Meg Whitman Prediction: From Advocates of Quitting
January 15, 2016
I love predictions. Most folks forget the ones which do not materialize. The others get a moment of Internet fame and then die like day lilies.,
I read an interesting chunk of prognosticative fluff in “Meg Whitman Will Leave HP and 4 Other Predictions For 2016.”
The prediction is that Ms. Whitman will “declare victory” and head to a more halcyon place. Fortune asks, “Who could blame her?”
That’s nifty. A quitter. I suppose when one works at Fortune, the idea of quitting is a pretty attractive one.
Will Ms. Whitman depart? I don’t know. I do know that the litigation she spawned will continue through 2016 and probably years to come.
When she departs, the law firms dealing with her Autonomy allegations may give her a bouquet of —what?—day lilies?
Stephen E Arnold, January 15, 2016
More Open Source Smart Software
January 15, 2016
The gift giver this time is Baidu. Navigate to “Baidu Open-Sources Its WARP-CTC Artificial Intelligence Software.” Baidu’s method is call the connectionist temporal classification or CTC method. Is the innovation from the Middle Kingdom? Nah. Switzerland. You know, the country where Einstein whacked away with his so so computational skills.
According to the write up:
The CTC approach involves recurrent neural networks (RNNs), an increasingly common component used for a type of AI called deep learning. Recurrent nets have been shown to work well even in noisy environments.
Have at the code, gentle read. The link is https://github.com/baidu-research/warp-ctc
Stephen E Arnold, January 14, 2016
Hello, Big Algorithms
January 15, 2016
The year had barely started and it looks lime we already have a new buzzword to nestle into our ears: big algorithms. The term algorithm has been tossed around with big data as one of the driving forces behind powerful analytics. Big data is an encompassing term that refers to privacy, security, search, analytics, organization, and more. The real power, however, lies in the algorithms. Benchtec posted the article, “Forget Big Data-It’s Time For Big Algorithms” to explain how algorithms are stealing the scene.
Data is useless unless you are able to are pull something out of it. The only way get the meat off the bone is to use algorithms. Algorithms might be the powerhouses behind big data, but they are not unique. The individual data belonging to different companies.
“However, not everyone agrees that we’ve entered some kind of age of the algorithm. Today competitive advantage is built on data, not algorithms or technology. The same ideas and tools that are available to, say, Google are freely available to everyone via open source projects like Hadoop or Google’s own TensorFlow…infrastructure can be rented by the minute, and rather inexpensively, by any company in the world. But there is one difference. Google’s data is theirs alone.”
Algorithms are ingrained in our daily lives from the apps run on smartphones to how retailers gather consumer detail. Algorithms are a massive untapped market the article says. One algorithm can be manipulated and implemented for different fields. The article, however, ends on some socially conscious message about using algorithms for good not evil. It is a good sentiment, but kind of forced here, but it does spur some thoughts about how algorithms can be used to study issues related to global epidemics, war, disease, food shortages, and the environment.
Whitney Grace, January 15, 2016
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
Strong and Loud or Quiet and Weak, Googles Robot Grandkids Fail to Impress the Marines
January 15, 2016
The article titled Why the Marines Don’t Want Google’s Robot Soldiers in Combat on Fortune discusses the downside of the Google-owned company Boston Dynamics’ robots. You might guess, moral concerns, or more realistically, funding. But you would be wrong, since DARPA already shelled out over $30 million for the four-legged battle bots. Instead, the issue is that a single robot, which looks like a huge insect wearing a helmet and knee and elbow pads, emits a noise akin to a motorcycle revving, or a jackhammer drilling, for small movements. The article explains,
“Anyone who’s seen Boston Dynamics’ four-legged robots in action typically is wowed by their speed, strength, and agility, but also note how loud they are. They sound like chainsaws on steroids. And that decibel level is apparently a problem for potential customers, namely the U.S. military.
For Marines who took the robot out for a spin, that noise is apparently a deal breaker. “They took it as it was: a loud robot that’s going to give away their position.”
