Amazon: Device Proliferation and One Interesting Use Case
September 21, 2018
The technology “real news” channels are stuffed with Amazon gizmo news. Interesting stuff if one considers that these devices may snap into the eCommerce company’s policeware subsystems.
Here in Harrod’s Creek, we noted one announcement almost lost in the flood of device announcements. “Skype Calling Coming to Amazon Alexa Devices Later This Year” indicates that the tension between the two companies may be lessening. Years ago Microsoft had database envy generated by the eCommerce giant’s innovations in data management and data wrangling. Then there were the skirmishes over staff and office space.
If the information in the ZDNet “real news” write up is accurate, this statement may be more interesting than using an Alexa gizmo as a telephone:
Alexa users will be able to make outgoing Skype voice and video calls, accept incoming Skype calls and make SkypeOut calls to most phone numbers around the world, according to Microsoft officials. Users will be able to say “Alexa, call Jimmy on Skype,” or to say “Alexa, answer” when a Skype call comes in.
But the “real news” continues with an admission from the author:
I have to admit at this point I am kind of lost as to how Microsoft hopes to differentiate and position Cortana. Granted, Microsoft execs said they want Cortana not to be just about convenience, but about built-in assistance, but Skype is a Microsoft service….
From my vantage point in Harrod’s Creek, the tie up in voice may be more than a test. In fact, the deal may signal another victim of the Amazon strategy. Microsoft may be losing without knowing that it is in a fight.
Stephen E Arnold, September 21, 2018
IBM Lock In Approach Modified and Given New Life
September 20, 2018
I read “Alphabet Backs GitLab’s Quest to Surpass Microsoft’s GitHub.” The write up explains that Microsoft bought GitHub. Google invests in GitLab. Plus:
It’s the latest major deal in the so-called DevOps market. Broadcom Inc. agreed to buy CA Technologies for $19 billion earlier this year; Atlassian Corp. bought OpsGenie Inc. for $295 million; and Salesforce Inc. spent $6.5 billion to purchase MuleSoft Inc.
From my point of view, these are open source oriented deals.
These deals are part of a revitalization of the old school IBM type of vendor lock in. The way that once worked was:
Buy our big iron
Use our software
Use our preferred partners
Or
Good luck getting those mainframe puppies to behave.
Now the trajectory is to embrace open source, support anyone who codes something semi useful, add proprietary bits, and lock in the platform users.
In short, the lock in play is undergoing a renascence.
How about that open source credo? But where’s Amazon? If you want our take on Amazon’s tactics, contact benkent2020 at yahoo dot com and ask about our for fee briefing on this subject.
Stephen E Arnold, September 20, 2018
Amazon: Will Its Brick and Mortar Ambitions Succeed?
September 19, 2018
I read “The CEO of Macy’s Says It’s Harder for an E-commerce Giant to Conquer Offline Retail Than the Other Way Around.” The main idea is that Amazon will fail if it pushes forward with more book stores, more grocery stores, and more traditional retail store fronts. I learned in this allegedly accurate statement by Macy’s CEO, Jeff Gennette:
I think it’s more difficult for an internet star to go into brick and mortar than the other way around.
My research team has been chasing down information about Amazon’s policeware initiative. On that research path, we have noticed one aspect of Amazon’s approach to traditional store fronts; that is, Amazon first decimates traditional businesses and then selectively moves in. The examples which point to the future include Amazon book stores in Denver.
Amazon also is using a “buy and price cut” approach in its grocery business. One of my researchers wondered if the grocery delivery play was a way for Amazon to sucker outfits like Kroger into spending cash for a service which is ultimately a money pit. Time will tell.
A company like Macy’s may find itself in the same boat with JCPenny’s, Sears, and other old style retain businesses. Macy’s, for example, may struggle to match what might be called predatory pricing, bundling, ad hoc discounts on house brands and brand name products, and other sales techniques like “bought with” nudges used by the absolutely happy Amazon work force.
Perhaps Mr. Gennette is correct? His role at the company demands that he remain confident that he can take steps to keep Macy’s a bigly retail force. On the other hand, I wonder if anyone in his family uses Amazon?
