Google Is Great. Its AI Is the Leader, Just As Philco Was
July 15, 2025
No smart software involved with this blog post. (An anomaly I know.)
The Google and its Code Red Yellow or whatever has to pull a revenue rabbit out of its ageing Stetson. (It is a big Stetson too.) Microsoft found a way to put Googzilla on its back paw in January 2023. Mr. Nadella announced a deal with OpenAI and ignited the Softies to put Copilot in everything, including the ASCII editor Notepad.
Google demonstrated a knee jerk reaction. Put Prabhakar in Paris to do a stand up about Google AI. Then Google reorganized its smart software activities… sort of. The wizards at Google has pushed out like a toothpaste tube crushed by a Stanford University computer science professor’s flip flops. Suffice it to say there are many Google AI products and services. I gave up trying to keep track of them months ago.
What’s happened? Old-school, Google searches are work now. Some sites have said that Google referral traffic is down a third or more.
What’s up?
“Google Faces Threat That Could Destroy Its Business” offers what I would characterize as a Wall Street MBA view of the present day Google. The write up says:
As the AI boom continues to transform the landscape of the tech world, a new type of user behavior has begun to gain popularity on the web. It’s called zero-click search, and it means a person searches for something and gets the answer they want without clicking a single link. There are several reasons for this, including the AI Overview section that Google has added to the top of many search result pages. This isn’t a bad thing, but what’s interesting is why Google is leaning into AI Overview in the first place: millions of people are opening ChatGPT instead of Google to search for the things they want to know.
The cited passage suggests that Google is embracing one-click search, essentially marginalizing the old-school list of links. Google has made this decision because of or in response to OpenAI. Lurking between the lines of the paragraph is the question, “What the heck is Google doing?”
On July 9, Reuters exclusively reported that OpenAI would soon launch its own web browser to challenge Google Chrome’s dominance.
This follows on OpenAI’s stating that it would like to buy the Chrome browser if the US government forces Google to sell is ubiquitous data collection interface with users. Start ups are building browsers. Perplexity is building browsers. The difference is that OpenAI and Perplexity will use AI as plumbing, not an add on. Chrome is built as a Web 1 and Web 2 service. OpenAI and Perplexity are likely to just go for Web 3 functionality.
What’s that look like? I am not sure, but it will not come from some code originally cooked up someplace like Denmark and refurbished many times to the ubiquitous product we have today.
My view is that Google is somewhat disorganized when it comes to smart software. As the company tries to revolutionize medicine, create smart maps, and build expensive self driving taxis — people are gravitating to ChatGPT which is now a brand like Kleenex or Xerox. Perplexity is a fan favorite at the moment as well. To add some spice to the search recipe, Anthropic and outfits like China Telecom are busy innovating.
What about Google? We are about to learn how a former blue chip consultant will give Google more smarts. Will that intelligence keep the money flowing and growing? Why be a Debbie Downer. Google is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Those legal actions are conspiracies fueled by jealous competitors. Those staff cutback? Just efficiencies. Those somewhat confusing AI products and services? Hey, you are just not sufficiently Googley to see the brilliance of Googzilla’s strategy.
Okay, I agree. Google is wonderful and the Wall Street MBA type analysis is wonky, probably written with help from Grok or Mistral. Google is and will be wonderful. You can search for examples too. Give Perplexity a try.
Stephen E Arnold, July 15, 2025
Killing Consulting: Knowledge Draculas Live Forever
July 14, 2025
No smart software involved with this blog post. (An anomaly I know.)
I read an opinion piece published in the Substack system. The article’s title is “The Consulting Crash Is Coming.” This title is in big letters. The write up delivers big news to people who probably did not work at large consulting companies; specifically, the blue chip outfits like McKinsey, Bain, BCG, Booz, Allen, and a handful of others.
The point of the write up is that large language models will put a stake in the consulting Draculas.
I want to offer several observations as a former full-time professional at one of the blue chip outfits and a contractor for a couple of other pay-for-knowledge services firms.
First, assume that Mr. Nocera is correct. Whatever consulting companies remain in business will have professionals with specific work processes developed by the blue chip consulting firms. Boards, directors, investors, non-governmental organizations, individual rich people, and institutions like government agencies and major academic institutions want access to the people and knowledge value of the blue chip consulting firms. A consulting company may become smaller, but the entity will adapt. Leaders of organizations in the sectors I identified will hire these firms. An AT Kearney-type of firm may be disappeared, but for the top tier, resiliency is part of the blue chip DNA.
