Wal-Mart: Responding to the Bezos Brigade
November 15, 2018
It’s retail conflict.
Wal-Mart likes to be on top. Wal-Mart’s sales, however, have fallen due to Amazon and other online retailers, but they will not go down without a fight. Wal-Mart has decided to fight digital sales with a bigger, better digital supply chain super structure. The Motley Fool reports on Wal-Mart’s biggest investment in, “IBM And Microsoft Are Upgrading Wal-Mart’s Digital Supply Chain.”
Wal-Mart has teamed up with Microsoft and IBM to revamp its supply chain. (What no Amazon in the mix?) Azure is the official cloud infrastructure of Wal-Mart with an exclusive five year contract. All of the retailer’s Web sites will now run natively on Azure and taking advantage of Microsoft’s machine learning and data management tools. Azure’s insightful tools will also streamline Wal-Mart’s supply chain, watch energy levels, and control devices.
Wal-Mart allegedly uses IBM’s blockchain technology to monitor product origins and IBM also built an onboard system for suppliers. How does the new supply chain help Wal-Mart:
“The modernization of Wal-Mart’s supply chain with cloud, IoT, and blockchain services could improve the retailer’s operating margin, which has been weighed down by e-commerce and overseas investments, store renovations, and wage hikes in recent years. That digital foundation can also pave the way for Wal-Mart to install more robots in its warehouses and stores, thereby reducing its overall labor costs. A streamlined supply chain would also help Wal-Mart avoid food safety problems, which are becoming increasingly common across supply chains and multiple countries and states.”
The new system will also help the just-folks store regain some of the losses from its China suppliers due to President Trump’s MAGA activities.
The team up between Wal-Mart, IBM, and Microsoft is a joint effort to counter Amazon-their common enemy—The Bezos brigade. Long shot for sure.
Whitney Grace, November 15, 2018
Oracle Takes One on Nose
November 15, 2018
I read “Oracle Loses Protest of Pentagon Cloud Bid Seen Favoring Amazon.” Oracle, like IBM, wanted a big, hefty chunk of the JEDI contract. Who wouldn’t? According to the real news outfit ThomsonReuters:
The GAO decision issued Wednesday [November 14, 2018] deals a blow to Oracle’s push to expand its federal defense contracts, leaving the tech company with fewer options to improve its chances of winning the award. It also frees the Pentagon to pursue the single-source solution it has opted for all along.
Amazon’s decision to plunk a big office in the middle of bucolic Crystal City and environs suggests that Amazon wants to be close to the corridors of unaudited spending.
Here in Harrod’s Creek, we think Amazon gets a deal from Virginia and this modest decision about the sole source award for JEDI.
Perhaps Oracle should buy MarkLogic and embrace the XML thing. In parallel, Oracle could also pump more dough into Endeca or TripleHop?
Stephen E Arnold, November 15, 2018
Oracle: Grousing about Amazon and Wrestling with Revenue Alligators
November 14, 2018
One of my erstwhile fans sent me a link to a video allegedly revealing Larry Ellison’s deep disappointment with Amazon. Yep, Amazon, an online store with a bundle of database systems. You can view the video here.
News is news. But It seems that some time has passed since Oracle rolled out major technology announcements. What’s happened to Endeca by the way? Seeking Alpha’s “The Reason(s) Why Oracle’s Growth Story Is Crumbling” is semi news, and the write up raises the question, “What is happening with Oracle?”
Oracle’s quarterly earnings are down and the company’s growth is shrinking faster than the polar ice caps. Oracle might have made a mistake combining its cloud business together with its on-premise business. This move led to Oracle’s stock worth dropping:
“Several SA contributors have provided their take on those earnings, though, in my view, this piece by Shock Exchange puts it quite succinctly: Oracle’s cloud growth may have peaked. Indeed, Oracle’s Fiscal Q4 2018 cloud revenue of $1.57B was $200M below the Wall Street consensus, while 31% growth paled in comparison to SAP’s (SAP) 40% and Microsoft’s (MSFT) 53% for the same segment. For perspective, Oracle’s cloud revenue growth was 66% just a year ago.”
