Win Big at the Stock Market: AI Can Predict What Humans Will Do
July 10, 2025
No smart software to write this essay. This dinobaby is somewhat old fashioned.
AI is hot. Click bait is hotter. And the hottest is AI figuring out what humans will do “next.” Think stock picking. Think pitching a company “known” to buy what you are selling. The applications of predictive smart software make intelligence professionals gaming the moves of an adversary quiver with joy.
“New Mind-Reading’ AI Predicts What Humans Will Do Next, And It’s Shockingly Accurate” explains:
Researchers have developed an AI called Centaur that accurately predicts human behavior across virtually any psychological experiment. It even outperforms the specialized computer models scientists have been using for decades. Trained on data from more than 60,000 people making over 10 million decisions, Centaur captures the underlying patterns of how we think, learn, and make choices.
Since I believe everything I read on the Internet, smart software definitely can pull off this trick.
How does this work?
Rather than building from scratch, researchers took Meta’s Llama 3.1 language model (the same type powering ChatGPT) and gave it specialized training on human behavior. They used a technique that allows them to modify only a tiny fraction of the AI’s programming while keeping most of it unchanged. The entire training process took only five days on a high-end computer processor.
Hmmm. The Zuck’s smart software. Isn’t Meta in the midst of playing catch up. The company is believed to be hiring OpenAI professionals and other wizards who can convert the “also in the race” to “winner” more quickly than one can say “billions of dollar spent on virtual reality.”
The write up does not just predict what a humanoid or a dinobaby will do. The write up reports:
n a surprising discovery, Centaur’s internal workings had become more aligned with human brain activity, even though it was never explicitly trained to match neural data. When researchers compared the AI’s internal states to brain scans of people performing the same tasks, they found stronger correlations than with the original, untrained model. Learning to predict human behavior apparently forced the AI to develop internal representations that mirror how our brains actually process information. The AI essentially reverse-engineered aspects of human cognition just by studying our choices. The team also demonstrated how Centaur could accelerate scientific discovery.
I am sold. Imagine. These researchers will be able to make profitable investments, know when to take an alternate path to a popular tourist attraction, and discover a drug that will cure male pattern baldness. Amazing.
My hunch is that predictive analytics hooked up to a semi-hallucinating large language model can produce outputs. Will these predict human behavior? Absolutely. Did the Centaur system predict that I would believe this? Absolutely. Was it hallucinating? Yep, poor Centaur.
Stephen E Arnold, July 10, 2025
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