Second, anyone familiar with Stuart Kauffman (Santa Fe Institute) is familiar with his notion of spontaneous order, adjacency, and innovations creating more innovations. As a result of this de facto inferno of novelty and change, smart people will want to hire other smart people in the hopes of learning something useful. One can ask a large language model or its new and improved versions. However, blue chip consulting firms and the people they attract usually come up with orthogonal ideas and questions. The knowledge exercise builds the client’s mental strength. That is what brings clients to the blue chip firm’s door.
Third, blue chip consulting firms can be useful proxies for [a] reorganizing a unit and removing a problematic officer, [b] figuring out what company to buy, how to chop it up, and sell of the parts for a profit, [c] thinking about clever ways to deploy new technology because the blue chip professionals have first hand expertise from many different companies and their work processes. Where did synthetic bacon bits originate? Answer: A blue chip consulting company. A food company just paid the firm to assemble a team to come up with a new product. Bingo. Big seller.
Fourth, hiring a blue chip consulting firm conveys prestige to some clients. Many senior executives suffer from imposter syndrome. Many are not sure what happened to generate so much cash and market impact. The blue chip firm delivers “colleagues” who function to reduce the senior executive’s anxiety. Those senior executives will pay. My boss challenged Jack Welch in a double or nothing bet worth millions in consulting fees regarding a specific report. Mr. Welch loved the challenge from a mere consulting firm. The bet was to deliver specific high value information. We did. Mr. Welch paid the bill for the report he didn’t like and the one that doubled the original fee. He said, “We will hire you guys again. You think the way I do.”
Net net: Bring on the LLMs, the AI, the smart back office workflows. The blue chip consulting firms may downsize; they may recalibrate; they will not go away. Like Draculas, they keep getting invited back, to suck fees, and probably live forever.
Stephen E Arnold, July 14, 2025
Deezer: Not Impressed with AI Tunes
July 14, 2025
Apparently, musical AI models have been flooding streaming services with their tracks. But ai music is the tune for the 21st century is it not? The main problem: these bots can divert payments that should have gone to human artists. Now, we learn from MSN, “Streaming Platform Deezer Starts Flagging AI-Generated Music.” The article, originally published at The Economic Times, states:
“Deezer said in January that it was receiving uploads of 10,000 AI tracks a day, doubling to over 20,000 in an April statement — or around 18% of all music added to the platform. The company ‘wants to make sure that royalties supposed to go to artists aren’t being taken away’ by tracks generated from a brief text prompt typed into a music generator like Suno or Udio, Lanternier said. AI tracks are not being removed from Deezer’s library, but instead are demonetised to avoid unfairly reducing human musicians’ royalties. Albums containing tracks suspected of being created in this way are now flagged with a notice reading ‘content generated by AI’, a move Deezer says is a global first for a streaming service.”
Probably a good thing. Will other, larger streaming services follow suit? Spotify, for one, is not yet ready to make that pledge. The streaming giant seems squeamish to wade into legal issues around the difference between AI- and human-created works. It also points to the lack of a “clear definition” for entirely AI-generated audio.
How does Deezer separate the human-made tunes from AI mimicry? We learn:
“Lanternier said Deezer’s home-grown detection tool was able to spot markers of AI provenance with 98% accuracy. ‘An audio signal is an extremely complex bundle of information. When AI algorithms generate a new song, there are little sounds that only they make which give them away… that we’re able to spot,’ he said. ‘It’s not audible to the human ear, but it’s visible in the audio signal.’"
Will bots find a way to eliminate such tell-tale artifacts? Will legislation ever catch up to reality? Will Big Streaming feel pressure to implement their own measures? This will be an interesting process to follow.
Cynthia Murrell, July 14, 2025
Win Big at the Stock Market: AI Can Predict What Humans Will Do
July 10, 2025
No smart software to write this essay. This dinobaby is somewhat old fashioned.
AI is hot. Click bait is hotter. And the hottest is AI figuring out what humans will do “next.” Think stock picking. Think pitching a company “known” to buy what you are selling. The applications of predictive smart software make intelligence professionals gaming the moves of an adversary quiver with joy.
“New Mind-Reading’ AI Predicts What Humans Will Do Next, And It’s Shockingly Accurate” explains:
Researchers have developed an AI called Centaur that accurately predicts human behavior across virtually any psychological experiment. It even outperforms the specialized computer models scientists have been using for decades. Trained on data from more than 60,000 people making over 10 million decisions, Centaur captures the underlying patterns of how we think, learn, and make choices.
