a job with those. No specific pricing details are available to me at this time: 0800 US Eastern on December 6, 2025.
Net net: Two very intelligent people — Stephen Wolfram and Pavel Durov — seem to think that the folks with giant data centers will want to earn some money. Messrs. Wolfram and Durov are resellers of excess computing capacity. Will Amazon, Google, Microsoft, et al be signing up if the AI demand does not meet the somewhat robust expectations of big AI tech companies?
Stephen E Arnold, December 19, 2025
AI and Management: Look for Lists and Save Time
December 18, 2025
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
How does a company figure out whom to terminate? [a] Ask around. [b] Consult “objective” performance reviews. [c] Examine a sales professionals booked deal? [d] Look for a petition signed by employees unhappy with company policies? The answer is at the end of this short post.
A human resources professional has figured out which employees are at the top of the reduction in force task. Thanks Venice.ai. How many graphic artists did you annoy today?
I read “More Than 1,000 Amazon Employees Sign Open Letter Warning the Company’s AI Will Do Staggering Damage to Democracy, Our Jobs, and the Earth .”* The write up states:
The letter was published last week with signatures from over 1,000 unnamed Amazon employees, from Whole Foods cashiers to IT support technicians. It’s a fraction of Amazon’s workforce, which amounts to about 1.53 million, according to the company’s third-quarter earnings release. In it, employees claim the company is “casting aside its climate goals to build AI,” forcing them to use the tech while working toward cutting its workforce in favor of AI investments, and helping to build “a more militarized surveillance state with fewer protections for ordinary people.”
Okay, grousing employees. Signatures. Amazon AI. Hmm. I wonder if some of that old time cross correlation will highlight these individuals and their “close” connections in the company. Who are the managers of these individuals? Are the signers and their close connections linked by other factors; for example a manager? What if a manager has a disproportionate number of grousers? These are made up questions in a purely hypothetical scenario. But they crossed my mind
Do you think someone in Amazon leadership might think along similar lines?
The write up says:
Amazon announced in October it would cut around 14,000 corporate jobs, about 4% of its 350,000-person corporate workforce, as part of a broader AI-driven restructuring. Total corporate cuts could reach up to 30,000 jobs, which would be the company’s single biggest reduction ever, Reuters reported a day prior to Amazon’s announcement.
My reaction was, “Just 1,000 employees signed the grousing letter?” The rule of thumb in a company with pretty good in-person customer support had a truism, “One complaint means 100 people are annoyed just too lazy to call us.” I wonder if this rule of thumb would apply to an estimable firm like Amazon. It only took me 30 minutes to get a refund for the prone to burn or explode mobile phone battery. Pretty swift, but not exactly the type of customer services that company at which I worked responded.
The write up concludes with a quote from a person in carpetland at Amazon:
“What we need to remember is that the world is changing quickly. This generation of AI is the most transformative technology we’ve seen since the Internet, and it’s enabling companies to innovate much faster than ever before,” Beth Galetti, Amazon’s senior vice president of people and experience, wrote in the memo.
I like the royal “we” or the parental “we.” I don’t think it is the in the trenches we, but that is my personal opinion. I like the emphasis on faster and innovation. That move fast and break things is just an outstanding approach to dealing with complex problems.
Ah, Amazon, why does my Kindle iPad app no longer work when I don’t have an Internet connection? You are definitely innovating.
And the correct answer to the multiple choice test? [d] Names on a list. Just sayin’.
———————
* This is one of those wonky Yahoo news urls. If it doesn’t work, don’t hassle me. Speak with that well managed outfit Yahoo, not someone who is 81 and not well managed.
Stephen E Arnold, December 18, 2025
Meta: An AI Management Issue Maybe?
December 17, 2025
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
I really try not to think about Facebook, Mr. Zuckerberg, his yachts, and Llamas. I mean the large language model, not the creatures I associate with Peru. (I have been there, and I did not encounter any reptilian snakes. Cuy chactado, si. Vibora, no.)
