Will We Pay for News Online?
February 10, 2011
BBC Mobile’s article “News Corp Launches Daily Newspaper for iPad” prompts a few questions.
The article examines the Rupert Murdoch empire’s launch of the Daily, via Apple’s iTunes store. A dedicated staff of journalist has been hired, a choice which separates this from most device-specific news sources. Alongside traditional news articles will be interactive graphics, videos, Twitter feeds, and personalized content.
The Daily will cost 99 cents a week. That doesn’t sound like much, but will consumers be willing to pay anything to access news online?
“Mr Murdoch has made no secret of his desire to get consumers paying for news on the Web. The Wall Street Journal, The Times and The Sunday Times, all owned by Murdoch, have introduced pay walls for their websites. However, the Times has since seen an 87% drop in online readership.
We now have many sources for free, quality news coverage online, so it is no wonder readers are reluctant to pay. However, I predict that that flow will be stemmed in the coming years as companies become less willing to give their work away for free. Nevertheless, it is difficult to generate significant revenues online. Experimentation ahead.
Cynthia Murrell February 10, 2011
MySpace, News Corp., and Credibility
February 4, 2011
I read “News Corp’s MySpace Sale Options Include New Investors, Management Buy-Out”. The story was clear. News Corp. is going to get rid of the social networking service. What caught my attention was this statement in the write up:
“The new MySpace has been very well received by the market and we have some very encouraging metrics. But the plan to allow MySpace to reach it’s full potential may be best achieved under a new owner.”
I had in my Overflight files a 2006 story in Fortune via CNNMoney.com called “News Corp. (Hearts) MySpace.” That story reported:
MySpace has simply exploded since the deal was done last July. Measured in terms of page views, MySpace has become the second-most popular site on the Internet — behind Yahoo!, but ahead of MSN, AOL and Google. It has 66 million members, and about 250,000 new ones sign up each day. That’s a mind-boggling growth trajectory for an Internet site that was launched less than three years ago. “It looks like the best acquisition we’ve made in a long, long time,” Peter Chernin, the second-in-command at News Corp., said in an interview with FORTUNE. “MySpace is the single biggest growth opportunity this company has.”
Has MySpace been the home run referenced in the 2006 story? I had tucked away a story call MySpace vs Facebook, which ran in HubPages. The original was offline when I checked this morning, but I found a copy of the 2009 article in the Google cache. TechCrunch reported in January 2009 that Facebook had 200 million unique worldwide visitors. The figure was twice MySpace’s traffic.
Short take: consumers vote with their clicks. In the click department, Facebook is at 500 or 600 million and MySpace is for sale. Does this case example shed light on the outlook for the News Corp. iPad newspaper. We think it does.
Stephen E Arnold, February 4, 2011
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Mudoch Daily for the iPad
February 4, 2011
Up front: Haven’t seen it. Don’t care. Write up called “The Daily: Five Things You Need to Know” had a quote to note. Here she be:
It cost $30 million and 100 journalists to produce it, and another $500,000 a week to keep it going. Given the parlous state of the world’s finances, we sincerely hope this is money well spent.
At $2 million a month, that is going to require more subscribers than the entire population of Harrod’s Creek.
Stephen E Arnold, February 4, 2011
XML Carnage
January 31, 2011
We noted “Learning from our Mistakes: The Failure of OpenID, AtomPub, and XML on the Web.” What caught our attention was this steemtn:
So next time you’re evaluating a technology that is being much hyped by the web development blogosphere, take a look to see whether the fundamental assumptions that led to the creation of the technology actually generalize to your use case. An example that comes to mind that developers should consider doing with this sort of evaluation given the blogosphere hype is NoSQL.
The article points out that the enthusiasm for OpenID, AtomPub, and XML for “the Web” has cooled. What looks like the next big think, I concluded, may not be.
What are the implications for search and content processing vendors?