Stephen E Arnold, September 19, 2018
Academic Sees Facebook Chasing Amazon
September 17, 2018
I assume the one trillion dollar Amazon poobah and the world’s richest hombre will not friend Facebook. The assumption is that the information in “How Facebook AI May Help to Change the Way We Shop Online in the Future” is accurate. The author is an accounting instructor at Villanova University. We do not have that type of expert in Harrod’s Creek. We do have some fast money guys from the health care outfits down the road, however.
The main point of the write up is that Facebook has some smart software which will change the way people shop. Maybe not in Harrod’s Creek, but certainly in a big city where the economic action is. (Keep in mind that insurance fraud is a core competency of some in the Commonwealth of Kentucky.)
I learned that:
The most powerful algorithm is called FBLearner Flow: Facebook could use its massive data on user preferences to anticipate the products that consumers want before consumers even realize it, and could work with retailers on predictive shipping.
Facebook also has DeepText and DeepFace. The trio of smart software adds up to a potential threat to Amazon.
The dismal performance of some facial recognition and image analysis systems is not a problem for the Facebook wizards. I learned:
DeepFace is used to identify people in photos and suggest that users tag people they know. In reality, DeepFace can recognize any face in any photograph on its own. This facial recognition algorithm is actually 97 percent accurate, incredibly even higher than humans who fall a close second at 96 percent accuracy, and the FBI at 85 percent.
The write up suggests that Facebook’s technology could, maybe, possibly could edge toward mind control.
Whatever.
My thought is that Facebook can snag more ad revenue. I think that Facebook ad gains might come at the expense of the Google. Google, unlike Amazon, seems to be drifting with Loon balloons, employee push back, and electric scooter investments. Amazon’s ads are just fly wheeling up and trying to build Mr. Bezos’ much beloved momentum.
Our research suggests that Amazon is implementing a game plan that once was associated with the pre 2006 Google; that is, a number of large scale plays for core business expansions. These range from policeware to back office financial services to replacing existing retail infrastructure with the Amazon equivalent of old school retail.
Ads, therefore, will be a billion dollar plus business at Amazon. Are those product listings ads or objective product summaries. That’s a question to ponder.
But ads may not become much more than just another Amazon revenue stream.
Facebook has to find revenue. Amazon, thanks to the cleverness of the happy Amazonians, is wallowing in revenue streams. Some employees may be unhappy, but most customers are thrilled for Amazon’s gentle approach to vendor lock in.
Net net: Facebook will do ads. Facebook will do smart software. Facebook will also have to figure out how to dodge the bullets regulators are now stuffing into regulatory weapons to tackle with “we’re sorry, we’ll do better” approach to business.
Stephen E Arnold, September 15, 2018
Microsoft Pushes Forward in Its Effort to Be More Like Amazon
September 14, 2018
Amazon is making progress in the policeware sector. The company has contracts and some strong supporters in the US government and elsewhere. Like Amazon, Microsoft covets the JEDI cloud contract. The deal is an important one because the Department of Defense has been a unit which uses and likes Microsoft’s software.
If Amazon snags the JEDI contract, Amazon may be in a position to chew into Microsoft’s revenue streams flowing from the DoD and maybe other US governmental entities. Microsoft already faces a loss of young users to the Chrome approach to personal computing.
What to do?
One answer seems to be to buy another “make it easy to program” tool for machine learning and other red hot buzzwords.
We learned in “Microsoft Acquires AI startup Lobe to Help People Make Deep Learning Models without Code” that Microsoft aqui-hired more programming tools capabilities. The company Lobe, it seems, offers a partial solution to the Amazon SageMaker software systems.
Perhaps this and other acquisitions will give Microsoft a way to scale Mt. JEDI, but we think that’s a long shot for three reasons:
- Amazon has been preparing for policeware for about a decade; Microsoft is late to the game
- Amazon has a hardware and software platform which creates a policeware ecosystem when combined with the Amazon content streams and archives; Microsoft does not have this “vision” and “reality”
- Amazon’s policeware tactic is part of a larger strategy to become more than a provider of cloud resources and some interesting applications.