I read in the pay-walled orange newspaper online “Inside Mark Zuckerberg’s Turbulent Bet on AI.” Hmm. Turbulent. I was thinking about synonyms I would have suggested; for example, unjustifiable, really big, wild and crazy, and a couple of others. I am not a real journalist so I will happily accept turbulent. The word means, however, “relating to or denoting flow of a fluid in which the velocity at any point fluctuates irregularly and there is continual mixing rather than a steady or laminar flow pattern” according to the Google’s opaque system. I think the idea is that Meta is operating in a chaotic way. What about “juiced running fast and breaking things”? Yep. Chaos, a modern management method that is supposed to just work.
A young executive with oodles of money hears an older person, probably a blue chip consultant, asking one of those probing questions about a top dog’s management method. Will this top dog listen or just fume and keep doing what worked for more than a decade? Thanks, Qwen. Good enough.
What does the write up present? Please, sign up for the FT and read the original article. I want to highlight two snippets.
The first is:
Investors are also increasingly skittish. Meta’s 2025 capital expenditures are expected to hit at least $70bn, up from $39bn the previous year, and the company has started undertaking complex financial maneuverings to help pay for the cost of new data centers and chips, tapping corporate bond markets and private creditors.
Not RIFed employees, not users, not advertisers, and not government regulators. The FT focuses on investors who are skittish. The point is that when investors get skittish, an already unsettled condition is sufficiently significant to increase anxiety. Investors do not want to be anxious. Has Mr. Zuckerberg mismanaged the investors that help keep his massive investments in to be technology chugging along. First, there was the metaverse. That may arrive in some form, but for Meta I perceive it as a dumpster fire for cash.
Now investors are anxious and the care and feeding of these entities is more important. The fact that the investors are anxious suggests that Mr. Zuckerberg has not managed this important category of professionals in a way that calms them down. I don’t think the FT’s article will do much to alleviate their concern.
The second snippet is:
But the [Meta] model performed worse than those by rivals such as OpenAI and Google on jobs including coding tasks and complex problem solving.
This suggests to me that Mr. Zuckerberg did not manage the process in an optimal way. Some wizards left for greener pastures. Others just groused about management methods. Regardless of the signals one receives about Meta, the message I receive is that management itself is the disruptive factor. Mismanagement is, I think, part of the method at Meta.
Several observations:
- Meta like the other AI outfits with money to toss in the smart software dumpster fire are in the midst of realizing “if we think it, it will become reality” is not working. Meta’s spinning off chunks of flaming money bundles and some staff don’t want to get burned.
- Meta is a technology follower, and it may have been aced by its message and social media competitor Telegram. If Telegram’s approach is workable, Meta may be behind another AI eight ball.
- Mr. Zuckerberg is a wonder of American business. He began as a boy wonder. Now as an adult wonder, the question is, “Why are investors wondering about his current wonder-fulness?”
Net net: Meta faces a management challenge. The AI tech is embedded in that. Some of its competitors lack management finesse, but some of them are plugging along and not yet finding their companies presented in the Financial Times as outfits making “increasingly skittish.” Perhaps in the future, but right now, the laser focus of the Financial Times is on Meta. The company is an easy target in my opinion.
Stephen E Arnold, December 17, 2025
How Not to Get a Holiday Invite: The Engadget Method
December 15, 2025
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
Sam AI-Man may not invite anyone from Engadget to a holiday party. I read “OpenAI’s House of Cards Seems Primed to Collapse.” The “house of cards” phrase gives away the game. Sam AI-Man built a structure that gravity or Google will pull down. How do I know? Check out this subtitle:
In 2025, it fell behind the one company it couldn’t lose ground to: Google.
The Google. The outfit that shifted into Red Alert or whatever the McKinsey playbook said to call an existential crisis klaxon. The Google. Adjudged a monopoly getting down to work other than running and online advertising system. The Google. An expert in reorganizing a somewhat loosely structured organization. The Google: Everyone except the EU and some allegedly defunded YouTube creators absolutely loves. That Google.
Thanks Venice.ai. I appreciate your telling me I cannot output an image with a “young programmer.” Plugging in “30 year old coder” worked. Very helpful. Intelligent too.
The write up points out:
It’s safe to say GPT-5 hasn’t lived up to anyone’s expectations, including OpenAI’s own. The company touted the system as smarter, faster and better than all of its previous models, but after users got their hands on it, they complained of a chatbot that made surprisingly dumb mistakes and didn’t have much of a personality. For many, GPT-5 felt like a downgrade compared to the older, simpler GPT-4o. That’s a position no AI company wants to be in, let alone one that has taken on as much investment as OpenAI.
