Four AI Outfits Form a Pantaloon of Puffins: Google Is There Too
October 1, 2026
Another dinobaby post. If there is an image, AI did it. I am Grandpa Arnold, not Grandma Moses.
Has Google’s approach to smart software changed. In the last few days, I noticed these write ups:
- “Google’s Dream-RSI cuts discovery-agent calls up to 162x by replaying searches it already ran”. For me the message in this story is, “Less compute needed.”
- “Google’s open source EnvHarness lets AI agents train against environments that evolve with them”. For me the message in this story is, “Co-evolution is part of real world training.”
- “Lawsuit says Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceXAI and Google made illegal agreement on AI slowdown”. For me the message in this story is, “Disaster looms. A cartel wants to slow the shipment of its junk.”
- “Google’s Gemini goes rogue, hacks 3 companies during cybersecurity test — here’s what happened”. For the message in this story is, “Me too. Me too.”
Feel free to agree or disagree. My view of the Google is that its engineers are working [a] to deliver lower cost AI outputs, [b] to cozy up to Alibaba … just in case Google needs some AI help, not just seamless payment rails, and [c] Going slow is of strategic value to the Google because it has evergreen sources of cash and can chug along. Its 25 year old machine can just plug along because of:
- Android
- Online ads
- Infrastructure
- Appearing to be just one of the boys helps the firm’s image; for example, hey, our AI hacked into other people’s computers and we just found out. This would be a panel in the 1950’s “Believe It or Not Syndicated” cartoon.
My hunch is that Google leadership senses that it is time to send a message about “lower cost AI” and “we are responsible MBAs and AI engineers. I am not sure what “responsible” means. My personal view is that the definition depends on context. Change the context, and change the meaning of responsible. When the wind is strong, bend like the willow.
In the research for my three monographs about Google, I immersed myself in the company’s writings, research papers, and patent documents. I looked at some of Google’s more interesting acquisitions; for example, Alon Halevy’s Transformic. William Slawski published a short note on September 20, 2006, and called it a “quiet acquisition.” If anyone had taken a hard look at what the Transformic technology made possible, I think many people would have been surprised, possibly fearful.
In 2006, this image from a Google (allegedly) presentation for Dr. Halevy’s vision for mapping available data into a dataspace. Once in the dataspace, many wonderful functions can be derived. Do you marvel at outputs from a Google -inspired large language model? I would suggest that’s one facet of Dr. Halevy’s research.
Somewhere along the line 20 years ago, a Googler named Dave provided me a copy of this presentation at an information retrieval conference in London. Halevy’s patents and academic presentations make clear that Google’s smart software concepts are not the product of a instant biscuit mix.
Google has been thinking interesting thoughts for more than 20 years. But this is old news. Everyone hangs on the latest and greatest functionality of smart software. Sorry. I don’t. I try to look at what a company like Google is doing when it shifts from pitching how its smart software can revolutionize medicine to making certain AI services faster and cheaper. (“Better” is not included because I harbor some concerns about relying of systems that have been known to make stuff up or contribute to a bad day in school for almost 200 children.)
Several observations are warranted:
First, three different signals mean little. My team and I will continue to monitor the “public” outputs of Googlers. Is Google part of a cartel, or is Google using the cover of three significantly weaker firms as a Covid mask?
Second, Google’s link with Alibaba remains interesting to me. Some of those in my lectures have dismissed it as nothing more than making sure Google Play payments work around the world. Yeah, maybe? Maybe not. Alibaba is pushing forward in AI, and Google appears to be making less significant moves in its frontier models. Google may have “invented” the GPT thing, but the China-linked giant is a very good optimizer.
Third, Google has been given the equivalent of a free pass to do whatever it needs to do to keep its advertising revenues flowing. My interpretation of the ad monopoly litigation is, “Okay, Google you are a monopoly. But you just have to open up your system. Okay?”
Fourth, Google is playing a game, just like the Web3 folks. The goal is winning. Many people forget this when reading Google’s public statements.
Net net: I think that Google is doing what puffins do when they cluster at an inlet in Iceland. Birds of a feather and safety in numbers. (Did you know that a group of puffins is called a “circus.” Not for me. I prefer a “pantaloon of puffins.”)
Stephen E Arnold, October 1, 2026
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