Lock In: Is This the Obvious AI Go Move?
August 3, 2026
I don’t trust much, including free or low cost AI from China. I am also cautious about China’s statements about its technology. I like to see others validate or question LLM performance data. I know that the Chinese government wants to be top technology dog, and may go to extraordinary lengths to capture that title. The Wire China asks an interesting question about the current state of China’s AI boom: “Can China Keep Its AI Open?”
Allegedly China’s Kimi K3 outperformed Anthropic’s most advanced AI offering. President XI Jinping was proud of the moment and praised open source technology at the World AI Conference in Shanghai. In the same speech, he warned that AI is accelerating at an advanced speed and he called for laws and regulations to be put in place. This is not surprising:
“Those two priorities of openness and security will become increasingly difficult to reconcile. As Chinese models approach the frontier, open-weight releases risk diffusing powerful AI capabilities beyond Beijing’s ability to control. Recent reporting suggests Beijing is already beginning to grapple with that dilemma. Nine days before President Xi’s remarks, Reuters revealed that China’s Commerce Ministry had convened Alibaba, ByteDance, and Z.ai to discuss curbing overseas access to their most advanced models, with options ranging as far as barring public release.”
China is known to be hypocritical, especially when the world’s eyes are focused on it. The Chinese government might have “selective openness” where the “good enough” models are left open source, while the best ones are kept under lock and key. However:
“The stakes extend well beyond China. Chinese models now account for the plurality of open-model downloads worldwide, meaning the line Beijing draws will shape both what developers and governments build on and which advanced AI capabilities are freely available to malicious actors. But selective openness only works if Beijing can tell which models are dangerous, and it currently lacks the evaluation tools to make that judgment.”
China likes open source because it is a way of undermining the perceived US hegemony in smart software. If China continues to support open source (at least on the surface), the country has leverage. (Could this be compared to Iran’s ability to make life difficult for those who want to traverse a certain waterway?) China likes subtle long term tactics.
Several observations are warranted:
- What happens if non-Chinese firms embrace Chinese open source smart software? IBM-like lock in may take place. Shifting from one platform to another is an often expensive task.
- What happens if Chinese smart software phones home or has the ability to install the capability after the cyber security wizards check out the code? If Anthropic and OpenAI cannot control their software, can the Chinese or say they cannot?
- What happens if Chinese smart software provides the rails to send freight cars chock full of malware into organizations? Apple can’t fix unintentional bugs quickly; could equally competent engineers respond to AI malware vectors operating inside of an organization’s systems?
Net net: Lock in worked for IBM, and it will work for others as well.
Whitney Grace, August 3, 2026
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