Since I believe everything I read on the Internet, smart software definitely can pull off this trick.
How does this work?
Rather than building from scratch, researchers took Meta’s Llama 3.1 language model (the same type powering ChatGPT) and gave it specialized training on human behavior. They used a technique that allows them to modify only a tiny fraction of the AI’s programming while keeping most of it unchanged. The entire training process took only five days on a high-end computer processor.
Hmmm. The Zuck’s smart software. Isn’t Meta in the midst of playing catch up. The company is believed to be hiring OpenAI professionals and other wizards who can convert the “also in the race” to “winner” more quickly than one can say “billions of dollar spent on virtual reality.”
The write up does not just predict what a humanoid or a dinobaby will do. The write up reports:
n a surprising discovery, Centaur’s internal workings had become more aligned with human brain activity, even though it was never explicitly trained to match neural data. When researchers compared the AI’s internal states to brain scans of people performing the same tasks, they found stronger correlations than with the original, untrained model. Learning to predict human behavior apparently forced the AI to develop internal representations that mirror how our brains actually process information. The AI essentially reverse-engineered aspects of human cognition just by studying our choices. The team also demonstrated how Centaur could accelerate scientific discovery.
I am sold. Imagine. These researchers will be able to make profitable investments, know when to take an alternate path to a popular tourist attraction, and discover a drug that will cure male pattern baldness. Amazing.
My hunch is that predictive analytics hooked up to a semi-hallucinating large language model can produce outputs. Will these predict human behavior? Absolutely. Did the Centaur system predict that I would believe this? Absolutely. Was it hallucinating? Yep, poor Centaur.
Stephen E Arnold, July 10, 2025
Apple and Telegram: Victims of Their Strategic Hubris
July 9, 2025
No smart software to write this essay. This dinobaby is somewhat old fashioned.
What’s “strategic hubris”? I use this bound phrase to signal that an organization manifests decisions that combine big thinking with a destructive character flow. Strategy is the word I use to capture the most important ideas to get an organization to generate revenue and win in its business and political battles. Now hubris. A culture of superiority may be the weird instinct of a founder; it may be marketing jingo that people start believing; or it is jargon learned in school. When the two come together, some organizations can make expensive, often laughable, mistakes. Examples range from Windows and its mobile phone to the Ford Edsel.
I read “Apple Reaches Out to OpenAI, Anthropic to Build Out Siri technology.” In my opinion, this illustrates strategic hubris operating on two pivot points like a merry-go-round: Up and down; round and round.
The cited article states:
… over the past year or so it [Apple] has faced a variety of leadership and technological challenges developing Apple Intelligence, which is based on in-house foundation models. The more personalized Siri technology with more personalized AI-driven features is now due in 2026, according to a statement by Apple …
This “failure” is a result of strategic hubris. Apple’s leadership believed it could handle smart software. The company taught China how to be a manufacturing super power could learn and do AI. Apple’s leadership seems to have followed the marketing rule: Fire, Aim, Ready. Apple announced AI or Apple Intelligence and then failed to deliver. Then Apple reorganized and it failed again. Now Apple is looking at third party firms to provide the “intelligence” for Apple.
Personally I think smart software is good at some things and terrible at others. Nevertheless, a failure to provide or “do” smart software is the digital equivalent of having a teacher put a dunce cap on a kid’s head and making him sit in the back of the classroom. In the last 18 months, Apple has been playing fast and loose with court decisions, playing nice with China, and writing checks for assorted fines levied by courts. But the premier action has been the firm’s failure in the alleged “next big thing”.
Let me shift from Apple because there is a firm in the same boat as the king of Cupertino. Telegram has no smart software. Nikolai Durov is, according to Pavel (the task master) working on AI. However, like Apple, Telegram has been chatting up (allegedly) Elon Musk. The Grok AI system, some rumors have it, would / could / should be integrated into the Telegram platform. Telegram has the same strategic hubris I associated with Apple. (These are not the only two firms afflicted with this digital SARS variant.)
I want to identify several messages I extracted from the Apple and Telegram AI anecdotes:
- Both companies were doing other things when the smart software yachts left the docks in Half Moon Bay
- Both companies have the job of integrating another firm’s smart software into large, fast-moving companies with many moving parts, legal problems, and engineers who are definitely into “strategic hubris”
- Both companies have to deliver AI that does not alienate existing users and attract new customers at the same time.