Despite the poor returns this year, Oracle stock is only a little off from its highest point, so the company is surfing along. Perhaps Amazon is a rallying point for the Oracle faithful?
Whitney Grace, November 14, 2018
DarkCyber for November 13, 2018, Now Available: Amazon Part Three, Simplifying Intelligence Analysis
November 13, 2018
DarkCyber for November 13, 2018, is now available at www.arnoldit.com/wordpress and on Vimeo at https://vimeo.com/300178710. Amazon Policeware, Part 3. DarkCyber explains how Amazon has solved most of the problems associated with machine learning centric intelligence analysis and sense making systems.
Amazon’s approach to policeware pivots on ease of use and ready to use data.
Instead of programming a system and then undertaking expensive set up tasks, Amazon’s approach is the equivalent of heating a meal in a microwave. The time and convenience changes the landscape for advanced content processing and analytics.
With pre-curated data sets, templates, and familiar Amazon interfaces—law enforcement, military, and intelligence professionals can move from task to output in a day from weeks to months with traditional vendors’ systems. Stephen E Arnold, author of CyberOSINT: Next Generation Information Access, said: “The benefit of the Amazon approach is low cost and quicker implementation. Instead of reinventing the wheel for each case or mission, the Amazon approach is repeatable,” which slashes training, configuring, and tuning work associated with policeware systems.”
Decades ago, IBM used mainframes and their proprietary hardware and software to create a barrier to change for government agencies using the systems. Amazon’s approach is to provide a platform which makes use of open source software to allow the US government to make necessary changes to software.
Amazon also offers value added functionality ranging from hardware like the DeepLens smart surveillance devices to patented analytics for real time cross correlation of data. Government agencies using these proprietary components will find themselves dependent on Amazon despite the support for open source software.
Existing vendors have business models built on time and materials billing for each use of their systems. Amazon has changed the game to emphasize quick and easy deployment at a lower cost for greater flexibility and performance.
Watch for the final segment of this four part series. The video will be released on November 20, 2018
Amazonia: Chopping Digital Trees, November 12, 2018
November 12, 2018
After a few days wandering in the Peruvian mountains, I had a moment of either insight or oxygen deprivation. Amazon can yield Amazonia. No, not jungle insects. Digital information which provide some insight or shape shifting to the company which seems positioned to suck Google’s online revenue like a frisky mosquito.
Thus, we have the first installment of Amazonia:
Alexa Listens and Records
ITEM ONE: Everyone’s favorite surveillance device is in the news. According to a report from WMUR tv:
A judge has ordered Amazon to turn over recordings that might have been captured by an Echo smart speaker in the Farmington house where two women were stabbed to death in January 2017.
The write up points out:
“I think most people probably don’t even realize that Alexa is taking account of what’s going on in your house, in addition to responding to your demands and commands,” said Albert Scherr, a professor at the University of New Hampshire School of Law.
Don’t have an Alexa device? Keep in mind that Amazon’s Alexa virtual assistant now available on Windows 10 PCs as a standalone app. More info is here.
Alexa, are you connected to Sagemaker and DeepLens? Unfamiliar references, gentle reader? Worth tracking down our four part Amazon policeware series. Start here.
Oracle, What Database Will Amazon Use?
ITEM TWO: Amazon Eases Out the Troublesome Oracle
“Keep Talkin’ Larry: Amazon Is Close to Tossing Oracle Software” reveals that Amazon is about ready to undergo its final chemotherapy session. Most traces of the Oracle disease have now been eliminated. Sure, there are lingering side effects like Oracle PR creating inflammation in Amazon, but the end is in sight.