Did OpenAI suck it up and crank out a better mouse trap? The write up reports:
With novelty and technical prowess no longer on its side though, it’s now on Altman to prove in short order why his company still deserves such unprecedented levels of investment.
Forget the problems a failed OpenAI poses to investors, employees, and users. Sam AI-Man now has an opportunity to become the highest profile technology professional to cause a national and possibly global recession. Short of war mongering countries, Sam AI-Man will stand alone. He may end up in a museum if any remain open when funding evaporate. School kids could read about him in their history books; that is, if kids actually attend school and read. (Well, there’s always the possibility of a YouTube video if creators don’t evaporate like wet sidewalks when the sun shines.)
Engadget will have to find another festive event to attend.
Stephen E Arnold, December 15, 2025
A Job Bright Spot: RAND Explains Its Reality
December 10, 2025
Optimism On AI And Job Market
Remember when banks installed automatic teller machines at their locations? They’re better known by the acronym ATM. ATMs didn’t take away jobs, instead they increased the number of banks, and created more jobs. AI will certainly take away jobs but the technology will also create more. Rand.org investigates how AI is affecting the job market in the article, “AI Is Making Jobs, Not Taking Them.”
What I love about this article is that it says the truth about aI technology: no one knows what will happen with it. We have theories ,explored in science fiction, about what AI will do: from the total collapse of society to humdrum normal societal progress. What Rand’s article says is that the research shows AI adoption is uneven and much slower than Wall Street and Silicon Valley say. Rand conducted some research:
“At RAND, our research on the macroeconomic implications of AI also found that adoption of generative AI into business practices is slow going. By looking at recent census surveys of businesses, we found the level of AI use also varies widely by sector. For large sectors like transportation and warehousing, AI adoption hovered just above 2 percent. For finance and insurance, it was roughly 10 percent. Even in information technology—perhaps the most likely spot for generative AI to leave its mark—only 25 percent of businesses were using generative AI to produce goods and services.”
Most of the fear related to AI stems from automation of job tasks. Here are some statistics from OpenAI:
“In a widely referenced study, OpenAI estimated that 80 percent of the workforce has at least 10 percent of their tasks exposed to LLM-driven automation, and 19 percent of workers could have at least 50 percent of their tasks exposed. But jobs are more than individual tasks. They are a string of tasks assembled in a specific way. They involve emotional intelligence. Crude calculations of labor market exposure to AI have seemingly failed to account for the nuance of what jobs actually are, leading to an overstated risk of mass unemployment.”
AI is a wondrous technology, but it’s still infantile and stupid. Humans will adapt and continue to have jobs.
Whitney Grace, December 10, 2025
Google Presents an Innovative Way to Say, “Generate Revenue”
December 9, 2025
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
One of my contacts sent me a link to an interesting document. Its title is “A Pragmatic Vision for Interpretability.” I am not sure about the provenance of the write up, but it strikes me as an output from legal, corporate, and wizards. First impression: Very lengthy. I estimate that it requires about 11,000 words to say, “Generate revenue.” My second impression: A weird blend of consulting speak and nervousness.
A group of Googlers involved in advanced smart software ideation get a phone call clarifying they have to hit revenue targets. No one looks too happy. The esteemed leader is on the conference room wall. He provides a North Star to the wandering wizards. Thanks, Venice.ai. Good enough, just like so much AI system output these days.
The write up is too long to meander through its numerous sections, arguments, and arm waving. I want to highlight three facets of the write up and leave it up to you to print this puppy out, read it on a delayed flight, and consider how different this document is from the no output approach Google used when it was absolutely dead solid confident that its search-ad business strategy would rule the world forever. Well, forever seems to have arrived for Googzilla. Hence, be pragmatic. This, in my experience, is McKinsey speak for hit your financial targets or hit the road.
First, consider this selected set of jargon:
Comparative advantage (maybe keep up with the other guys?)
Load-bearing beliefs
Mech Interp” / “mechanistic interpretability” (as opposed to “classic” interp)
Method minimalism
North Star (is it the person on the wall in the cartoon or just revenue?)