The reason for all this hullaballoo on the part of the robot is its gas engine, intended for increased robustness. The military was looking for a useful helpmate capable of carrying heavy loads of up to 400 lbs. There has been some back and forth between military representatives and Boston Dynamics, but the current state of affairs seems to be a quieter, and weaker, robot. Not ideal.
Chelsea Kerwin, January 15, 2016
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
Google Has Some Supporters in China
January 14, 2016
Google, China wants you back. Well, more accurately, some folks in China what Google back. What is needed is unbiased search results.
According to “Chinese Citizens Are Boycotting Search Engine Baidu—and Praying for Google to Come Back”:
This week, though, tens of thousands of Chinese citizens pledged to boycott Baidu entirely, after they discovered the Beijing company has been earning profits by giving chronically ill users biased information through its chat rooms, known as “post bar” services.
The write up explains:
Launched in 2003, Baidu Post Bar, or Tieba, is a massive online community with about 19 million discussion groups that range from food to films to foreign affairs. Tieba’s numerous illness-related post bars serve as online support groups, where patients share experiences about their diseases and treatment.
Then there was a hint that Baidu was in the dark:
A Baidu spokesman told Quartz he couldn’t say what percentage of Baidu’s 19 million post bar groups were run by a commercial partner.
Yep, there’s is nothing like an objective, ad supported search system to deliver the results folks need, want, believe to be accurate.
The only hitch may be the Chinese authorities who are able to reflect on companies which tell China what to do.
Stephen E Arnold, January 14, 2016
What Makes You Ill? Social Media? Nope
January 14, 2016
I read “Loneliness, Social Networks, and Health: A Cross-Sectional Study in Three Countries.” The study reveals that people who are unhappy also get sick.
Lots of effort went into this statement:
In all three countries, loneliness was the variable most strongly correlated with health after controlling for depression, age, and other covariates. Loneliness contributed more strongly to health than any component of the social network.
My hunch is that those who are believers in social media will be able to link Snapchat snaps and Reddit posts with feeling good and being healthy.
I have a different view of social media and its possible benefits: Social media posts are outstanding sources of data for those who want to predict where a Google Map thinks you will go. Other groups like social media data as well; for example, bad actors.
My thought is that heavy users of social media may find themselves making new friends. For example, when you get out of your autonomous vehicle and know no one, you can ask, “Yo, dude, where am I?” Then say, “Let’s be friends.” This is a great ice breaker in Woodlawn, for instance.
Another function is that your college roomie now supporting certain groups of interest may open some new “friendship doors.” For example, if an investigative group exploring relationships with certain tools, you will spend quite a bit of time with your new friends.
Social media, therefore, addresses loneliness. That leads to a healthier life. Obvious, no?
Stephen E Arnold, January 14, 2016
Reverend Bayes Is Inevitable
January 14, 2016
I read “R Users Will Now Inevitably Become Bayesians.” Years ago a non mathy content management maven told me that Bayes’s methods were baloney. There is not much one can do to undo misspent youth and a lack of a technical background in things that require numbers in my experience.
The write up explains that wrestle with R will find themselves turning into adherents of Bayes’s methods, and I assume these R fans will end up looking like this:
The notion of inverse probability, according the write up,
Bayesian modeling is a general machine that can model any kind of regression you can think of….With the advent of
brmsandrstanarm, R users can now use extremely flexible functions from within the familiar and powerful R framework. Perhaps we won’t all become Bayesians now, but we now have significantly fewer excuses for not doing so. This is very exciting!
I feel a tingle, but I don’t think the CMS oriented, non mathy types will experience much of a quiver. Too bad.
Stephen E Arnold, January 14, 2016
The Duck Quacks 12 Million Queries
January 14, 2016
DuckDuckGo keeps waddling through its search queries and quacking that it will not track its users information. DuckDuckGo has remained a small search engine, but its privacy services are chipping away at Google and search engines’ user base. TechViral shares that “DuckDuckGo The Anti-Google Search Engine Just Reached A New Milestone” and it is reaching twelve million search queries in one day!