What’s the big picture? If you want to discuss a presentation of my Amazon policeware lecture delivered in Prague and Washington, DC in the last three months, let me know by writing benkent2020 at yahoo dot com. If not, well, that’s okay with me and probably Amazon, an outfit which does not emit too many chunks of information about this SageMaker thing.
Stephen E Arnold, September 14, 2018
Blockchain Bridges the Crypto Gap of Legality
September 4, 2018
Cryptocurrency like Bitcoin has long been the Dark Web’s favorite way of doing illegal business transactions. However, the technology that it is built upon is opening up and providing law enforcement with an interesting weapon, as we discovered in a recent CoinPick story, “Use of BitCoin Over Dark Web Has Dropped, but DEA Wants Criminals to Keep Using Cryptocurrencies.”
According to the piece:
“This is where blockchain plays a very important part. Even though Bitcoin does not carry IDs, the transactions being available on a distributive ledger are accessible to the public. The investigators can track the funds and apprehend Individuals related to criminal activity this way. Infante further stated: The blockchain actually gives us a lot of tools to be able to identify people.”
By exploiting the platform’s weaknesses, law enforcement is zeroing in on illegal activity. We expect this to become more and more common thanks to the fact that police are beginning to familiarize themselves with it for run-of-the-mill internal programs as well as high level crimefighting. This gap is being bridged and one of two things will happen: Either cryptocurrency crime will be wiped out, or the bad guys will have to find a new way to stay hidden.
In Stephen E Arnold’s upcoming lecture in Washington, DC, attendees will learn that bad actors need to be aware of a new intelligence service. The provider? Amazon. More details will be shared in a DarkCyber video after Stephen returns.
Patrick Roland, September 4, 2018
Does Google Have an Edge in B2B?
September 3, 2018
Amazon is the undisputed king of eCommerce, but that doesn’t mean they have a corner on every market. When it comes to business-to-business transactions the waters are a little more murky. We learned just how competitive this arena has become from a recent Search Engine Watch story, “B2B Audiences Find Business Content Most Often Through Search.”
According to the story:
“Clutch’s survey of 384 consumers of online business content found that 87% of respondents frequently encounter business content using search engines, slightly more than the 85% who find business content through social media and 75% who encounter content most frequently on company websites.”
The story alludes to the fact that most of this work is done via Google or other B2B engines. This leaves Amazon high and dry, so they have tried to do something about it recently by behaving more like a B2B platform, offering customers invoicing options that allow them to wait 30 days for payment. However, sellers are furious. This, obviously, means people who were normally paid immediately will now have to wait a month and that’s a big change for many. We suspect that Amazon will iron out this wrinkle, but if not, they could get further behind in this realm.
But Amazon does offer search for what many people seek: Products.
Patrick Roland, September 3, 2018
Google: Online to Brick and Mortar Cross Correlation
August 31, 2018
Our research suggests that Amazon may have a slight edge in the cross correlation of user data. Google, whether pulling a me too or simply going its own way, has decided to link online and brick and mortar data.
The effort was revealed in “Google and MasterCard Cut a Secret Ad Deal to Track Retail Sales.” Amazon has access to some data which makes it possible for those with appropriate system access to perform analyses of Amazon customers’ buying behavior.
According to the write up:
For the past year, select Google advertisers have had access to a potent new tool to track whether the ads they ran online led to a sale at a physical store in the U.S. That insight came thanks in part to a stockpile of MasterCard transactions that Google paid for. But most of the two billion MasterCard holders aren’t aware of this behind-the-scenes tracking. That’s because the companies never told the public about the arrangement.
To be fair, I am not sure any of the financial services and broker dealer firms provide much output about the data in their possession, who has access to these data, and what use cases are applicable to these data.
From my vantage point in Harrod’s Creek, Kentucky, Google can find its own use cases for Mastercard data.
One question: Does Mastercard pay Amazon to process its data, or does Amazon pay Mastercard?