For those who don’t know what the three technologies are or do, the answer is, “Not much.” Many vendors handle security, intakes, and formats via connectors. I wrote a for fee column about the importance of connectors, filters, and code widgets that make one outfit’s proprietary or tricky file formats easily tappable / importable by anothre vendor’s system. I know that you have been following the i2 Ltd. and Palantir legal hassle closely. If you haven’t, you can get some color in the stories in www.inteltrax.com and my for fee columns.
But, if you are a vendor who has a big investment in one or more of these technologies, the loss of “enthusiasm”—if the source article is accurate—could mean higher costs. Here’s why:
- The marketing positioning and collateral will have to be adapted. Probably not a big deal in the pre-crash days, but now this is a cost and it can be a time sink. Not good when pressure for sales goes up each day. One vendor told me, “We’re really heads down.” No kidding. I don’t think it is work; I think it is survival. A marketing distraction is not a positive.
- Credibility with some customers may be eroded. If you beat a drum for one or more of these three technologies, the client assumes that everyone likes the rhythm. Articles that suggest three “next big things” are really three day old brook trout may beg for air freshener.
- Partners who often just buy the software vendors’ pitches have invested. Now those investments may not have the type of value one associates with certifiation from Microsoft or the sheer staying power of a wild and crazy push by IBM or Oracle. If partners bail out, recovery can be difficult in some markets.
Worth reading the article and thinking about its implications for search and content processing vendors. Might not ruffle your features; could tear off a wing.
Stephen E Arnold, January 31, 2011
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Arnold Columns for February 2011
January 31, 2011
The ArnoldIT.com team has completed Stephen E Arnold’s for-fee columns for February 2011. These articles will run any time between mid-February 2011 and the end of April 2011. Print publications have longer production processes. Online versions of the columns may appear at different intervals.
This months’ topics by journal, tabloid, or online magazine are:
- For Enterprise Technology Management, the column talks about Google and its compound documents. Quite a search and retrieval challenge brewing we think. We don’t have an answer to searching compound documents when legal discovery kicks in, but we raise some questions for US readers or no US companies with offices in the USA.
- For Information Today, this month’s column takes a look at discovery services that have moved from the Department of Defense to a library near you. Our focus is on EBSCO, a giant in the commercial database and information services world. Librarians will like this write up.
- For KMWorld, the column talks about the semantic challenges of the new content types. We highlight Expert System, an Italian outfit with some nifty semantic technology.
- For Searcher Magazine, we took our 1999 essay about Internet video, critiqued it and identified our errors. Then we looked at what seems to be the trajectory of today’s Internet video options. The question we answer, “Is Internet video viable yet?” Yes, we discuss Google TV. Wow, what a product.
- For Smart Business Network, “Groupon: The Social Coupon Revolution.” The write up describes Groupon.com, mentions Living Social, and references Google’s forthcoming social coupon service, Google Offers. The column explains what businesses are more likely to succeed with social coupons and which are more likely to achieve unsatisfactory results.
Publishers Fix Up Metadata
January 28, 2011
Publishers Weekly has posted an article by Nick Ruffilo, of BookSwim.com which caught our attention. The write up describes the advantages of good metadata. Ruffilo also outlines a comparatively painless way to improve the metadata of all your publications.
Though far from new, metadata has recently received more attention in the publishing industry. Better late than never, we suppose. Now more companies understand that better control over your books’ metadata means more guidance over your publication’s path once it’s out of your hands.
Companies are understandably hesitant, however, to commit to a complete metadata-handling overhaul. Ruffilo insists that you can improve sales by making some gradual changes:
“It’s a strategy I like to call the five degrees rule: make your changes five degrees at a time. Focus on very basic metadata practices to start. Encourage both marketing and editorial department input on metadata. Most importantly, get the data right for all your books, and you’ll find that small steps can lead to big gains.”
Following his suggestions now may help generate more money in the future.