Will these firms be able to deliver a good enough AI solution? Probably. However, both may be vulnerable to third parties who hop on a merry-go-round. There is a predictable and actually no-so-smart pony named Apple and one named Messenger. The threat is that Apple and Telegram have been transmogrified into little wooden ponies. The smart people just ride them until the time is right to jump off.
That’s one scenario for companies with strategic hubris who missed the AI yachts when they were under construction and who were not on the expensive machines when they cast off. Can the costs of strategic hubris be recovered? The stakeholders hope so.
Stephen E Arnold, July 9, 2025
Humans May Be Important. Who Knew?
July 9, 2025
Here is an AI reality check. Futurism reports, “Companies that Replaced Humans with AI Are Realizing their Mistake.” You don’t say. Writer Joe Wilkins tells us:
“As of April, even the best AI agent could only finish 24 percent of the jobs assigned to it. Still, that didn’t stop business executives from swarming to the software like flies to roadside carrion, gutting entire departments worth of human workers to make way for their AI replacements. But as AI agents have yet to even pay for themselves — spilling their employer’s embarrassing secrets all the while — more and more executives are waking up to the sloppy reality of AI hype. A recent survey by the business analysis and consulting firm Gartner, for instance, found that out of 163 business executives, a full half said their plans to ‘significantly reduce their customer service workforce’ would be abandoned by 2027. This is forcing corporate PR spinsters to rewrite speeches about AI ‘transcending automation,’ instead leaning on phrases like ‘hybrid approach’ and ‘transitional challenges’ to describe the fact that they still need humans to run a workplace.”
Few workers would be surprised to learn AI is a disappointment. The write-up points to a report from GoTo and Workplace Intelligence that found 62% of employees say AI is significantly overhyped. Meanwhile, 45 percent of IT managers surveyed paint AI rollouts as scattered and hasty. Security concerns and integration challenges were the main barriers, 56% of them reported.
Anyone who has watched firm after firm make a U-turn on AI-related layoffs will not be surprised by these findings. For example, after cutting staff by 22% last year, finance startup Klarna announced a recruitment drive in May. Wilkins quotes tech critic Ed Zitron, who wrote in September:
“These ‘agents’ are branded to sound like intelligent lifeforms that can make intelligent decisions, but are really just trumped-up automations that require enterprise customers to invest time programming them.”
Companies wanted a silver bullet. Now they appear to be firing blanks.
Cynthia Murrell, July 9, 2025
We Have a Cheater Culture: Quite an Achievement
July 8, 2025
The annual lamentations about AI-enabled cheating have already commenced. Professor Elizabeth Wardle of Miami University would like to reframe that debate. In an opinion piece published at Cincinnati.com, she declares, “Students Aren’t Cheating Because they Have AI, but Because Colleges Are Broken.” Reasons they are broken, she writes, include factors like reduced funding and larger class sizes. Fundamentally, though, the problem lies in universities’ failure to sufficiently evolve.
Some suggest thwarting AI with a return to blue-book essays. Wardle, though, believes that would be a step backward. She notes early U.S. colleges were established before today’s specialized workforce existed. The handwritten assignments that served to train the wealthy, liberal-arts students of yesteryear no longer fit the bill. Instead, students need to understand how things work in the present and how to pivot with change. Yes, including a fluency with AI tools. Graduates must be “broadly literate,” the professor writes. She advises:
“Providing this kind of education requires rethinking higher education altogether. Educators must face our current moment by teaching the students in front of us and designing learning environments that meet the times. Students are not cheating because of AI. When they are cheating, it is because of the many ways that education is no longer working as it should. But students using AI to cheat have perhaps hastened a reckoning that has been a long time coming for higher ed.”
Who is to blame? For one, state legislatures. Many incentivize universities to churn out students with high grades in majors that match certain job titles. State funding, Wardle notes, is often tied to graduates hitting high salaries out of the gate. Her frustration is palpable as she asserts:
“Yes, graduates should be able to get jobs, but the jobs of the future are going to belong to well-rounded critical thinkers who can innovate and solve hard problems. Every column I read by tech CEOs says this very thing, yet state funding policies continue to reward colleges for being technical job factories.”
Professor Wardle is not all talk. In her role as Director of the Howe Center for Writing Excellence, she works with colleagues to update higher-learning instruction. One of their priorities has been how to integrate AI into curricula. She writes:
“The days when school was about regurgitating to prove we memorized something are over. Information is readily available; we don’t need to be able to memorize it. However, we do need to be able to assess it, think critically about it, and apply it. The education of tomorrow is about application and innovation.”
