ChatGPT: Smoked by GenX MBA Data
December 8, 2025
Another dinobaby post. No AI unless it is an image. This dinobaby is not Grandma Moses, just Grandpa Arnold.
I saw this chart from Sensor Tower in several online articles. Examples include TechCrunch, LinkedIn, and a couple of others. Here’s the chart as presented by TechCrunch on December 5, 2025:
Yes, I know it is difficult to read. Complain to WordPress, not me, please.
The seven columns are labeled Date starting on January 2025. I am not sure if this is December 2024 data compiled in January 2025 or end of January 2025 data. Meta data would be helpful, but I am a dinobaby and this is a very GenX-type of Excel chart. The chart then presents what I think are mobile installs or some action related to the “event” captured when the Sensor Tower data receives a signal. I am not sure, and some remarks about how the data were collected would be helpful to a person disguised as a dinobaby. The column heads are not in alphabetical order. I assume the hassle of alphabetizing was too much work for whoever created the table. Here’s the order:
- ChatGPT
- Microsoft 365 Copilot
- Google Gemini
- Perplexity
- Grok
- Claude
The second thing I noticed was that the data do not reflect individual installs or uses. Thus, these data are of limited use to a dinobaby like me. Sure, I can see that ChatGPT’s growth slowed (if the numbers are on the money) and Gemini’s grew. But ChatGPT has a bigger base and it may be finding it ore difficult to attract installs or events so the percent increase seems to shout, “Bad news, Sam AI-Man.”
Then there is the issue of number of customers. We are now shifting from the impression some may have that these numbers represent individual humans to the fuzzy notion of app events. Why does this matter? Google and Microsoft have many more corporate and individual users than the other firms combined. If Google or Microsoft pushes or provides free access, those events will appeal to the user base and the number of “events” will jump. The data narrow Microsoft’s AI to Microsoft 365 Copilot. Google’s numbers are not narrowed. They may be, but there is not metadata to help me out. Here’s the Microsoft column:
As a result, the graph of the Microsoft 365 Copilot looks like this:
What’s going on from May to August 2025? I have no clue. Vacations maybe? Again that old fashioned metadata, footnotes, and some information about methodology would be helpful to a dinobaby. I mention the Microsoft data for one reason: None of the other AI systems listed in the Sensor Tower data table have this characteristic. Don’t users of ChatGPT, Google, et al, go on vacation? If one set of data for an important company have an anomaly, can one trust the other data. Those data are smooth.
If I look at the complete array of numbers, I expected to see more ones. There is some weird Statistics 101 “law” about digit frequency, and it seems to this dinobaby that it’s not being substantiated in the table. I can overlook how tidy the numbers are because why not round big numbers. It works for Fortune 1000 budgets and for many government agencies’ budgets.
A person looking at these data will probably think “number of users.” Nope, number of events recorded by Sensor Tower. Some of the vendors can force or inject AI into a corporate, governmental, or individual user stream. Some “events” may be triggered by workflows that use multiple AI systems. There are probably a few people with too much time and no money sense paying for multiple services and using them to explore a single topic or area in inquiry; for example, what is the psychological make up of a GenX MBA who presents data that can be misinterpreted.
Plus, the AI systems are functionally different and probably not comparable using “event” data. For example, Copilot may reflect events in corporate document editing. The Google can slam AI into any of its multi-billion user, system, or partner activities. I am not sure about Claude (Anthropic) or Grok. What about Amazon? Nowhere to be found I assume. The Chinese LLMs? Nope. Mistral? Crickets.
Finally, should I raise the question of demographics? Ah, you say, “No.” Okay, I am easy. Forget demos; there aren’t any.
Please, check out the cited article. I want to wrap up by quoting one passage from the TechCrunch write up:
Gemini is also increasing its share of the overall AI chatbot market when compared across all top apps like ChatGPT, Copilot, Claude, Perplexity, and Grok. Over the past seven months (May-November 2025), Gemini increased its share of global monthly active users by three percentage points, the firm estimates.
This sounds like Sensor Tower talking.
Net net: I am not confident in GenX “event” data which seems to say, “ChatGPT is losing the AI race.” I may agree in part with this sentiment, but the data from Sensor Tower do influence me. But marketing is marketing.
Stephen E Arnold, December 8, 2025
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