A Positive State of AI: Hallucinating and Sloppy but Upbeat in 2025

October 21, 2025

This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

Who can resist a report about AI authored on the “interwebs.” Is this a variation of the Internet as pipes? The write up is “Welcome to State of AI Report 2025.” When I followed the links, I could read this blog post, view a YouTube video, work through more than 300 online slides, or see “live survey results.” I must admit that when I write a report, I distribute it to a few people and move on. Not this “interwebs” outfit. The data are available for those who are in tune, locked in, and ramped up about smart software.

An anxious parent learns that a robot equipped with agentic AI will perform her child’s heart surgery. Thanks, Venice.ai. Good enough.

I appreciate enthusiasm, particularly when I read this statement:

The existential risk debate has cooled, giving way to concrete questions about reliability, cyber resilience, and the long-term governance of increasingly autonomous systems.

Agree or disagree, the report makes clear that doom is not associated with smart software. I think that this blossoming of smart software services, applications, and apps reflects considerable optimism. Some of these people and companies are probably in the AI game to make money. That’s okay as long as the products and services don’t urge teens to fall in love with digital friends, cause a user mental distress as a rabbit hole is plumbed, or just output incorrect information. Who wants to be the doctor who says, “Hey, sorry your child died. The AI output a drug that killed her. Call me if you have questions”?

I could not complete the 300 plus slides in the slide deck. I am not a video type so the YouTube version was a non-starter. However, I did read the list of findings from t he “interwebs” and its “team.” Please, consult the source documents for a full, non-dinobaby version of what the enthusiastic researchers learned about 2025. I will highlight three findings and then offer a handful of comments:

OpenAI is the leader of the pack. That’s good news for Sam AI-Man or SAMA.
“Commercial traction accelerated.” That’s better news for those who have shoveled cash into the giant open hearth furnaces of smart software companies.
Safety research is in a “pragmatic phase.” That’s the best news in the report. OpenAI, the leader like the Philco radio outfit, is allowing erotic interactions. Yes, pragmatic because sex sells as Madison Avenue figured out a century ago.

Several observations are warranted because I am a dinobaby, and I am not convinced that smart software is more than a utility, not an application like Lotus 1-2-2 or the original laser printer. Buckle up:

The money pumped into AI is cash that is not being directed at the US knowledge system. I am talking about schools and their job of teaching reading, writing, and arithmetic. China may be dizzy with AI enthusiasm, but their schools are churning out people with fundamental skills that will allow that nation state to be the leader in a number of sectors, including smart software.
Today’s smart software consists of neural network and transformer anchored methods. The companies are increasingly similar and the outputs of the different systems generate incorrect or misleading output scattered amidst recycled knowledge, data, and information. Two pigs cannot output an eagle except in a video game or an anime.
The handful of firms dominating AI are not motivated by social principles. These firms want to do what they want. Governments can’t reign them in. Therefore, the “governments” try to co-opt the technology, hang on, and hope for the best. Laws, rules, regulations, ethical behavior — forget that.

Net net: The State of AI in 2025 is exactly what one would expect from Silicon Valley- and MBA-type thinking. Would you let an AI doc treat your 10-year-old child? You can work through the 300 plus slides to assuage your worries.

Stephen E Arnold, October 21, 2025

Written by Stephen E. Arnold · Filed Under AI, Consulting, Marketing, News

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Stephen E. Arnold monitors search, content processing, text mining and related topics from his high-tech nerve center in rural Kentucky. He tries to winnow the goose feathers from the giblets. He works with colleagues worldwide to make this Web log useful to those who want to go "beyond search". Contact him at sa [at] arnoldit.com. His Web site with additional information about search is arnoldit.com.