Spelling Adobe: Is It Ado-BEEN, Adob-AI, or Ado-DIE?

September 29, 2025

This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.

Yahoo finance presented an article titled “Morgan Stanley Warns AI Could Sink 42-Year-Old Software Giant.” The ultimate source may have been Morgan Stanley. An intermediate source appears to be The Street. What this means is that the information may or may not be spot on. Nevertheless, let’s see what Yahoo offers as financial “news.”

The write up points out that generative AI forced Adobe to get with the smart software program. The consequence of Adobe’s forced march was that:

The adoption headlines looked impressive, with 99% of the Fortune 100 using AI in an Adobe app, and roughly 90% of the top 50 accounts with an AI-first product.

Win, right? Nope. The article reports:

Adobe shares have tanked 20.6% YTD and more than 11% over six months, reflecting skepticism that AI features alone can push its growth engine to the next level.

Loss, right? Maybe. The article asserts:

Although Adobe’s AI adoption is real, the monetization cadence is lagging the marketing sizzle. Also, Upsell ARPU and seat expansion are happening. Yet ARR growth hasn’t re-accelerated, which raises some uncomfortable questions for the Adobe bulls.

Is the Adobe engine of growth and profit emitting wheezes and knocks? The write up certainly suggests that the go-to tool for those who want to do brochures, logos, and videos warrants a closer look. For example:

Essentially free video creation tools with smart software included are available from Blackmagic, the creators of actual hardware and the DaVinci video software. For those into surveillance, there is the “free” CapCut
The competition is increasing. As the number of big AI players remains stable, the outfits building upon these tools seems to be increasing. Just the other day I learned about Seedream. (Who knew?)
Adobe’s shift to a subscription model makes sense to the bean counters but to some users, Adobe is not making friends. The billing and cooing some expected from Adobe is just billing.
The product proliferation with AI and without AI is crazier than Google’s crypto plays. (Who knew?)
Established products have been kicked to the curb, leaving some users wondering when FrameMaker will allow a user to specify specific heights for footnotes. And interfaces? Definitely 1990s.

From my point of view, the flurry of numbers in the Yahoo article skip over some signals that the beloved golden retriever of arts and crafts is headed toward the big dog house in the CMYK sky.

Stephen E Arnold, September 29, 2025

Written by Stephen E. Arnold · Filed Under AI, Business strategy, Financial, News

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Stephen E. Arnold monitors search, content processing, text mining and related topics from his high-tech nerve center in rural Kentucky. He tries to winnow the goose feathers from the giblets. He works with colleagues worldwide to make this Web log useful to those who want to go "beyond search". Contact him at sa [at] arnoldit.com. His Web site with additional information about search is arnoldit.com.