Indeed. But these urgent changes cannot be met as long funding continues to dwindle. In fact, Wardle argues, we must once again funnel significant tax money into higher education. Believe it or not, that is something we used to do as a society. (She recommends Christopher Newfield’s book “The Great Mistake” to learn how and why free, publicly funded higher ed fell apart.) Yes, we suspect there will not be too much US innovation if universities are broken and stay that way. Where will that leave us?
Cynthia Murrell, July 8, 2025
Google Fireworks: No Boom, Just Ka-ching from the EU Regulators
July 7, 2025
No smart software to write this essay. This dinobaby is somewhat old fashioned.
The EU celebrates the 4th of July with a fire cracker for the Google. No bang, just ka-ching, which is the sound of the cash register ringing … again. “Exclusive: Google’s AI Overviews Hit by EU Antitrust Complaint from Independent Publishers.” The trusted news source which reminds me that it is trustworthy reports:
Alphabet’s Google has been hit by an EU antitrust complaint over its AI Overviews from a group of independent publishers, which has also asked for an interim measure to prevent allegedly irreparable harm to them, according to a document seen by Reuters. Google’s AI Overviews are AI-generated summaries that appear above traditional hyperlinks to relevant webpages and are shown to users in more than 100 countries. It began adding advertisements to AI Overviews last May.
Will the fine alter the trajectory of the Google? Answer: Does a snowball survive a fly by of the sun?
Several observations:
- Google, like Microsoft, absolutely has to make its smart software investments pay off and pay off in a big way
- The competition for AI talent makes fat, confused ducks candidates for becoming foie gras. Mr. Zuckerberg is going to buy the best ducks he can. Sports and Hollywood star compensation only works if the product pays off at the box office.
- Google’s “leadership” operates as if regulations from mere governments are annoyances, not rules to be obeyed.
- The products and services appear to be multiplying like rabbits. Confusion, not clarity, seems to be the consequence of decisions operating without a vision.
Is there an easy, quick way to make Google great again? My view is that the advertising model anchored to matching messages with queries is the problem. Ad revenue is likely to shift from many advertisers to blockbuster campaigns. Up the quotas of the sales team. However, the sales team may no longer be able to sell at a pace that copes with the cash burn for the alleged next big thing, super intelligence.
Reuters, the trusted outfit, says:
Google said numerous claims about traffic from search are often based on highly incomplete and skewed data.
Yep, highly incomplete and skewed data. The problem for Google is that we have a small tank of nasty cichlids. In case you don’t have ChatGPT at hand, a cichlid is fish that will kill and eat its children. My cichlids have names: Chatty, Pilot girl, Miss Trall, and Dee Seeka. This means that when stressed or confined our cichlids are going to become killers. What happens then?
Stephen E Arnold, July 7, 2025
Worthless College Degrees. Hey, Where Is Mine?
July 4, 2025
Smart software involved in the graphic, otherwise just an addled dinobaby.
This write up is not about going “beyond search.” Heck, search has just changed adjectives and remains mostly a frustrating and confusing experience for employees. I want to highlight the information (which I assume to be 100 percent dead accurate like other free data on the Internet) about the “17 Most Useless College Degrees Employers Don’t Want Today.” Okay, high school seniors, pay attention. According to the estimable Finance Buzz, do not study these subjects and — heaven forbid — expect to get a job when you graduate from an online school, the local college, or a big-time, big-bucks university; I have grouped the write up’s earthworm list into some categories; to wit:
Do gooder work
- Criminal justice
- Education (Who needs an education when there is YouTube?)
Entertainment
- Fashion design
- Film, video, and photographic arts
- Music
- Performing arts
Information
- Advertising
- Creative writing (like Finance Buzz research articles?)
- Communications
- Computer science
- Languages (Emojis and some English are what is needed I assume)
Real losers
- Anthropology and archaeology (I thought these were different until Finance Buzz cleared up my confusion)
- Exercise science
- Religious studies
Waiting tables and working the midnight check in desk
- Culinary arts (Fry cook until the robots arrive)
- Hospitality (Smile and show people their table)
- Tourism (Do not fall into the volcano)
Assume the write up is providing verifiable facts. (I know, I know, this is the era of alternative facts.) If we flash forward five years, the already stretched resources for law enforcement and education will be in an even smaller pickle barrel. Good for the bad actors and the people who don’t want to learn. Perhaps less beneficial to others in society. I assume that one can make TikTok-type videos and generate a really bigly income until the Googlers change the compensation rules or TikTok is banned from the US. With the world awash in information and open source software available, who needs to learn anything. AI will do this work. Who in the heck gets a job in archaeology when one can learn from UnchartedX and Brothers of the Serpent? Exercise. Play football and get a contract when you are in middle school like talented kids in Brazil. And the cruise or specialty restaurant business? Those contracts are for six months for a reason. Plus cruise lines have started enforcing no video rules on the staff who were trying to make day in my life videos about the wonderful cruise ship environment. (Weren’t these vessels once called “prison ships”?) My hunch is that whoever assembled this stellar research at Finance Buzz was actually but indirectly writing about smart software and robots. These will decimate many jobs in the idenfied
What should a person study? Nuclear physics, mathematics (applied and theoretical maybe), chemistry, biogenetics, materials science, modern financial management, law (aren’t there enough lawyers?), medicine, and psychology until the DRG codes are restricted.