I learned from the real news, real accurate Bloomberg:
An executive with Amazon’s cloud-computing unit hit back at Oracle Executive Chairman Larry Ellison, who ridiculed the internet giant as recently as last month for relying on Oracle databases to track transactions and store information, even though Amazon sells competing software, including Redshift, Aurora and DynamoDB. Amazon’s effort to end its use of Oracle’s products has made new progress, Andy Jassy, the chief executive officer of Amazon Web Services, tweeted Friday. “In latest episode of ‘uh huh, keep talkin’ Larry,’ Amazon’s Consumer business turned off its Oracle data warehouse Nov. 1 and moved to Redshift,” Jassy wrote. By the end of 2018, Amazon will stop using 88 percent of its Oracle databases, including 97 percent of its mission-critical databases, he added.
Time’s are changing for the once dominant database giant.
Amazon: Free PR on a National Scale
ITEM 3: The location of a big Amazon office complex may be known. Surprise, Amazon’s giant PR play called HQ2, the erstwhile competition among cities for a second headquarters, may be over. Where is the online giant and policeware vendor heading? The Washington, DC, area. We learned in “Amazon and Microsoft Are Fighting for a $10 Billion Pentagon Contract — and HQ2 in Virginia Could Be Jeff Bezos’ Boss Move”:
“Let’s just put it this way. I don’t think the timing of Amazon moving its headquarters near D.C. is coincidental,” Daniel Ives, Managing Director of Equity Research at Wedbush Securities, told Business Insider.
Yep, coincidence. But can Amazon win JEDI? Microsoft is trying to prevent the juicy plum from ending up in a Whole Foods shopping basket. But Amazon does have that other government cloud contract, and it seems to deliver what In-Q-Tel could not. Plus, the bitter harvest of the Distributed Common Ground project still lingers in some mess halls.
Stephen E Arnold, November 12, 2018
Amazon Rekognition: Great but…
November 9, 2018
I have been following the Amazon response to employee demands to cut off the US government. Put that facial recognition technology on “ice.” The issue is an intriguing one; for example, Rekognition plugs into DeepLens. DeepLens connects with Sagemaker. The construct allows some interesting policeware functions. Ah, you didn’t know that? Some info is available if you view the October 30 and November 6, 2018, DarkCyber. Want more info? Write benkent2020 at yahoo dot com.
How realistic is 99 percent accuracy? Pretty realistic when one has one image and a bounded data set against which to compare a single image of of adequate resolution and sharpness.
What caught my attention was the “real” news in “Amazon Told Employees It Would Continue to Sell Facial Recognition Software to Law Enforcement.” I am less concerned about the sales to the US government. I was drawn to these verbal perception shifters:
- under fire. [Amazon is taking flak from its employees who don’t want Amazon technology used by LE and similar services.]
- track human beings [The assumption is tracking is bad until the bad actor tracked is trying to kidnap your child, then tracking is wonderful. This is the worse type of situational reasoning.]
- send them back into potentially dangerous environments overseas. [Are Central and South America overseas, gentle reader?]
These are hot buttons.
But I circled in pink this phrase:
Rekognition is research proving the system is deeply flawed, both in terms of accuracy and regarding inherent racial bias.
Well, what does one make of the statement that Rekognition is powerful but has fatal flaws?
Want proof that Rekognition is something more closely associated with Big Lots than Amazon Prime? The write up states:
The American Civil Liberties Union tested Rekognition over the summer and found that the system falsely identified 28 members of Congress from a database of 25,000 mug shots. (Amazon pushed back against the ACLU’s findings in its study, with Matt Wood, its general manager of deep learning and AI, saying in a blog post back in July that the data from its test with the Rekognition API was generated with an 80 percent confidence rate, far below the 99 percent confidence rate it recommends for law enforcement matches.)