Google, if the information in the real news article is accurate, is paying for data.
I will address Amazon’s real time streaming data marketplace in my upcoming lecture in Washington, DC. If the information in the US government document I cite in my talk in correct, Google has to shift into high gear with regard to cross correlation of shopper data.
Stephen E Arnold, August 31, 2018
Alexa Is Still Taking Language Lessons
August 24, 2018
Though Amazon has been aware of the problem for a while, Alexa still responds better to people who sound like those she grew up with than she does to others. It is a problem many of us can relate to, but one the company really needs to solve as it continues to deploy its voice-activated digital assistant worldwide. TheNextWeb cites a recent Washington Post study as it reports, “Alexa Needs Better Training to Understand Non-American Accents.” It is worth noting it is not just foreign accents the software cannot recognize—the device has trouble with many regional dialects within the US, as well.
“The team had more than 100 people from nearly 20 US cities dictate thousands of voice commands to Alexa. From the exercise, it found that Amazon’s Alexa-based voice-activated speaker was 30 percent less likely to comprehend commands issued by people with non-American accents. The Washington Post also reported that people with Spanish as their first language were understood 6 percent less often than people who grew up around California or Washington and spoke English as a first language.Amazon officials also admitted to The Washington Post that grasping non-American accents poses a major challenge both in keeping current Amazon Echo users satisfied, and expanding sales of their devices worldwide. Rachael Tatman, a Kaggle data scientist with expertise in speech recognition, told The Washington Post that this was evidence of bias in the training provided to voice recognition systems.‘These systems are going to work best for white, highly educated, upper-middle-class Americans, probably from the West Coast, because that’s the group that’s had access to the technology from the very beginning,’ she said.”
Yes, the bias we find here is the natural result of working with what you have where you are, and perhaps Amazon can be forgiven for not foreseeing the problem from the beginning. Perhaps. The article grants that the company has been working toward a resolution, and references their efforts to prepare for the Indian market as an example. It seems to be slow going.
Cynthia Murrell, August 24, 2018
Fake Reviews, Not Just Fake News
August 22, 2018
When shopping online, one cannot closely examine a product for oneself, so it is tempting to rely on reviews attached to its description. NPR reports, “Some Amazon Reviews Are Too Good to Be Believed. They’re Paid For.” It is a problem that we’ve been aware of for some time, and reporter Ryan Kailath observes that networks have arisen around paid reviews, doing business through social media. There are even what one might call best practices. We learn:
As Amazon and its algorithms get better at hunting them down, paid reviewers employ their own evasive maneuvers. Travis, the teenage paid reviewer, explained his process. He’s a member of several online channels where Amazon sellers congregate, hawking Ethernet cables, flashlights, protein powder, fanny packs — any number of small items for which they want favorable reviews. If something catches Travis’ attention, he approaches the seller and they negotiate terms. Once he buys the product and leaves a five-star review, the seller will refund his purchase, often adding a few dollars ‘commission’ for his trouble. He says he earns around $200 a month this way. The sellers provide detailed instructions, to avoid being detected by Amazon’s algorithms, Travis says. For example, he says, ‘Order here at the Amazon link. Don’t clip any coupons or promo codes. [Wait 4 to 5 days] after receiving [the item].’ This last instruction is especially important, Travis adds. ‘If you review too soon after receiving it’ll look pretty suspicious.’”
Outside auditors estimate more than half the reviews for certain products are not to be trusted, though Amazon disputes that conclusion. Citing Mozilla Fellow on media, misinformation, and trust Renée DiResta, Kailath notes that investing in these reviews has been paying off for many companies. Many of these firms are Chinese, we’re told, operating through the Chinese site Alibaba. They seek to penetrate US markets by leveraging Amazon’s powerful reach. Ultimately, DiResta warns, the problem could hurt Amazon’s reputation, but the company can only do so much. Meanwhile, she suggests customers turn to third-party review sites, like CNET or Wirecutter, for example. Are these sites objective? Perhaps.
Cynthia Murrell, August 22, 2018
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