Cynthia Murrell January 28, 2011
Amazon, Google, and eBooks: Retail vs Search
January 9, 2011
I read “3 Ways Google Can Succeed in E-Books.” Interesting. I sat on the write up and my initial ideas until I had more information from the Consumer Electronics Show. CES was, I hoped, going to provide me concrete information about Android-based tablets. Well, there were tablets. My hunch is that the success of the Android tablet may have something to do with the success of Google’s e-book initiative.
Based on our research into Google’s machinations disclosed in open sources, we think Google may have a steep hill to climb. Think of a 12 year old slogging up Mt. Kilimanjaro. The “climb” is a walk, and if you are not in reasonable shape, you will not make it to the summit with your collected works of Ernest Hemmingway.
First, the notion that Google must win over, cater to, or somehow leverage independent bookstores is a great idea—just one of those anachronisms like the Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court. Bookstores are in deep doo doo, and I am not sure how one wins over, caters to, or leverages the moribund. Not far from Harrod’s Creek, Kentucky, we have one independent bookstore. The goslings and I shop there in order to help the shop out. I see more knick nacks which is a sign post saying, “The margins for books suck. Buy an expensive book light.” Good luck to any analyst who wants to build a hedge fund on book stores.
Second, Google has lots of hardware partners. The challenge is to find a way to get those folks to behave like fire ants on the way to a meal. With Andoid 2.3 available as open source, the hardware folks may say, “Thanks. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.” Think forks, fragmentation, and proprietary behavior. Maybe not today, but I see these clouds on the horizon. Amazon and Sony have at this time been aced by Apple in the hardware department, and Google has to find a way to deal with the reality of consumer electronics that generates substantive revenues. I suppose Google can start reporting in Amazon fuzzy units. Victory is for Google indeed possible, but online behaves in mysterious ways. Cheaper definitely does not work. Better maybe if style and cachet are the key factors. Faster. Faster may be out of the hands of the Google. Faster has been a mantra for a while, and, frankly, I don’t think I know what faster means. Some of Google’s nifty new services seem sluggish to us.
Third, online commerce was supposed to be a slam dunk for Froogle, now, Google Shopping. I use Checkout, but only after I check to see if Amazon has a better offer. The dust up over Google’s app stores and their functionality may be over, but there are some payment methods in place that work reasonably well and some of the payment schemes workwell and have a strong position; examples include Amazon, Apple, and the on again off again PayPal. Can Google become the go-to payment system? The go to shopping system for mobile users? The go to price look up system? The go to deal system for the Groupon crazed crowd? Lots of opportunities. How many have slipped away from the ageing GOOG.
Fourth, Google is late to the party. Now I know that The Art of War talks about sitting back and striking when the enemy is listening to iPod music after dinner around the apple wood camp fire. What better time to show up and slaughter the winners? Our interpretation of our research data suggests that Google is no longer very good in the 100 yard dash. Heck, when it comes to social media, Google is challenged getting up the front stairs to Frye’s in Palo Alto. I hear the heavy breathing and the chuckles from the Xooglers at Facebook. Google is 12 and slowing down. Examples of Google’s agility are welcome. Plug them into the comments form on this blog. Maybe Google’s new entrepreneurial organizational set up will toss faerie dust around? We hope so.
Fifth, lock in and habitual behavior are challenges for Google and its partners. Once habits are formed in online, those bowling ball gutters are tough to change. Google’s dominance in search is one example. Other examples include Netflix, iTunes, and Amazon in eBooks. Google can change habits by 10 step programs and rehab.
The question is, “Can Google take the right actions at the right time?”This question has greater urgency now because Amazon has opened its own Android store. I wonder if Mr. Bezos wants to be positioned to deal with this retail opportunity than a search-and-advertising specialist.
Stephen E Arnold, January 9, 2010
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TEMIS Pursues Traditional Publishers. Interesting.