Yeah, 99 percent confidence. Think about that. Pretty reasonable, right? Unfortunately 99 percent is like believing in the tooth fairy, just in terms of a US government spec or Statement of Work. Reality for the vast majority of policeware systems is in the 75 to 85 percent range. Pretty good in my book because these are achievable accuracy percentages. The 99 percent stuff is window dressing and will be for years to come.
Also, Amazon, the Verge points out, is not going to let folks tinker with the Rekognition system to determine how accurate it really is. I learned:
The company has also declined to participate in a comprehensive study of algorithmic bias run by the National Institute of Standards and Technology that seeks to identify when racial and gender bias may be influencing a facial recognition algorithm’s error rate.
Yep, how about those TREC accuracy reports?
My take on this write up is that Amazon is now in the sites of the “real” journalists.
Perhaps the Verge would like Amazon to pull out of the JEDI procurement?
Great idea for some folks.
Perhaps the Verge will dig into the other components of Rekognition and then plot the improvements in accuracy when certain types of data sets are used in the analysis.
Facial recognition is not the whole cloth. Rekognition is one technology thread which needs a context that moves beyond charged language and accuracy rates which are in line with those of other advanced systems.
Amazon’s strength is not facial recognition. The company has assembled a policeware construct. That’s news.
Stephen E Arnold, November 9, 2018
Microsoft: Is the Master of Windows 10 Updates Really Beating Amazon in the Cloud?
November 7, 2018
How about that October 2018 Windows update? Does that give you confidence in Microsoft’s technical acumen? What? You are telling me that it is apples and oranges. Okay. Everyone is entitled to an opinion.
After reading a former Oracle executive’s analysis of Microsoft and Amazon cloud revenue, I suppose one could make that argument. I am not sure I buy the Forbes argument in “#1 Microsoft Beats Amazon In 12-Month Cloud Revenue, $26.7 Billion To $23.4 Billion; IBM Third.” The write up makes clear that the analyst is an award winning PR type at SAP and then a “communications officer” at Oracle before finding his true calling at Evans Strategic Communications LLC.
Is Microsoft #1?
From my point of view in lovely Harrod’s Creek, Kentucky, there are several items of information omitted from the Forbes’ analysis; for example:
How does Microsoft calculate its cloud revenue? Does the number include enforced cloud services?
What part of Microsoft’s cloud revenue is generated by accounting methods such as reallocating revenue and thinking really hard about attributing certain revenue to the cloud line items?
Using these accounting methods, how has Microsoft’s cloud revenue tracked over the last 12 quarters?
Analyses require more than accepting the rolled figure. But that’s in rural Kentucky, the rules may be different for PR experts in a real technology hotbed.
Now Amazon is no Mr. Clean when it comes to reporting its financial data. For years, AWS revenue was expressed as weird stuff like the number of things a complex network of computers does to complete work. Now Amazon generally reveals some numbers, and I assume these can be tweaked by figuring in some of the Amazon ecommerce magic into the cloud.
The larger question for me is:
Why is a former Oracle guy writing a pro Microsoft and pro IBM story about the cloud race among three firms?
The write up included this bit of “let’s not talk about the October update” offered up by Microsoft’s big dog:
CEO Satya Nadella offered this perspective on the centerpiece of the Microsoft cloud: “Azure is the only hyperscale cloud that extends to the edge across identity, data, application platform and security and management. We introduced 100 new Azure capabilities this quarter alone, focused on both existing workloads like security and new workloads like IoT and Edge AI.”
Yep, I believe this. Every. Word.
Perhaps nailing down the inclusions in the gross cloud revenue numbers would be a useful first step? Would it be helpful to learn why an Oracle PR pro is dissing Amazon?
The capitalist tool’s presentation of this analysis might have caused Malcolm Forbes to crash his motorcycle on the way to brunch in Manhattan on Sunday morning.
Quite an “analysis.”