Proxy task
SAE (maybe sparse autoencoders?)
Steering against evaluation awareness (maybe avoiding real world feedback?)
Suppression of eval-awareness (maybe real-world feedback?)
Time-box for advanced research
The document tries to hard to avoid saying, “Focus on stuff that makes money.” I think that, however, is what the word choice is trying to present in very fancy, quasi-baloney jingoism.
Second, take a look at the three sets of fingerprints in what strikes me as a committee-written document.
- Researchers want to just follow their ideas about smart software just as we have done at Google for many years
- Lawyers and art history majors who want to cover their tailfeathers when Gemini goes off the rails
- Google leadership who want money or at the very least research that leads to products.
I can see a group meeting virtually, in person, and in the trenches of a collaborative Google Doc until this masterpiece of management weirdness is given the green light for release. Google has become artful in make work, wordsmithing, and pretend reconciliation of the battles among the different factions, city states, and empires within Google. One can almost anticipate how the head of ad sales reacts to money pumped into data centers and research groups who speak a language familiar to Klingons.
Third, consider why Google felt compelled to crank out a tortured document to nail on the doors of an AI conference. When I interacted with Google over a number of years, I did not meet anyone reminding me of Martin Luther. Today, if I were to return to Shoreline Drive, I might encounter a number of deep fakes armed with digital hammers and fervid eyes. I think the Google wants to make sure that no more Loons and Waymos become the butt of stand up comedians on late night TV or (heaven forbid, TikTok). The dead cat in the Mission and the dead puppy in what’s called (I think) the Western Addition. (I used to live in Berkeley, and I never paid much attention to the idiosyncratic names slapped on undifferentiable areas of the City by the Bay.)
I think that Google leadership seeks in this document:
- To tell everyone it is focusing on stuff that sort of works. The crazy software that is just like Sundar is not on the to do list
- To remind everyone at the Google that we have to pay for the big, crazy data centers in space, our own nuclear power plants, and the cost of the home brew AI chips. Ads alone are no longer going to be 24×7 money printing machines because of OpenAI
- To try to reduce the tension among the groups, cliques, and digital street gangs in the offices and the virtual spaces in which Googlers cogitate, nap, and use AI to be more efficient.
Net net: Save this document. It may become a historical artefact.
Stephen E Arnold, December 9, 2025
Telegram’s Cocoon AI Hooks Up with AlphaTON
December 5, 2025
[This post is a version of an alert I sent to some of the professionals for whom I have given lectures. It is possible that the entities identified in this short report will alter their messaging and delete their Telegram posts. However, the thrust of this announcement is directionally correct.]
Telegram’s rapid expansion into decentralized artificial intelligence announced a deal with AlphaTON Capital Corp. The Telegram post revealed that AlphaTON would be a flagship infrastructure and financial partner. The announcement was posted to the Cocoon Group within hours of AlphaTON getting clear of U.S. SEC “baby shelf” financial restrictions. AlphaTON promptly launched a $420.69 million securities push. Telegram and AlphaTON either acted in a coincidental way or Pavel Durov moved to make clear his desire to build a smart, Telegram-anchored financial service.
AlphaTON, a Nasdaq microcap formerly known as Portage Biotech rebranded in September 2025. The “new” AlphaTON claims to be deploying Nvidia B200 GPU clusters to support Cocoon, Telegram’s confidential-compute AI network. The company’s pivot from oncology to crypto-finance and AI infrastructure was sudden. Plus AlphaTON’s CEO Brittany Kaiser (best known for Cambridge Analytica) has allegedly interacted with Russian political and business figures during earlier data-operations ventures. If the allegations are accurate, Ms. Kaiser has connections to Russia-linked influence and financial networks. Telegram is viewed by some organizations like Kucoin as a reliable operational platform for certain financial activities.
Telegram has positioned AlphaTON as a partner and developer in the Telegram ecosystem. Firms like Huione Guarantee allegedly used Telegram for financial maneuvers that resulted in criminal charges. Other alleged uses of the Telegram platform have included other illegal activities identified in the more than a dozen criminal charges for which Pavel Durov awaits trial in France. Telegram’s instant promotion of AlphaTON, combined with the firm’s new ability to raise hundreds of millions, points to a coordinated strategy to build an AI-enabled financial services layer using Cocoon’s VAIC or virtual artificial intelligence complex.