Excellent way to get a job. And in what field was my degree? Medieval religious literature. Perfect for life-long employment as a dinobaby essayist.
Stephen E Arnold, July 4, 2025
Apple Fix: Just Buy Something That Mostly Works
July 4, 2025
No smart software involved. Just an addled dinobaby.
A year ago Apple announced AI which means, of course, Apple Intelligence. Well, Apple was “held back”. In 2025, the powerful innovation machine made the iPhone and Macs look a bit like the Windows see-through motif. Okay.
I read “Apple Reportedly Has a Secret Plan to Quickly Gain Ground in the AI Race.” I won’t point out that if information is circulating AND appears in an article, that information is not secret. It is public relations and marketing output. Second, forget the split infinitive. Since few recognize that datum is singular and data is plural or that the word none is singular, I won’t mention it. Obviously few “real” journalists care.
Now to the write up. In my opinion, the big secret revealed and analyzed is …
Sources report that the company is giving serious consideration to bidding for the startup Perplexity AI, which would allow it to transplant a chunk of expertise and ready-made technology into Apple Park and leapfrog many of the obstacles it currently faces. Perplexity runs an AI-powered search engine which can already perform the contextual tricks which Apple advertised ahead of the iPhone 16 launch but hasn’t yet managed to build into Siri.
Analysis of this “secret” is a bit underwhelming. Here’s the paragraph that is supposed to make sense of this non-secret secret:
Historically, Apple has been wary of large acquisitions, whereas rivals, such as Facebook (buying WhatsApp for $22 billion) and Google (acquiring cloud security platform Wiz for $32 billion), have spent big to scoop up companies. It could be a mark of how worried Apple is about the AI situation that it’s considering such a major and out-of-character move. But after a year of headaches and obstacles, it also could pay off in a big way.
Okay, but what about Google acquiring Motorola? What about Microsoft’s clever purchase of Nokia? And there are other examples. Big companies buying other companies can work out or fizzle. Where is Dodgeball now? Orkut?
The actual issue strikes me as Apple’s failure to recognize that smart software — whether it works particularly well or not — was a marketing pony to ride in the technical circus. Microsoft got the message, and it seems that the marketing play triggered Google. But the tie up seems to be under a bit of stress as of June 2025.
Another problem is that buying AI requires that the purchaser manage the operation, ensure continued innovation of an order slightly more demanding that imitating a Windows interface, and getting the wizard huskies to remain hooked to the dog sled.
What seems to be taking place is a division of the smart software world into three sectors:
- Companies that “do” large language models; for example, Google, OpenAI, and others
- Companies that “wrap” large language models and generate start ups that are presented as AI but are interfaces
- Companies that “integrate” or “glue on” AI to an existing service, platform, or system.
Apple failed at number 1. It hasn’t invented anything in the AI world. (I think I learned about Siri in a Stanford Research Institute presentation many, many years ago. (No, it did not work particularly well even in the demo.)
Apple is not too good at wrapping anything. Safari doesn’t wrap. Safari blazes its own weird trail which is okay for those who love Apple software. For someone like me, I find it annoying.
Apple has demonstrated that it could not “glue on” SIRI.
Okay, Apple has not scored a home run with either approach one, two, or three.
Thus, the analysis, in my opinion, is that Apple like some other outfits now realize smart software — whether it is 100 percent reliable — continues to generate buzz. The task for Apple, therefore, is to figure out how to convert whatever it does into buzz. Skip the cost of invention. Sidestep wrapping AI and look for “partners” who do what department stores in the 1950s: Wrap my holiday gifts. And, three, try to make “glue on” work.
Net net: Will Apple undertake auto de fe and see the light?
Stephen E Arnold, July 4, 2025
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