Stephen E. Arnold, November 7, 2018
Amazon: Global Takeover to Leverage the Cloud
November 6, 2018
From bookstores to grocery stores to even video stores, we have gotten used to the idea that Amazon is impossible to stop once it begins in a new market. However, some folks re worried about a market that Amazon has been involved with for a while. We learned more from a recent Tech Crunch story: “Common Clause Stops Open-Source Abuse.”
According to the story:
“Amazon takes Redis (the most loved database in StackOverflow’s developer survey), gives very little back, and runs it as a service, re-branded as AWS Elasticache. Many other popular open-source projects including, Elasticsearch, Kafka, Postgres, MySQL, Docker, Hadoop, Spark and more, have similarly been taken and offered as AWS products.
“To be clear, this is not illegal. But we think it is wrong, and not conducive to sustainable open-source communities.”
Sadly, open-source lovers can stand up and yell, but we have a feeling it won’t do much good. Amazon is far too strong to simply do anything but steamroll in the way it already knows. Look, for example, at how they have even recently begun dipping their toe in the motor oil business. Clearly, there is no safe haven, even open-source, from this titan.
Patrick Roland, November 6, 2018
DarkCyber for November 6, 2018, Is Now Available: Part Two, Amazon’s Disruptive Thrust
November 6, 2018
DarkCyber for November 6, 2018, is now available at www.arnoldit.com/wordpress and on Vimeo at https://vimeo.com/298831585
In this program, DarkCyber explains how Amazon is using open source software and proprietary solutions to reinvent IBM’s concept of vendor lock in.
Decades ago, IBM used mainframes and their proprietary hardware and software to create a barrier to change for government agencies using the systems. Amazon’s approach is to provide a platform which makes use of open source software to allow the US government to make necessary changes to software.
Amazon also offers value added functionality ranging from hardware like the DeepLens smart surveillance devices to patented analytics for real time cross correlation of data. Government agencies using these proprietary components will find themselves dependent on Amazon despite the support for open source software. Stephen E Arnold, author of CyberOSINT, said: “Amazon’s use of open source makes it easy for customers to make changes to the Amazon policeware system. However, Amazon’s value adding proprietary software allows Amazon to lock in government agencies who want access to Amazon’s most advanced services, features, and functions. Amazon wants to reinvent IBM’s approach to lock in for the 21st century.”
An added twist is that many of the providers of policeware and advanced intelligence systems use the Amazon cloud platform to deliver their products and services to US government agencies. Examples include Palantir Technologies, 4iQ and Webhose. Companies leveraging Amazon’s platform have an advantage over firms which use other cloud solutions. However, in the longer terms, Amazon can exercise control over vendors, partners, and integrators as part of a lock in strategy tuned to the 21st century computing realities.
Watch for the third part of this four part series on November 13, 2018.
Kenny Toth, November 6, 2018
Amazon Will Morph Whole Foods into Amazon. What Else?
October 31, 2018
File this one under “Duh,” as articulated by Captain Obvious. People are starting to get concerned about the ways in which Whole Foods will change under Amazon’s ownership. While it’s surprising that folks didn’t see the writing on the wall from day one, we can understand why they are so upset after reading the recent Guardian piece, “‘They Want Us to Be Robots’: Whole Foods Workers Fear Amazon Change.”
According to the article:
“The employee explained that under Amazon, Whole Foods workers are expected to do more with restricted labor budgets and often perform duties above their rank without being properly compensated. In addition, his region’s capital expenditure budget has been frozen.”
While it might seem surprising to see a grocery store being run this way, and it certainly doesn’t sound like a fun working environment, this is Amazon’s modus operandi. Look at how they took online shoe seller Zappos and cut it down to a lean, mean machine. This is the tradeoff for efficiency and low prices. The question is: will consumers put up with it. It’s a tricky tightrope, because we all want character and fulfilling jobs, but we also have to look at our family’s bottom line, as well. Amazon is betting that the latter wins out.
Patrick Roland, October 31, 2018
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