In 2015, DuckDuckGo received 3.25 billion search queries, showing a 74 percent increase compared to the 2014 data. While DuckDuckGo is a private oasis in a sea of tracking cookies, it still uses targeted ads. However, unlike Google DuckDuckGo only uses ads based on the immediate keywords used in a search query and doesn’t store user information. It wipes the search engine clean with each use.
DuckDuckGo’s increase of visitors has attracted partnerships with Mozilla and Apple. The private search engine is a for profit business, but it does have different goals than Google.
“Otherwise, it should be noted that although he refuses to have the same practices as Google, DuckDuckGo already making profits, yes that’s true. And the company’s CEO, Gabriel Weinberg, stop to think it is necessary to collect information about users to monetize a search engine: ‘You type car and you see an advertisement for a car, Google follows you on all these sites because it operates huge advertising networks and other properties. So they need these data for search engines to follow you.’ ”
DuckDuckGo offers a great service for privacy, while it is gaining more users it doesn’t offer the plethora of services Google does. DuckDuckGo, why not try private email, free office programs, and online data storage? Would you still be the same if you offered these services?
Whitney Grace, January 14, 2016
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
Advice for Marketers, Not Consumers, on the Present and Future States of Location Data Technology
January 14, 2016
The article on Mashable titled Location Data’s Dirty Secret: How Accuracy is Getting Lost in Today’s Data Shuffle relates the bad news for marketers, and hugely relieving news for paranoid consumers, that location data quality is far from precise. The money being funneled into location-targeted mobile ad revenues is only part of the picture, but it does illustrate the potential power of this technology for marketers, who want to know everything they can about shopping habits and habits in general. But they may be spending on useless data. In fact, the article states,
“Studies indicate that more than half of mobile location data is inaccurate. In fact, a report from the MMA offers a laundry list of variables that negatively impact location data quality. Culprits include a “lack of accuracy standards and market education,” “urban density,” “inaccurate interpretations” of location data that have been translated into a latitude/longitude coordinate and poor “data freshness.”
The article is largely optimistic that if marketers do a little research into the source of their locating data, they will know whether it can be trusted or not. That, and an objective third party will help marketers avoid big money-wasting mistakes. Must be nice to be a marketer instead of a consumer, the latter has little chance to avoid being a pawn followed around the chess board by her cell phone.
Chelsea Kerwin, January 14, 2016
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
Quote to Note: The Future and Niche Magazines about Issues
January 13, 2016
I find “real” publishers a source of entertainment. In this particular incident, I want to highlight two themes:
- A Silicon Valley success believes that a dead tree publication can be given the digital rework and succeed
- Pumping $20 million into a dead tree outfit says something about money management and common sense in the digital world
Navigate to “Owner of New Republic Puts IT Back on Market.” If you have to pay to view the story, hunt down the January 12, New York Times (dead tree edition) and look for page B 5.
The main idea is that a Facebook whiz bought a magazine, reorganized, pumped in dough, and apparently failed.
The notion of “saving” an outfit is one that gives new life to stakeholders, employees, and others involved in the operation. Think Yahoo and the Xoogler. How is that working out?
The reality is that success in a digital endeavor may be a matter of luck, timing, and the missteps of some other competitors. Google emerged from a pretty disappointing Web search idea when it was inspired by the Overture/GoTo pay to play model.
Tucked into this mini business case about a financial black hole was this quote to note:
“The New Republic has been a money-losing proposition for 100 years,” said Jacob Weisberg, who once worked for the magazine, and is now the chairman of the Slate Group. “The idea that anyone is going to turn it into a business now, when it has never been harder, is implausible.” In his letter, Mr. Hughes said that his aim “is to place The New Republic in the hands of the most promising and dedicated potential steward.” That might take many forms, he said. “Perhaps it should be run as part of a larger digital media company, as a center-left institute of ideas, or by another passionate individual willing to invest in its future,” he wrote. “There are many possibilities.”
Perhaps Jeff Bezos or Sheldon Adelson quality as potential buyers?
Are there management lessons to be learned from this experiment in Digital Age management? Yep.
One might be having cash to invest in a money losing magazine may not generate a fungible return. One upside is that business schools can create an interesting case for future MBAs to consider.
Stephen E Arnold, January 13, 2016
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