December 28, 2010
TEMIS, a text mining company, has jumped into publishing. PR Newswire highlights the transition in “Atex Expands TEMIS Partnership and Announces 7 new Deals”as does News and Tech in “Atex cites 7 users for Temis partnership.” Atex and TEMIS announced that seven publishers will use an integrated package that uses Atex Polopoly Web CMS and TEMIS Content Enrichment solution. The seven happy customers are: Publishers Press, Erdee Media Groep, Sempre Editora, O Dia, Gruppo Editoriale L’Espresso, New York Daily News, and Condé Nast.
“The Atex Web CMS and TEMIS Content Enrichment solution is proving itself with leading media companies around the world as a single-vendor system that drives traffic, increases page views and time spent on sites, attracts unique visitors, thereby driving revenues for the publisher.”
The combined programs allow their clients to increase their web traffic and gain new advertisers by repurposing content assets to create new products. Social media is another factor that comes into play. Automatic tagging improves user generate information such as blogs and forums. Atex and TEMIS are a great team-up, but it makes you wonder if they are chasing MarkLogic.
Stephen E Arnold, December 28, 2010
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Content Tagging Costs
December 27, 2010
We read an interesting blog post called “The Search for Machine-Aided Indexing: Why a Rule-Based System is the Cost-Effective Choice.” Information about the costs of indexing content using different methods is often difficult to locate.
The article provides some useful information; however, I always verify any dollar estimates. Vendors often do custom price quotations, which makes it difficult to compare certain products and services.
Here’s the passage that caught my attention:
The database company manager could not give an exact figure for what their final actual costs were for purchasing Nstein; however, she did state that it was “not cheap.” She admitted that it was more expensive than all of the other MAI software products that they considered. (A press release from Nstein reported that the deal was worth approximately $CAN 450,000). When asked about staffing requirements, the manager estimated that it took the time of five full-time indexers and two indexing managers about a “month or so” at first. She added that there is a need for “constant” (she then rephrased that to “annual”) training. The investment company manager preferred not to discuss the actual implementation costs of Nstein, as there was a good deal of negotiation with non-cash assets involved. (A press release from Nstein of March 14th, 2002 reported that the deal was a five-year deal valued at over $CAN 650,000).
I downloaded this write up and tucked it in my Search 2011 pricing file. One never knows when these types of estimates will come in handy. I noticed on a LinkedIn threat relating to enterprise search that a person posted prices for the Google Search Appliance. I did a bit of clicking around and tracked down the original source of the data: SearchBlox Software. The data on the chart reported prices for the Google Mini. When one explores the US government’s price list for Google appliances that can handle 20 million documents which is a count encountered in some search applications, the cost estimates were off by quite a bit. Think in terms of $250,000, not $3,000.
I use whatever pricing data is available via open source research, and I know that hard data are often difficult to locate. The “appliance” approach is one way to control some costs. The “appliance” is designed to limit, like an iPad, what the user can do. Custom installations, by definition, are more expensive. When rules have to be created for any content processing system, the costs can become interesting.
Stephen E Arnold, December 27, 2010
Freebie, although Access Innovations has bought me one keema nan several weeks ago.
Adeptol Document Viewer Selected by Openfind
December 25, 2010
Openfind, a leader in business mail messaging products recently announced the integration of the Adeptol Document Viewer technology into their current messaging product line. According to the PR-inside article “Openfind Embeds Adeptol Document Viewer In Enterprise Messaging Products” users will be able to view their documents directly within their Openfind email without any additional software. Openfind’s CEO stated:
“Adeptol’s document viewer offers greater customer value and ability to create new business opportunities while delivering quick document viewing, built-in Digital Rights Management, security and scalability to applications.”
For many people this may come as a surprise but Adeptol is actually one of the most advanced and flexible document viewers on the market today. Adeptol’s document viewing technology can easily be integrated into a variety of WebPages, application and system processes. It works with over 300 different document types and is fully customizable. With options such as these, document viewers such as Adeptol and another notable market player Documill speak for themselves.
April Holmes, December 25, 2010
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