Innovation Is Like Gerbil Breeding: It Is Tough to Produce a Panda
September 8, 2025
Just a dinobaby sharing observations. No AI involved. My apologies to those who rely on it for their wisdom, knowledge, and insights.
The problem is innovation is a tough one. I remember getting a job from a top dog at the consulting firm silly enough to employ me. The task was to chase down the Forbes Magazine list of companies ordered by how much they spend on innovation. I recall that the goal was to create an “estimate” or what would be a “model” today of what a company of X size should be spending on “innovation.”
Do that today for an outfit like OpenAI or one of the other US efforts to deliver big money via the next big thing and the result is easy to express; namely, every available penny is spent trying to create something new. Yep, spend the cash innovating. Think it, and the “it” becomes real. Build “it,” and the “it” draws users with cash.
A recent and somewhat long essay plopped in my “Read file.” The article is titled “We’ve Lost the Plot with Smartphones.” (The write up requires signing up and / or paying for access.)
The main idea of the essay is that smartphones, once heralded as revolutionary devices for communication and convenience, have evolved into tools that undermine our attention and well-being. I agree. However, innovation may not fix the problem. In my view, the fix may be an interesting effort, but as long as there are gizmos, the status quo will return.
The essay suggests that the innovation arc of such devices like a toaster or the mobile phone solves problems or adds obvious convenience to a user otherwise unfamiliar with the device. Like Steve Jobs suggested, users have to see and use a device. Words alone don’t do the job. Pushing deck chairs around a technology yacht does not add much to the value of the device. This is the “me too” approach to innovation or what is often called “featuritis.”
Several observations:
- Innovations often arise without warning, no matter what process is used
- The US is supporting “old” businesses, and other countries are pushing applied AI, which may be a better bet
- Big money innovation usually surfs on month, years, or decades of previous work. Once that previous work is exhausted, the brutal odds of innovation success kick in. A few winners will emerge from many losers.
One of the oddities is the difficulty of identifying a significant or substantive innovation. That seems to be as difficult to do as set up a system to generate innovation. In short, technology innovation reminds me of gerbils. Start with a few and quickly have lots of gerbils. The problem is that you have gerbils and what you want is something different.
Good luck.
Stephen E Arnold, September 8, 2025
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