The message seems clear. Telegram is not merely launching a distributed AI compute service; it is enabling a low latency, secrecy enshrouded AI-crypto financial construct. Telegram and AlphaTON both see an opportunity to profit from a fusion of distributed AI, cross jurisdictional operation, and a financial pay off from transactions at scale. For me and my research team, the AlphaTON tie-up signals that Telegram’s next frontier may blend decentralized AI, speculative finance, and actors operating far from traditional regulatory guardrails.
In my monograph “Telegram Labyrinth” (available only to law enforcement, US intelligence officers, and cyber attorneys in the US), Telegram requires close monitoring and a new generation of intelware software. Yesterday’s tools were not designed for what Telegram is deploying itself and with its partners. Thank you.
Stephen E Arnold, December 5, 2025, 1034 am US Eastern time
AI Bubble? What Bubble? Bubble?
December 5, 2025
Another dinobaby original. If there is what passes for art, you bet your bippy, that I used smart software. I am a grandpa but not a Grandma Moses.
I read “JP Morgan Report: AI Investment Surge Backed by Fundamentals, No Bubble in Sight.” The “report” angle is interesting. It implies unbiased, objective information compiled and synthesized by informed individuals. The content, however, strikes me as a bit of fancy dancing.
Here’s what strikes me as the main point:
A recent JP Morgan report finds the current rally in artificial intelligence (AI) related investments to be justified and sustainable, with no evidence of a bubble forming at this stage.
Feel better now? I don’t. The report strikes me as bank marketing with a big dose of cooing sounds. You know, cooing like a mother to her month old baby. Does the mother makes sense? Nope. The point is that warm cozy feeling that the cooing imparts. The mother knows she is doing what is necessary to reduce the likelihood of the baby making noises for sustained periods. The baby knows that mom’s heart is thudding along and the comfort speaks volumes.
Financial professionals in Manhattan enjoy the AI revolution. They know there is no bubble. I see bubbles (plural). Thanks, MidJourney. Good enough.
Sorry. The JP Morgan cooing is not working for me.
The write up says, quoting the estimable financial institution:
“The ingredients are certainly in place for a market bubble to form, but for now, at least, we believe the rally in AI-related investments is justified and sustainable. Capex is massive, and adoption is accelerating.”
What about this statement in the cited article?
JP Morgan contrasts the current AI investment environment to previous speculative cycles, noting the absence of cheap speculative capital or financial structures that artificially inflate prices. As AI investment continues, leverage may increase, but current AI spending is being driven by genuine earnings growth rather than assumptions of future returns.
After stating the “no bubble” argument three times, I think I understand.
Several observations:
- JP Morgan needed to make a statement that the AI data center thing, the depreciation issue, the power problem, and the potential for an innovation that derails the current LLM-type of processing are not big deals. These issues play no part in the non-bubble environment.
- The report is a rah rah for AI. Because there is no bubble, organizations should go forward and implement the current versions of smart software despite their proven “feature” of making up answers and failing to handle many routine human-performed tasks.
- The timing is designed to allow high net worth people a moment to reflect upon the wisdom of JP Morgan and consider moving money to the estimable financial institution for shepherding in what others think are effervescent moments.
My view: Consider the problems OpenAI has: [a] A need for something that knocks Googzilla off the sidewalk on Shoreline Drive and [b] more cash. Amazon — ever the consumer’s friend — is involved in making its own programmers use its smart software, not code cranked out by a non-Amazon service. Plus, Amazon is in the building mode, but it has allegedly government money to spend, a luxury some other firms are denied. Oracle is looking less like a world beater in databases and AI and more of a media-type outfit. Perplexity is probably perplexed because there are rumors that it may be struggling. Microsoft is facing some backlash because of its [a] push to make Copilot everyone’s friend and [b] dealing with the flawed updates to its vaunted Windows 11 software. Gee, why is FileManager not working? Let’s ask Copilot. On the other hand, let’s not.
Net net: JP Morgan is marketing too hard, and I am not sure it is resonating with me as unbiased and completely objective. As sales collateral, the report is good. As evidence there is no bubble, nope.
Stephen E Arnold, December 5, 2025
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